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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
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  周二,美国短期国债收益率上升,而欧洲同类国债收益率下降。由于即将进行的两年期国债拍卖以及多位美联储官员发表讲话,投资者对美国资产持谨慎态度,这种情绪进一步加剧。

  美国两年期国债收益率一度上涨5个基点,至3.81%,而德国两年期国债收益率则一度下跌6个基点,降至2022年以来的最低水平。美国较长期国债收益率下降,部分逆转了周一因收益率大幅跃升而出现的收益率曲线急剧变陡的走势。

  美国国债传统上是全球首屈一指的避险资产。但最近几周,由于美国总统唐纳德・特朗普试图限制进口,并向美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔施压要求其降息,投资者对美国资产的信心受到动摇,美国国债价格下跌。随着全球市场波动加剧,欧洲政府债券成为另一个避险选择。

  纽约梅隆银行市场部的约翰・韦利斯的研究显示,“跨境的实体资金投资者”正持续撤离美国债券市场,包括美国国债市场。韦利斯在一份报告中称,在前一周经历了几年来跨境资金流动最糟糕的一周后,上周资金流出情况有所缓解。

  美国财政部计划在纽约时间下午1点举行的月度拍卖中出售690亿美元的新两年期国债,这进一步加大了美国短期国债收益率的上行压力。这是本周三次国债拍卖中的第一次。尽管有迹象表明全球投资者对美国资产的兴趣在减弱,但此次两年期国债拍卖的收益率可能会降至去年9月以来的最低水平。

  牛津经济研究院的策略师约翰・卡纳万在一份报告中表示:“在当前环境下,美国国债拍卖面临的风险给短期国债收益率带来了压力。德国国债收益率更低,表现优于美国国债,因为市场参与者正在重新评估避险资产。”

  本周的拍卖周期还包括分别在周三和周四进行的五年期和七年期国债拍卖。

  美国两年期国债收益率目前约为3.78%,低于今年1月初4.42%的峰值水平。投资者推动美国短期国债收益率走低,是因为他们预计特朗普政府的关税议程将在今年晚些时候损害美国经济增长,从而促使美联储降息。

  衍生品市场几乎完全预计美联储将在7月降息25个基点,到年底累计降息90个基点,尽管美联储官员已将注意力转向关税引发的通胀风险。

  美联储副主席菲利普・杰斐逊是周二计划发表讲话的几位美联储官员中的第一位,他强调了美联储致力于维持低水平且稳定的通胀,以促进经济活力。

  美国长期国债收益率的下跌抹去了周一的大部分大幅涨幅,周二亚洲交易时段,收益率曾短暂延续了周一的上涨趋势。

  北极光资产管理公司首席投资官克里斯・扎卡雷利表示:“我们看到欧洲投资者正在撤回他们在美国的部分投资。只要关税政策和其他反全球化政策仍在被认真讨论,我们预计这种趋势将持续下去。”

  尽管周二早些时候德国两年期国债拍卖收到了64亿欧元(74亿美元)的认购订单,为2023年以来的最低水平,但德国国债收益率曲线的短期部分仍然具有吸引力,因为它有望从欧洲央行的进一步降息中受益。居高不下的通胀正困扰着美联储,然而,在欧洲央行上周进行了第七次降息后,它有明确的进一步降息空间。

  彭博社策略师观点……

  “德国短期债券在近期大幅上涨后可能会出现温和回调,但即便如此,在欧洲央行上周做出显著的鸽派转向后,它们仍有望保持近期的大部分涨幅。”

  周二,货币市场加大了对欧洲央行降息幅度的押注,预计到年底降息约70个基点,比上周五收盘时的预期多出3个基点。包括马丁斯・卡扎克在内的政策制定者警告称,美国的关税政策正在加剧不确定性,并增加了欧元区经济衰退的风险。

  瑞银集团首席策略师巴努・巴韦贾表示:“终结美联储的独立性‘会让关税争端看起来像一场野餐’。‘你正在损害美国的过度特权,你正在损害美国的利率,你也正在损害世界其他地区的资本成本。’”

