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  华尔街见闻

  三大美股指均收跌超2%,纳指一度跌近4%。财报前日特斯拉收跌6%,英伟达跌4.5%。UnitedHealth财报后两日暴跌27%,领跌道指。中概指数惊险反弹0.2%,阿里涨超1%。瑞郎涨超1%创十年新高。比特币一度涨近4000美元突破8.8万关口。黄金再创历史新高。原油一度跌超3%。

  越来越多迹象显示,特朗普的贸易战将导致美国经济陷入衰退。在此背景下,特朗普狂喷鲍威尔行动太迟,直呼立即降息,不然经济要放缓,加剧了投资者对美联储独立性和经济前景的担忧。美国资产周一重演股债汇三杀,黄金和避险性质的瑞郎等货币加速上涨,金价再创历史新高。

  美国关税政策的僵局正在损害本国经济并打击投资者信心。据央视新闻报道,特朗普原本期望速战速决的“关税战”已演变为“持久战”,特朗普内心焦虑无比。如今,诸多经济指标显示,这些关税政策可能将美国乃至全球多地推向经济衰退的边缘,而反复无常的“关税战”不仅未能压服他国,反而已使美国企业和民众承受巨大压力。

  不确定性削弱市场对美元资产的信心,两大美股指道指和纳指连续第四个交易日下跌,特斯拉和英伟达领跌MAG7。美债波动率也再度回升,长期美债的抛售导致收益率曲线急剧变陡。彭博衡量的美国政府债券与全球同类债券的比率已跌至2024年3月以来的最低水平,凸显出美国国债表现的迅速恶化。

  美元暴跌至去年10月份以来的低点,资金加速流向瑞郎、日元和黄金等避险资产。瑞郎涨超1%创十年新高,美元兑日元跌破141整数关口,日内跌幅一度超1%。黄金则飙升近3%,刷新高至3424美元/盎司。值得注意的是,目前金银比已来到105倍,接近历史最高水平。

  周一开盘,美国三大股指均受到重挫。纳指一度跌近4%,特斯拉和英伟达领跌科技股。标普500指数中的11个板块全线溃败,其中九个板块至少跌超2%,特斯拉所在的板块非必需消费品跌近3%。上周四公布一季度盈利逊色且下调指引的UnitedHealth进一步下跌,公布财报后两日累跌27%,领跌道指。

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