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文|赵然吴马涵旭沃昕宇李梓豪

证券:一季度低基数下净利高弹性增长,带来估值上修预期。保险:长期看,红利资产配置逻辑预计仍会延续,红利资产长期估值向上有望增厚险企长期投资业绩。香港市场及港交所观点:4月以来港股市场有所调整,关注后续行情修复。金融科技行业:监管逻辑趋稳、促消费导向明确、AI技术提效的背景下,消费金融行业处于政策红利+与技术红利的双重驱动期。

证券:一季度低基数下净利高弹性增长,带来估值上修预期。截止4月12日,已有10家上市券商披露2025年一季度业绩预告,其中两家券商营收实现正增,8家券商净利润同比实现超30%增长。上市券商业绩、盈利的增长一方面受去年同期自营低基数效应影响,同时一季度股票成交量同比高增带动代买收入增长。4月以来,券商板块经历短暂回调后,性价比再度凸显,我们看好板块后续估值修复动能,核心逻辑在于:业绩韧性筑牢安全边际,政策与宏观环境改善形成双重催化,低估值水平打开向上空间。

保险:4月8日,金融监督管理总局印发《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监管比例有关事项的通知》。《通知》上调综合偿付能力充足率在150%-200%、250%-300%及350%以上保险公司的权益类资产投资比例上限5个百分点,拓宽其权益投资空间。在长端利率下行、优质非标供给不足的背景下,险资增配权益资产以增厚长期收益具有合理性,高股息策略或成重要配置方向。长期来看,险企需推动负债端产品结构多元化转型,如发展分红险和健康险,降低刚性负债成本,红利资产配置逻辑预计将持续,有望增厚险企长期投资业绩。

香港市场及港交所观点:4月以来港股市场有所调整,关注后续行情修复。4月以来港股市场有所调整,恒生指数-9.54%,恒生科技指数-9.16%,香港市场整体跑输MSCIWorldIndex的-4.34%。资产端,截至4月11日港股整体市值为36.62万亿港元,较3月底-6.85%;资金端,4月以来港股成交活跃度有所上升;ADT为3618.50亿港元,环比+18.22%。

券商一季度业绩前瞻:蓄势待发,估值修复可期。4月以来,券商板块经历短暂回调后,性价比再度凸显,我们看好板块后续估值修复动能,核心逻辑在于:业绩韧性筑牢安全边际,政策与宏观环境改善形成双重催化,低估值水平打开向上空间。

业绩端:低基数下净利高弹性增长,带来估值上修预期。截止4月12日,已有10家上市券商披露2025年一季度业绩预告,两家券商营收实现正增,8家券商净利润同比实现超30%增长。上市券商业绩、盈利的增长一方面受去年同期自营低基数效应影响,同时一季度股票成交量同比高增带动代买收入增长。根据Wind的统计,2025年一季度A股日均成交额实现15245.69亿元,同比高增70.27%,其中1/2/3月日均成交额分别为12054.80/18401.62/15275.67亿元,同比+63.19%/+92.32%/+50.41%。华泰证券、中国银河、中信建投等财富管理拥有展业优势的券商均实现超过50%的净利增长。

政策面:央行降准降息预期有望通过改善流动性与市场情绪,叠加消费提振政策强化经济复苏预期,共同带动市场交投活跃度及盈利前景改善。3月份至今,央行已经多次公开明确提及“择机降准降息”,后续若降息降准政策落地,市场流动性改善与融资成本下行有望提振资本市场活跃度,叠加消费刺激政策推动经济预期回暖,券商板块将受益于市场风险偏好提升与交投情绪增强,整体业务链及盈利能力或迎来边际修复。

宏观面:3月CPI同比降幅收窄释放积极信号,提振消费效果明显。3月份,居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比下降0.1%,降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。从边际变化看,提振消费需求等政策效应进一步显现,核心CPI明显回升,同比上涨0.5%。证券板块与宏观经济以及资本市场高度联动,在经济预期改善的驱动下,有望成为市场风险偏好回暖的核心受益方向。

估值水位:上行空间充足,下行空间有限。截至2025/4/11,万得一致预测的证券(申万)板块PB估值约为1.33倍,在过去五年里处于中等分位。安全边际角度,按照该预测盈利水准,证券板块在2022年9月至2024年8月的估值低迷期间,PB值在1.0~1.2倍范围震荡,当前行业经营和交易环境明显好于当时,因此下行空间相对有限。

外部环境:关税政策或带来通胀风险,美联储对降息表态谨慎。美联储多位官员频繁发表讲话,强调控制通胀是当前的首要任务,并对关税可能引发的持久性价格压力表示警惕,暗示短期内不会急于降息。4月10日,美国波士顿联储主席柯林斯表示,尽管美联储可能在今年稍晚时候降低利率,但关税驱动的通胀可能会推迟进一步降息的时机。同日,美国达拉斯联储主席洛根也表达了类似观点,认为在等待关税对经济影响更加清晰化之前,暂时维持利率稳定是最佳选择。与此同时,美国劳工统计局于4月10日发布的数据显示,美国3月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.4%,低于市场普遍预期的2.5%;核心CPI同比上涨2.8%,为2021年3月以来的最小涨幅。CPI数据的温和增长表明通胀压力有所缓解,但美联储可能仍需更多时间来评估关税等外部因素对经济的长期影响,这可能会进一步影响其未来的货币政策走向。

市场价格波动的不确定性:资本市场价格的影响因素较多,包括宏观经济的波动、全球经济形势的变化以及投资者情绪的波动,都可能引发股价变动,或对券商、保险公司等机构的估值造成影响,而非银金融行业的业绩受市场价格和交易量的影响较大。

企业盈利预测不确定性:证券、保险行业的盈利受到多种因素的影响,报告针对行业估值、业绩的预测存在一定的不确定性,此外行业内部竞争的加剧也可能导致预测结果出现偏差。

技术更新迭代:新兴技术的快速发展要求金融机构不断跟进并适应技术变革的步伐,然而技术更新迭代速度加快也带来了高昂的研发投入和人才培训成本,可能增加券商及保险公司经营成本,同时技术创新的爆发具有一定的不确定性。

赵然:中信建投非银与前瞻研究首席分析师,中国科学技术大学应用统计硕士,base上海。上海交通大学金融科技行研团队成员。曾任中信建投金融工程分析师。目前专注于非银行业及金融科技领域(供应链金融、消费金融、保险科技、区块链、智能投顾/投研、金融IT系统、支付科技等)的研究,深度参与诸多监管机构、金融机构数字化转型及金融科技课题研究。6年证券研究的工作经验。2018年wind金融分析师(金融工程)第二名2019年.2020年Wind金融分析师(非银金融)第四名和第一名,2020年新浪金麒麟非银金融新锐分析师第一名。

吴马涵旭:复旦大学硕士,资深分析师,主要覆盖证券业/监管政策/金融科技(支付/信贷/理财)/AIGC+金融等。

沃昕宇:中信建投非银金融与前瞻团队分析师,北京大学硕士,主要覆盖保险/保险科技、养老金融领域,对人身险产品结构转型、资产负债匹配、养老金金融等细分领域有较为深入的研究。

李梓豪:中信建投非银金融&金融科技研究员

证券研究报告名称:《十家券商一季度业绩预增,关注板块当前配置性价比》

对外发布时间:2025年4月15日

报告发布机构:中信建投证券股份有限公司 

本报告分析师: 

赵然SAC编号:S1440518100009

SFC编号:BQQ828

吴马涵旭SAC编号:S1440522070001

沃昕宇SAC编号:S1440524070019

李梓豪SAC编号:S1440524070018

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