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  因避险情绪缓解,10年期日本国债收益率上升4个基点,至1.345%,为4月15日以来的最高水平。

  特斯拉公布2025财年第一季度财报:营收为193.35亿美元,同比下降9%;净利润为4.20亿美元,与去年同期的14.05亿美元相比大幅下降;普通股股东应占净利润为4.09亿美元,与去年同期的13.90亿美元相比大幅下降71%。

  特斯拉第一季度营收和调整后每股摊薄收益均未达到华尔街分析师此前预期。与此同时,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克(ElonMusk)表示,从5月开始,他管理特朗普政府效率部(DOGE)的时间将“大幅”减少。

  财报发布后,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克、CFO瓦伊巴夫·塔尼亚、供应链副总裁卡恩·布迪拉吉、汽车工程副总裁拉斯·莫拉维、自动驾驶软件总监阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米、能源与充电副总裁迈克尔·斯奈德以及投资者关系主管特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德等高管对财报进行了解读,并回答了分析师提问。

  以下为本次电话会议分析师问答环节主要内容:

  特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德:对于管理层而言,您认为在Robotaxi(无人驾驶出租车)的推出、推广方面面临着哪些高风险因素?

  埃隆·马斯克:首先要明确的一点是,特斯拉的Robotaxi项目名为CyberCab。

  按照计划,特斯拉旗下的CyberCab项目将于2025年6月在美国得州奥斯汀正式投入运营,届时实现完全自动驾驶的车型大概率会是特斯拉的ModelY。也就是说,在今年六月,用户可以在奥斯汀付费乘坐ModelY,体验完全自动驾驶功能。之后,我们也将在今年年底前逐步在美国其他城市推出完全自动驾驶功能。

  增长曲线不难预测,大家可以以周或者月为单位,我相信增长速度会非常快。具体的增长曲线可能会像S型曲线,最终绝大多数特斯拉汽车都会实现完全自动驾驶。我个人也有信心,大概明年年中前后特斯拉将实现大规模的自动驾驶。而到了明年下半年,我预计将有数百万台特斯拉汽车实现完全自动驾驶

  至于问题里提到的关键指标,我认为未来很可能会出现区域化、本地化的自动驾驶参数,特别是在一些降雪量很大的地区。举个例子来说,比如你住在美国东北部等地区,这些地方的年降雪量很大。可能你本人在加州会是个很棒的司机,但面对曼哈顿的暴风雪,你敢说自己还能和在加州时开得一样好吗?不会的。当然,我并不是说这种情况下你无法在风雪中开车,而是说你开车发生事故的可能性会更高。因此,在我看来,针对不同的地区,完全自动驾驶功能需要有不同的区域化参数集。我之所以这么说是因为汽车本身和人类驾驶员很相似,它配有数字神经网络和多角度的摄像头,而人类驾驶员在驾驶期间使用的则是生物神经网络和眼睛。无论是数字神经网络还是生物神经网络,它们都会存在相似的优势与劣势。

  阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米:如果谈到我们在不同国家、地区推出不同的驾驶模型,特斯拉采取的是通用型的全自动驾驶解决方案。在采用了这种通用解决方案后,对于不同的国家、区域,我们不需要再去咨询不同专家。我们可以将模型与当地情况相结合,将自动驾驶参数调整至适配当地驾驶情况,让FSD在保证通用性的同时也能符合当地驾驶标准。

  至于问题里提到的,我们在推出CyberCab的过程中要注意哪些关键因素?我想强调一点,那就是完全自动驾驶技术的“有效性”。自动驾驶是需要我们长期关注的问题,时间线拉得越长,我们就越需要注意驾驶过程中可能出现的、甚至及其罕见的案例。目前,我们正在奥斯汀对特斯拉的自动驾驶进行QA(品质保证)测试,但想要获得有效的数据非常困难。举个例子吧,我们可能测试了很多天,这期间完全不需要驾驶员对自动驾驶进行干预,所以我们很难确定这期间FSD的能力是有所提高还是在退步。因此,我们往往需要构建更为复杂的模拟驾驶环境,在后台基于我们的神经网络系统生成更为复杂、罕见的驾驶环境,并在这些环境中对FSD进行测试,以确保我们提供的产品足够安全,准确衡量FSD的有效性与安全性,让其驾驶水平不只停留在“在街区转转即可”,而是要远超平均驾驶水准。

  (持续更新中。。。)

乖宝宠物成为年营收最高的国产宠物食品上市公司——2024年,这家公司营收达到52.45亿元,同比增长21.2%;净利润为6.25亿元,同比增长45.7%。

在主要业务涉及宠物食品的中国公司中,这已经是第一梯队的销售业绩,并逐渐与其他品牌拉开差距。作为对比的是,主业包括宠物粮、零食等的天元宠物、佩蒂股份在2024年的营收分别为27.64亿元、16.59亿元。中宠股份2024年全年业绩尚未披露,但其前三季度营收为31.89亿元,如果按照推测的40亿元左右的全年营收计算,其仍低于乖宝宠物的销售额。

