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在美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)十多年前指控Meta非法垄断社交媒体市场后,双方终于迎来了对簿公堂的一天。FTC认为,Meta对Instagram和WhatsApp的收购属于典型的“扼杀式并购”,即通过收购潜在竞争对手来消除市场竞争,因此必须进行拆分。但Meta当前1.3万亿美元的市值,正是建立在Instagram的广告收入基础之上。若强制拆分,其市场价值恐将遭遇断崖式下跌。

买下对手更容易

美东时间4月14日,Meta与FTC的反垄断诉讼正式开庭,Meta首席执行官扎克伯格以“第一证人”的身份出席Meta的审判。

在政府提交的一份证据中,扎克伯格在2012年的内部电子邮件中曾写道,收购Instagram是为了压制潜在的竞争对手。FTC指出,根据美国反垄断法,这一行为是违法的。FTC强调,监管机构当年批准这些交易是重大决策失误。

为佐证这一主张,FTC将举证Meta旗下应用服务质量显著恶化,具体表现为:广告推送激增导致用户体验下降,用户隐私保护机制却持续弱化。

FTC认为,恢复美国社交媒体市场竞争的唯一途径是迫使Meta放弃对Instagram和WhatsApp的收购。政府表示,这将使小型社交媒体公司有能力争夺用户和广告收入,并削弱Meta对行业的控制。

“2010年Meta面临市场竞争环境剧变。”FTC首席庭审律师强调,“他们选择收购而非竞争。”据披露,Meta收购WhatsApp部分是为抗衡谷歌所发起的竞购意图,2013年还曾拟60亿美元收购Snap,但遭Snap拒绝。

扎克伯格在法庭上确认了这些邮件的真实性,但Meta激烈反驳FTC指控,强调其与TikTok、Snapchat、YouTube、iMessage以及前身为推特的X平台等多个社交媒体平台的激烈竞争形势,而非FTC所描述的Meta处于市场垄断地位。“FTC的指控既违背事实又违反法律。”Meta的律师表示。

Meta坚称其一直在公平竞争,监管现在是因为该公司的巨大成功而施以惩罚。Meta的律师还强调,对Instagram和WhatsApp的收购早在十多年前就获得了监管的批准,现在FTC的起诉意味着,所有在美国的交易都做不了数,可能在某一天被美国政府推翻。

互联网分析师杨世界对北京商报记者表示,若法院最终裁定分拆,将带来三重影响:其一,全球数十亿用户所依赖的社交产品生态将遭到破坏;其二,Meta历经十年打造的跨平台协同体系将瓦解;其三,美国政府既有的并购审查制度将面临根本性的质疑。

分拆将造成业务重创

该案审理预计持续两个月,很大程度上取决于FTC关于Facebook、Instagram和WhatsApp是否主导了个人社交网络市场。如果认定Meta违反了反垄断法,它将在之后裁定采取诸如拆分等补救措施,以恢复市场竞争。该案也有可能成为美国自40多年前拆分AT&T电话垄断业务以来,涉及金额最大的一桩反垄断案件。

同时,这场审判的结果将直接决定Meta未来商业模式的可持续性以及其市场估值的合理性。一直以来,Instagram被看做是公司的“利润引擎”。根据研究公司eMarketer的数据,Instagram上的广告预计将占Meta今年美国销售额的约50%。eMarketer首席分析师JasmineEnberg表示:失去Instagram将对Meta的业务造成巨大打击。

Enberg指出,与Facebook相比,Instagram的年轻用户持续增长,而Facebook在18—24岁年龄段的用户今年预计将下降2%。“在很多方面,Meta需要Instagram来保持用户参与度并继续吸引广告商”,Enberg补充道。

去年第三财季,依靠广告收入,包括Instagram、Facebook和WhatsApp在内的Meta应用系列FamilyofApps(FoA)营收达到403.19亿美元,同比增长19%。另一边,元宇宙相关部门、负责AR(增强现实)和VR(虚拟现实)业务的RealityLabs(现实实验室)三季度营收同比增长29%至2.7亿美元,但依然巨亏44.28亿美元。

当天,美股三大指数集体上涨。大型科技股涨跌不一,科技七巨头中,Meta跌逾2%,下跌幅度最大,收盘报531美元。

研究机构WolfeResearchLLC的分析师什韦塔·哈朱里亚(ShwetaKhajuria)表示,众多华尔街人士一直期望这起反垄断案件能够达成和解。哈朱里亚还称:“投资者并未对公司拆分做好心理准备。相比案件持续拖延给股价带来负面影响,和解是更有利的结果。”

另一个“如果”

该案件始于特朗普第一届执政时期,2020年底首次提起,后被法官驳回,因其认为FTC证据不足。拜登政府期间,FTC提交修改后的申诉,法官认为其解决了缺陷,案件重回正轨,现任共和党FTC主席弗格森表示将推动此案至判决。

除了被分拆的可能外,还有另一个“如果”引发市场讨论:特朗普是否会以某种方式进行干预。但市场预计,特朗普在第二个任期内,可能不会那么积极地实施反垄断监管。

此前,在接受公开采访时,特朗普表示,他不会像拜登那样谋求拆分谷歌,只会作出改变,让谷歌的竞争力“更加公平”。据报道,多位硅谷科技巨头的首席执行官在大选前夕都与特朗普取得联系。皮查伊称赞特朗普在竞选期间光顾麦当劳,贝索斯在7月特朗普躲过第一次暗杀后给特朗普打了电话。贝索斯和皮查伊也是祝贺特朗普胜选的主要科技界领袖之一。

康奈尔大学的科技政策研究所所长克雷普斯(SarahKreps)称:“特朗普在竞选过程中以及胜选后,得到许多科技巨头的支持,这表明他们认为特朗普对美国科技界的态度会比拜登政府更温和,也不太担心特朗普第二任期在反垄断方面呼吁拆分科技巨头。”

在今年的总统就职仪式上,扎克伯格还向特朗普就职基金捐赠了100万美元。随后,他又引入特朗普亲密盟友DanaWhite进入Meta的董事会。这些举动都被视为Meta对特朗普的示好。

值得一提的是,扎克伯格最近一次被目击是在4月2日的白宫。就在同一天,有报道称他正在敦促特朗普解决联邦贸易委员会的这起案件。

北京商报记者赵天舒

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