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醒来在丛林里和蛇做了蛇兽:剖析的成功之道

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4月24日,全球最大主权财富基金—挪威主权财富基金发布的一季度报告显示,公司一季度出现了4150亿克朗(约400亿美元)的投资亏损,而亏损的原因是其重仓的科技板块大幅下跌。

科技股拖累一季度巨亏

报告显示,截至2025年3月31日,该基金的整体规模为18.526万亿克朗,其中,70%投资于股票,27.7%投资于固定收益,1.9%投资于非上市房地产,0.4%投资于非上市可再生能源基础设施。

一季度,该基金整体规模下降了约1.215万亿克朗。其中,投资亏损4150亿克朗,挪威克朗走强导致汇兑损失8790亿克朗,政府资金流入780亿克朗。

从回报上看,该基金一季度股票投资回报率为-1.6%,固定收益投资回报率为1.6%,非上市房地产投资为2.4%,未上市可再生能源基础设施的回报率为1.2%。

“本季度受到重大市场波动的影响,我们的股权投资回报为负,主要是因为科技行业的下跌。”该基金首席执行官NicolaiTangen说。

科技股为何下跌?

从公司发布的2024年年报看,该基金前八大重仓股均为大型科技股。

挪威主权财富基金前十大重仓股(截至2024年12月31日)

从科技巨头一季度股价表现上看也确实让投资者失望。数据显示,美股科技七巨头指数下跌15%。其中,特斯拉下跌35%,英伟达下跌19%,苹果下跌11%,微软下跌10%。亚马逊下跌13%,谷歌下跌18%,Meta跌幅也有1%。

科技股领跌美国股市有多方面的原因。从宏观经济层面来看,美国经济前景的不确定性增加是重要因素。市场层面,此前美股科技股的持续上涨积累了较高估值,存在回调需求。自2024年以来,美股科技股在人工智能热潮等因素推动下大幅上涨,科技“七巨头”的市值迅速膨胀。然而,过高的估值使得股价较为脆弱,一旦市场出现风吹草动,就容易引发抛售。

政策层面上,美国政府所谓“对等关税”政策引发了市场的高度担忧。特朗普宣布对美国主要贸易伙伴征收关税,高盛策略师DavidKostin在报告中写道,由于这一政策影响了公司盈利预测,未来几个月美股仍有可能继续下跌。

而加拿大皇家银行资本市场策略师LoricaVasina认为,对于科技“七巨头”而言,它们业务广泛分布于全球,对国际贸易依赖度较高。例如苹果公司,其产品在全球多个国家生产组装,又销往世界各地,关税政策将增加其生产成本,压缩利润空间,同时也可能面临部分市场需求下降的风险。特斯拉在全球多地设有工厂和销售点,关税变动会影响其原材料采购成本、产品售价以及海外市场拓展,进而影响公司的盈利能力和市场预期,导致股价下跌。

企业自身业绩与发展预期方面,也存在诸多问题。以特斯拉为例,其在多个关键市场的销售数据不佳,投资者担心其盈利能力与其目前的高估值不匹配。特斯拉作为新能源汽车领域的领军企业,市场对其寄予厚望,但销售数据的不理想打破了部分投资者的乐观预期。

责编:李丹

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