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  “目前的关税形势正让其他国家失去对美国的(投资)兴趣……情况非常令人担忧。”

  日本首相办公室高级经济顾问、日本最大饮料制造商之一三得利公司董事长兼首席执行官新浪刚史22日接受彭博社采访时警告,美国的关税措施已导致全球市场剧烈波动,可能引发美国经济衰退,并削弱其他国家对美国的投资意愿。

  他特别提到,美国的关税将对日本经济产生巨大负面影响,可能会使日本今年的国内生产总值(GDP)下降1%至1.2%。

  “日本不会在什么问题上都让步”

  美国总统特朗普本月初签署行政令,宣布对包括盟友在内的所有贸易伙伴加征“对等关税”。虽然对部分国家的“对等关税”后来被暂缓征收,但其中包含的10%“最低基准关税”以及此前已生效的25%汽车和钢铝关税仍然有效。

  这些关税,对日本的影响尤为显著。

  根据日本财务省22日公布的最新调查结果,约10%的日本企业表示,美国的关税措施已经直接影响到了它们的业务;更多的企业则对未来的关税冲击感到恐慌。

  另据日本《朝日新闻》19日至20日进行的民调,多达85%的日本受访者担忧特朗普政府的关税会对日本经济产生负面影响,其中43%的受访者表示非常担忧。

  此外,多达70%的受访者对日本政府与美国政府就关税问题进行的交涉不抱期待。

  虽然日本正在寻求通过谈判解决与美国的贸易问题,但面对特朗普政府的胁迫,这个一向听话的美国盟友也表现出了少有的硬气。

  日本首相石破茂21日在国会会议上强调,日方不会为达成关税协议而一味屈从于美国的要求,“如果日本什么都让步,那我们将无法保障我们的国家利益”。

  这被认为是美国发动关税战以来,石破茂最强硬的表态之一。

  此前,日本在野党立宪民主党众议员小熊慎司在众议院会议上也严厉批评美国的关税政策“逻辑荒谬且毫无一致性”。

  “这就像一个小混混在收保护费。如果日本屈服,就会开创一个很坏的先例。”

  除了说硬话,日本在具体行动上也有所表现。

  本月15日,日本反垄断机构——公正交易委员会认定美国科技巨头谷歌公司在日本市场违反了反垄断法,并向其发出禁令,要求其立即停止不正当竞争行为。

  禁令同时要求谷歌公司尽快成立由独立第三方组成的监督体系,在未来五年内持续监测相关整改措施的落实情况,并定期向日本公正交易委员会报告。

  据日媒观察,这是日本首次向美国科技巨头发出反垄断禁令。

  “欧洲不应对美国存有任何幻想”

  与日本相比,欧盟的反击更为系统化。

  作为美国的最大贸易伙伴之一,欧盟不断被特朗普指责“占美国便宜”,也因此受到美国更露骨的关税战威胁。

  根据国际货币基金组织22日发布的最新一期《世界经济展望报告》,受美国关税措施冲击和政策不确定性的影响,今年欧元区经济增长率预计将比之前下调0.2个百分点至0.8%。

  德国经济研究所日前发布的研究报告显示,未来四年内,美国“对等关税”措施可能令欧盟损失1.1万亿欧元,仅德国就将损失2900亿欧元。

  面对不讲理的美国,欧盟不仅已在货物贸易领域制定了反制计划,而且正积极准备拿美国对欧盟有巨额顺差的服务贸易出口“开刀”。

  欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩近日接受欧洲媒体采访时表示,如果与美国的谈判无法让其取消对欧关税,欧盟准备动用“最有力的贸易措施”将大西洋两岸的贸易战扩大到服务领域,包括对美国大型科技公司的数字广告收入征税、限制美国公司参与欧盟公共采购项目等。

  冯德莱恩强调,欧盟有4.5亿人口,民众生活水平高,这意味着在欧盟,数字服务有着巨大的营业额和利润,没有谁愿意失去进入这个市场的机会。

  “对它们(美国大型科技公司)来说,欧洲是一个非常有吸引力的多金市场。”

  实际上,已有不少分析认为,美国对欧盟发动关税战恐将得不偿失。因为对美国来说,关税将减少它与所有国家的贸易,而对欧盟而言,唯一受损的只有与美国一家的贸易。

  根据比利时布鲁盖尔研究所的最新研究,如果美欧贸易谈判失败,美国对欧出口可能下降8%至66%;而欧盟对美出口只会下降0.6%至1.1%。

  至于关税对国内生产总值(GDP)的影响,美国也将比欧盟更严重。如果不能与欧盟达成关税协议,美国的GDP可能下降0.7%,而欧盟的GDP则可能仅下降0.3%。

  比利时《回声报》近日发表评论文章指出,面对反复无常的特朗普政府,欧洲不应存有任何幻想,而应“直面美国带来的喧嚣与动荡”,做好自己的事。

  文章强调,欧洲迫切需要推动重建贸易秩序,抓住机遇扭转局势,从而向合作伙伴证明,在美国这头“大象”肆意妄为之际,瓷器店里仍有“成年人”坐镇。

  素材来源丨总台环球资讯广播《环球深观察》

  策划丨王坚

  记者丨李鹏

  编辑丨杨楠

  签审丨王坚

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