乖宝宠物一个关键的策略是布局自有品牌。

这一策略让这个以宠物食品出口代加工起家的公司得以转型。自2013年以来,乖宝宠物陆续创建了麦富迪、弗列加特等核心自有品牌矩阵,并推出弗列加特高肉猫粮、弗列加特全价冻干猫粮、麦富迪双拼粮、麦富迪益生军团等多个产品系列,以及定位高端的狗粮品牌汪臻醇等等。

2024年,乖宝宠物自有品牌营收达到35.45亿元,同比增长29.14%;占总营收比重达到了67.59%,比2023年的63.44%进一步提升4.15个百分点。

而这家公司的一个突出打法是做高端化。此前乖宝宠物在财报中反复强调高端化策略的推进,比如加快品牌高端化步伐,提升麦富迪品牌的高端产品占比,同时定位高端的肉食猫粮品牌弗列加特也在进行产品升级等等。

押宝高端化与当下中国市场的宠物消费趋势有关。《2023年中国宠物食品消费报告》显示,食品作为刚需产品,是整个宠物消费市场规模的最大细分市场。伴随着精细化高营养养宠趋势,即便在疫情因素影响下,食品市场也仍然保持活力。该报告称,犬食品消费市场规模较往年基本持平,猫食品市场则有大幅提升,较往年增长15.6%。犬猫营养品市场份额的提升,与当下精细化高营养养宠所推动的消费趋势相吻合。

另外现阶段对于大公司来说,高端化有利于瞄准细分市场,做出差异化的产品,并借助品牌提升溢价空间。这也是与低价竞争的白牌或小品牌拉开差距的做法。

乖宝宠物盈利能力提升也在业绩中有所表现。

2024年公司的毛利率为42.27%,较去年同期毛利率增长了5.43个百分点。其中乖宝宠物主推的主粮毛利率水平更高,达到44.70%,而零食的毛利率为39.47%。

但乖宝宠物的另一个做法是,优化公司品牌架构,聚焦细分市场扩大品牌份额。于是在它通过主力品牌高端化扩大市场和打响品牌知名度后,也逐步将触角延伸至更低的价格带,利用大公司的品牌效应、研发体系以及供应链为平价品牌背书。

譬如在今年2月,乖宝宠物宣布“佰萃”宠物粮品牌开始独立运营,定位是平价粮,以“垂直厂牌”的模式运营,直接打通乖宝宠物的自有工厂和终端用户。

在电商平台可以对比发现乖宝宠物不同品牌矩阵的零售价格差异——麦富迪的猫粮每千克在17.9元左右,其中的Barf生骨肉系列将每千克单价拉高至48.5元左右;弗列加特每千克在83.3元左右;汪臻醇的每千克价格在94.5元左右;佰萃则每千克价格为14.5元左右。由此可见弗列加特、汪臻醇定位高端,麦富迪为中高端,佰萃则是平价定位。

乖宝宠物转型建立自有品牌并取得业绩突破的背后,反映出的一个行业趋势是,国产宠物粮正在趋向于替代进口宠物粮。

在2024年天猫双十一猫狗食品榜单TOP10中,国产品牌占据6席,前5名都是本土品牌,其中乖宝宠物旗下的麦富迪连续4年排名首位。

事实上,国产宠物粮的崛起与国产新消费品牌爆发的路径类似。而线上占据优势的其中一个原因,也在于国产品牌与外资品牌相比,更倾向于将营销和渠道资源砸向线上,以获得更快的品牌认知。

以乖宝宠物为例,其2024年的销售费用呈显著增长态势,销售费用达到10.55亿元,较2023年的7.21亿元同比增长46.31%——这一增速也超过了同期营收21.2%的增长率。

同时国产宠物粮品牌也在供应链上下功夫。除了乖宝宠物,其他国产宠物粮品牌也在纷纷自建工厂,比如诚实一口、高爷家、阿飞与巴弟、卫仕、帕特、网易天成等。

而眼下宠物行业也面临动荡的关键时刻。美国对中国的关税霸凌实施后,行业普遍关注的问题是,自美国进口的宠物粮是否会涨价,以及中国宠物企业对外出口业务是否会受到影响。

乖宝宠物也难逃关税摩擦导致出海受阻的风险。

美国是这家公司产品的主要出口国,其对美出口产品主要在中国及泰国工厂生产。截至4月20日,美国政府宣称对中国输美商品征收“对等关税”的税率分品类最高达245%,对泰国输美商品征收“对等关税”的税率为36%(暂缓90天实施)。由此,这家公司中国工厂对美出口订单量存在较大不确定性,泰国工厂对美出口的价格优势被削弱、订单量存在一定的不确定性。

年报显示,2024年乖宝宠物的境外收入为16.93亿元,同比增加15.70%;占总收入的比例为32.29%,与2023年的33.83%基本持平。这也意味着,如果关税摩擦持续,乖宝宠物若将出口市场转移至国内消化,短期内也将承受相当的压力。

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