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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  京东、美团的对决再升级,显然不是外卖浅层之争,而是对即时零售市场的长远争夺。

  4月15日,美团正式发布即时零售品牌“美团闪购”,定位为24小时服务的购物平台,主打“30分钟送达”。其宣传视频中对传统电商配送的对比,出现“你的东东再等等”标语,配图与京东App标识中的狗形象高度相似,被外界解读为“内涵”京东。

  随后,京东黑板报发文“京东不打口水仗,但会坚持说实话”,要点包括:秒送业务发展迅速,京东本季度计划新增超5万名全职外卖员,全额承担五险一金费用;京东品质外卖日订单量突破500万单,GMV超越“幽灵外卖”千万单量;京东自营秒送“快于30分钟”,覆盖10万+品牌线下店,涵盖日常生活几乎所有品类,主打“自营品质+秒送服务”。

  内容几乎“针尖对麦芒”,一方暗讽传统电商配送慢,另一方批判“幽灵外卖”,再次点明全额承担骑手社保成本,强调即时零售“自营品质”且“快于30分钟”。

  口水仗背后即时零售进入2.0时代,升级到“万物闪电战”,平台正面硬刚“30分钟送万物”。

图片来源:视觉中国

  高频低频互切

  拆解来看,双方的战略动作形成了鲜明的对攻态势。

  今年2月,京东上线外卖业务,走的是“品质外卖”路线,招揽商家给出了“免佣”大礼包,还给全职外卖骑手缴纳五险一金,反攻美团餐饮外卖腹地。本质上,京东意在通过高频外卖业务吸引大量活跃的优质用户,并且京东外卖与其他业务之间的生态协同效应显著,外卖用户可以转化为全品类即时零售用户。

  4月15日,美团拆分闪购为独立品牌,以“30分钟VS次日达”的对比营销,暗指美团外卖配送速度与传统电商配送速度的差异。本质上,美团在做的事情,是将高频即时配送能力延伸到京东的3C数码、生活日用品等优势品类,但不止于此,进一步剑指“30分钟好货到手”的“下一代购物方式”。

  这场攻防战背后,是双方对于即时零售迈入“全品类即时化”深水区的共识:当配送时效压缩至半小时级别,商品品类丰富度与供应链稳定性成为新战场。

  从行业视角分析,双方都有即时零售的基础设施,但各有优劣势:

  美团方面,依托700多万骑手构建的分布式运力网络,将餐饮配送高峰期的调度能力复用于3C数码、日用品等品类。其优势在于高频打低频,满足海量外卖群体对其他品类商品的需求,并借助外卖履约能力,提升送达效率,降低配送成本。

  短板在于供应链控制力弱,依靠第三方商家的供货能力,尤其在3C数码领域,与京东多年沉淀的供应链基础尚不在同一维度。且家电领域的售后体系需要逐步搭建,安装调试服务有待提升。

  京东方面,供应链和品控能力一直是强项,售后服务能力和响应速度都是行业头部水平。其秒送业务的自营仓库、超10万家品牌合作店,形成了供应链壁垒。

  随着前期发力即时零售配送,以及京东外卖扩展配送队伍,其配送能力得到了改善。京东方面表示,平均配送时间“快于30分钟”。

  在官方表述中,京东秒送业务也发展迅速,4月15日,京东称本季度将再招收不低于5万名全职外卖员,且全额承担五险一金费用。

  京东的弱项在于,外卖业务处于起步阶段,需要攻克大量中小餐饮生态(这部分是美团强项),让消费者选择丰富起来,才能实现外卖业务的长期良性运行。末端配送能力方面,也需要进一步提升。

  消费者心智则是双方都需要下大功夫改变的因素。美团用户有“应急性购买”的历史标签,美团如何让外卖用户下单高价电子产品,有待加大供应能力、提升服务能力,改变消费者认知;京东外卖的商家和用户数量正在快速提升,但整体数量还不够,需要持续增加,进一步加大高频场景的创造,保障履约能力。

  商战升级、万亿赛道红利

  效率正在成为消费者下单的关键因素,消费行为从“计划性储备”向“即时性满足”变革。

  高线城市用户群体的时间成本攀升,30分钟送达已经成为重要的决策因素。埃森哲发布的《聚焦中国95后消费群体》报告显示,超过半数的95后希望在下单当天就能收到商品,并且愿意为更快的配送速度支付额外费用。对他们而言,“次日达”已经失去了吸引力,他们更愿意为“此刻就要”的确定性付费。

  且疫情后形成的即时购买习惯持续渗透,除了日常买菜,其他生活日用品如卫生巾、数据线、纸巾等品类正在快速扩展。即时零售正在从应急场景向日常消费场景渗透,消费者越来越习惯通过即时零售平台满足各类即时需求。

  这些因素叠加,中国即时零售正在快速发展。商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院发布的《即时零售行业发展报告2024》显示,2023年我国即时零售规模达到6500亿元,同比增长28.89%,占网络零售额的4.2%,比同期网络零售增速高出17.89个百分点,预计2030年将超过2万亿元,是居民消费的新增长点。

  参与即时零售市场争夺的,也不只有京东和美团。淘宝发力即时零售,首页新增“小时达”一级入口;抖音也提供即时配送服务,在部分城市推出“小时达”,用户在抖音直播间下单后,商品可以通过即时配送服务快速送达。

  对于消费者来说,意味着选择权的快速放大。从外卖,到电子产品,甚至是衣服、化妆品,都可以通过即时零售平台快速获取。用户短期受益于服务升级竞争,但长期行业格局变化仍需观察平台方在供应链稳定性、履约效率等核心能力方面的实际突破。

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