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改变世界的问答尼坤|是否会成为未来的主流应用?
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来源:华尔街见闻

阿波罗首席经济学家TorstenSlok预计,如果高关税继续有效,美国经济连续两个季度萎缩的概率高达90%,GDP将下降4个百分点。Slok认为,关税冲击零售业,最终将损害劳动力市场和消费者信心,提醒投资者应密切关注每周首次申请失业金报告,因为就业市场的疲软将首先在这里显现。

资管巨头警告,如果当前高关税政策持续存在,美国在2025年将"绝对"陷入经济衰退,并可能导致国内生产总值下降4个百分点。

阿波罗全球管理首席经济学家TorstenSlok周一在接受CNBC采访时表示,若当前高关税水平维持不变,美国2025年陷入衰退已成定局,"这完全取决于关税是否保持在这些水平,如果保持在这些水平,我们在2025年绝对会陷入衰退。“

Slok预计,如果高关税政策继续有效,美国经济连续两个季度萎缩的概率高达90%,国内生产总值将下降4个百分点。这一严峻预测远超华尔街其他机构的悲观预期,如摩根大通资产管理公司的DavidKelly此前预测的60%衰退概率。

关税冲击下的美国经济:衰退风险飙升至90%

阿波罗数据显示,美国平均需要18个月的时间才能完成一项贸易协议谈判。这一漫长过程的主要原因是贸易谈判极为复杂,涉及逐项审查每个国家的进口商品,并为每个产品类别协商关税。

谈判还包括讨论非关税壁垒、税收差异、原产地规则、知识产权、劳工标准、环境标准、反倾销措施、争端解决、数字贸易和电子商务、政府采购,有时甚至涉及安全和防务考量。

在美国同时与90个国家进行贸易谈判期间,全球贸易正陷入停滞,出现类似新冠疫情期间的问题:供应链挑战加剧,可能导致美国商店在几周内出现短缺,美国通胀上升,以及赴美旅游减少。

根据阿波罗的研究,如果目前的政策不变,美国经济可能面临所谓的"自愿贸易重置衰退"(VTRR),其概率高达90%。

要量化这种负面影响,可以将当前的关税增加与2018年贸易摩擦期间的情况进行比较。2018年贸易摩擦期间,美国平均关税税率从2%增加到3%,研究显示对GDP的负面影响在0.25%至0.7%之间。

使用这些最保守的估计计算当前从3%增加到18%的关税影响,2025年对GDP的负面影响可能接近4个百分点,这还不包括消费者支出决策和企业规划中当前不确定性增加带来的额外非线性效应。

小企业成最大受害者,失业潮或将来临

Slok特别强调,高关税将对小企业构成毁灭性打击,因为它们往往没有足够的现金储备来支付这些额外成本。Slok解释说,"因此,如果这种情况继续下去,我们将看到零售商破产的规模非常显著。"

阿波罗发布的研究显示,小企业占美国总就业人口的80%以上,也是资本支出的主要来源。由于小型企业长期依赖稳定的美国贸易体系,突然实施的高关税将迫使它们立即调整,而许多企业根本没有足够的营运资金来支付这些关税。

这种冲击可能导致船只滞留在海外,订单被取消,甚至是运营良好的家族零售企业申请破产。任何零售行业的衰退最终都将损害劳动力市场和消费者信心。根据阿波罗的数据,拥有少于500名员工的小企业占美国总就业人数的80%。

他特别提醒投资者应密切关注每周首次申请失业金报告,因为就业市场的疲软将首先在这里显现。Slok表示:"我们尚未在初请失业金数据中看到这一点,但预计会看到这种情况。"

风险提示及免责条款

市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

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