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2025年4月20日,大族数控交出了一份营收33.43亿元、净利润3.01亿元的“翻倍”成绩单。表面看,这家PCB专用设备巨头似乎已走出前两年业绩滑坡的阴霾,但细剖财报数据与行业动向,高速增长的背后既藏着AI产业链基础设施需求爆发的推动,也暴露了毛利率下滑、技术替代隐忧等深层矛盾。

2024年,大族数控的营收与净利润同比增幅均超100%,钻孔类设备以156.79%的增速成为核心引擎,贡献了62.84%的营收。

这一爆发式增长被归因于AI产业链的“催熟效应”,全球AI服务器和高速交换机需求激增,拉动高多层PCB板需求,而大族数控的机械钻孔机、激光成像设备恰好卡位产业链咽喉。

在多层板市场层面,普通多层板市场行业准入门槛较低,技术同质化严重,加上东南亚地区的持续扩产,市场竞争激烈,下游客户亟需可降本增效的加工方案来提升自身竞争力。2024年,大族数控大幅提升十二轴自动化机械钻孔机产品性能,实现钻孔综合效率最大提升一倍以上;自动上下料成型机在客户端实现量产,设备综合稼动率显著提升;层压系统获汽车电子、AI服务器电源等领域知名客户订单。

在高多层板市场层面,随着数据量大幅攀升,AI服务器、高速交换机等产品纷纷采用更高层数的多层板,下一代112/224Gbps高速数据传输对信号完整性的保障提出更高要求,高多层板背钻的精度要求大幅提升,大族数控开发的新型CCD六轴独立机械钻孔机搭载3D背钻及钻测一体技术,可实现超短残桩和超高同心度,已获得行业多家高多层板龙头企业的认可及正式订单。

在HDI市场层面,该市场技术难度不断提升,技术上从一阶、二阶HDI板到任意层HDI板再提升至类载板,结构上从超薄介质、小单元到高多层、大尺寸;应用端从智能手机、光模块、平板电脑等快速扩张到汽车电子、通讯设备、AI服务器、工控医疗等领域,特别是AI服务器相关的高多层HDI板,2024年呈现爆发式增长。

面对不同类型HDI板的技术需求和发展趋势,大族数控针对智能手机、800G/1.6T高速光模块产品10层以上任意层结构、微小孔及微细线路的特点,提供四光束CO2激光钻孔机及新型激光钻孔机、高解析度激光直接成像机、CCD六轴独立控制机械成型机、高精专用测试机等;针对汽车电子、激光雷达等终端使用HDI板的厚铜、高频材料等特性,提供CCD六轴独立机械钻孔机、光路优化的CO2激光钻孔、UV+CO2复合激光钻孔机、高分辨率数字成像系统、高精度四线测试机等;针对市场增长最为显著的AI服务器相关高多层HDI板,大族数控是行业内少数可提供对应成套解决方案的企业,并针对该类产品厚度大、重量大的特点优化产品传输及夹持系统,提供机械钻孔机、3D背钻及钻测一体CCD背钻机、CO2激光钻孔机、UV激光钻孔机等。

在先进封装市场层面,尽管PC、智能手机等终端市场恢复成长,但涨幅有限,导致CPU、存储类封装基板产能饱和,国内外相关企业的投资力度大幅下降,但AI产业链中AI服务器、交换机及加速卡等用到的CPU、GPU、NPU、ASIC及FPGA等需求增长,带来大尺寸FC-BGA、玻璃基FC-BGA及面板级封装RDL的需求提升。大族数控一方面从传统加工设备方案入手,不断提升产品性能,实现国产替代,其机械钻孔机在全球领先的封装基板厂商获得认证;另一方面,从先进封装技术需求入手,在行业内率先研发并推广新型激光技术,提供微小孔钻孔、高精度挖槽及成型、玻璃通孔加工(TGV)等系列产品。

在挠性及刚挠结合板市场层面,随着汽车电动智能化的加速,及折叠屏智能手机、潜望式摄像模组、国产OLED屏幕等应用的兴起,挠性及刚挠结合板市场专用加工设备的需求增加。2024年,大族数控与全球最大FPC企业开展合作,相关产品市场占有率大幅攀升。

在海外市场层面,以泰国为热点的东南亚地区PCB新建项目快速推进,大族数控海外市场业务取得较大程度增长。随着全球主要电子终端品牌实施多元化的供应链策略,并将与信息安全相关的AI服务器、卫星通讯、光模块、汽车智能驾驶等PCB作为布局重点,带动了更多高多层板、高阶HDI板产能的建设,整体需求量上涨,有利于公司相关产品海外市场销售规模及利润空间的提升。

尽管大族数控年报中所呈现的整体情况呈上升趋势,但一个不容忽视的事实是,其综合毛利率同比下降4.48个百分点至28.11%,钻孔类设备毛利率更跌至24.73%。在行业竞品价格战加剧的背景下,这种“以量换利”的增长模式能否持续,仍待观察。

除公布业绩之外,4月20日晚间,大族数控宣布拟发行H股股票并在香港联交所主板上市,21日收盘其A股股价定格在37.16元,较2022年发行价几乎腰斩。这场“出海融资”被称之为全球化战略的重要一步,但财报数据显示,其海外营收占比仅从5.35%提升至10.83%,尚不足以支撑“国际巨头”叙事。

据Prismark预测,2025年全球PCB行业增速将回落,但大族数控仍在押注AI服务器、汽车电子带来的结构性机会。其推出的先进封装基板加工设备已获得头部客户订单,试图在芯片封装领域复制PCB设备的成功路径。不过,国内同行也正加速蚕食中低端市场。

总体而言,大族数控的翻倍增长,既是踩中AI东风的幸运,也是中国PCB产业链升级的缩影。但亮眼财报难以掩盖两个残酷现实,核心技术的“国产替代”仍停留在中游环节,而设备厂商的利润正被上下游双重挤压。当行业从爆发期转入淘汰赛,大族数控需要证明的不仅是增速,更是穿越周期的生存能力。

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