  本月早些时候,通用电气首席执行官拉里・卡尔普亲自与特朗普进行了交谈,解释“零关裞制度”如何使航空航天供应链受益,并为国内航空航天产业带来了贸易顺差。卡尔普表示,他“希望”自己传达的信息能被对方理解。

  在公司公布季度业绩后,卡尔普于周二接受采访时表示:“我们当然支持政府在提升美国竞争力、振兴美国制造业方面的优先事项。实际上,我们一直主张恢复跨大西洋双向的零关裞制度。”

  这次会晤凸显了企业领导者为减轻关裞冲击所付出的努力,关裞正扰乱全球市场,并使财务规划变得复杂。卡尔普领导的通用电气航空集团周二重申了其全年业绩预期,称成本控制和产品提价有助于抵消特朗普关裞政策带来的5亿美元影响。

  这一稳定的业绩预期与其他大型航空企业形成了鲜明对比,后者因消费者信心下降以及对贸易战可能导致美国经济陷入衰退的担忧而备受困扰。通用电气喷气发动机业务的主要客户——美国各航空公司,由于贸易政策的不确定性使得整体经济环境几乎无法预测,已宣布削减航班运力的计划,并撤回了此前的财务展望。

  投资者还担心,新的关裞有可能给航空航天供应链带来额外压力,进而可能导致波音公司和空中客车公司新飞机的交付速度放缓。

  作为全球最大的喷气发动机制造商,通用电气航空集团仍预计全年经调整后的每股收益为5.10美元至5.45美元,同时收入将实现两位数的低增长。这一业绩预期已考虑到已宣布的关裞因素,但未考虑关裞进一步升级或全球经济衰退的情况。

  周二纽约股市早盘,通用电气航空集团的股价上涨了5.4%。截至周一收盘,该公司股价今年以来累计上涨约6.9%,而同期标准普尔500指数下跌了12%。

  收益超预期

  经调整后的第一季度每股收益为1.49美元,而彭博社汇总的分析师平均预期为1.27美元。销售额为90亿美元,与分析师预期相符。

  去年,在卡尔普完成对通用电气能源相关业务部门的分拆后,通用电气航空集团成为一家独立运营的公司,分拆后的能源业务部门现名为通用电气维尔诺瓦(GEVernova)。这项历时多年的业务重组计划帮助公司将债务负担削减至约200亿美元。最近,穆迪投资者服务公司和标准普尔全球评级公司对通用电气的评级上调,就是对这些举措的认可。

  贸易战给通用电气航空集团带来了潜在风险。通用电气航空集团为波音737MAX和787梦想客机等机型供应发动机。

  尽管国际货币基金组织(IMF)将美国今年GDP增速预期大幅下调0.9个百分点至1.8%,黄金市场在北美开盘时段仍延续获利回吐态势,未显现新的避险买盘。

  根据IMF周二发布的最新《世界经济展望》,其同步下调欧元区增长预期0.2个百分点至0.8%,全球GDP增速预期则从3.3%降至2.8%。

  IMF警告称:“不断升级的贸易战与贸易政策不确定性,正在压缩短期和长期增长空间,而政策缓冲空间的缩减削弱了经济抗风险能力。”

  IMF报告特别强调:各国需“协同构建稳定可预测的贸易环境”,同时解决国内政策失衡以重建经济韧性。

  值得注意的是,IMF同步上调美国通胀预期1个百分点至3%。但黄金市场对此反应平淡——隔夜金价刚刷新每盎司3500美元的历史高点,随后在欧洲和北美交易时段遭遇持续获利了结。现货黄金现报3428.20美元/盎司,日内微涨0.14%。

  分析师指出,经济衰退初期或迫使投资者抛售黄金头寸弥补股市亏损,但历史数据显示黄金在经济下行周期中仍能跑赢股指。当前金价走势显示,市场更关注技术面阻力位突破而非宏观风险。

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