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由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对中国征收的严厉关税影响了中国零售商，Meta(META.US)的核心在线广告业务今年可能会遭受70亿美元的损失。

根据MoffettNathanson周二发布的研究报告，在贸易争端期间，Temu和Shien等与中国有关联的零售商削减Facebook和Instagram广告预算将对Meta业绩造成影响。

MoffettNathanson分析师表示，根据Meta的最新年报，2024年该公司来自中国市场的营收为183.5亿美元，相当于其总销售额的11%多一点。与其他分析师一样，MoffettNathanson分析师认为，Temu和Shien构成了Meta中国业务的主要部分，如果这两家在线零售商今年削减广告投放，Meta2025年的广告销售额可能会受到70亿美元的影响。

分析师表示，在特朗普对中国征收关税后，Temu减少了在美国的广告支出，并且在苹果应用商店的排名大幅下降。

分析师在报告中写道：“中国市场对Meta业务的重要性怎么强调都不为过。虽然Meta没有提供欧洲境内各国家/地区的营收明细，但从逻辑上讲，我们可以推测中国是Meta仅次于美国的第二大营收来源——对于一个Meta没有用户或活跃平台的国家来说，这一地位非同寻常。”

如果美国经济像一些分析师所预测的那样陷入衰退，Meta的困境可能会更加严重。MoffettNathanson分析师表示，“真正持续的经济衰退”加上贸易争端“可能导致Meta在2025年损失230亿美元的广告营收，并使其2025年的盈利下降25%”。

分析师表示：“如前所述，我们认为Meta尤其容易受到中国广告商削减支出的影响。如果贸易紧张局势加剧引发或加剧经济衰退，Meta将面临双重打击：周期性广告疲软和中国广告支出定向下降。”

MoffettNathanson分析师仍维持对Meta的“买入”评级，但已将目标价下调185美元至525美元。

自特朗普第二次正式宣誓就任美国总统以来，Meta的股价下跌了约19%，至499.36美元。

该公司将于下周三公布第一季度财报。

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