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皇叔每晚梦我 - 感受心灵深处的火花与碰撞
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  黄金价格再创历史新高。

  4月16日,现货黄金(伦敦金现,下同)价格连续冲破3300美元/盎司和3310美元/盎司两大整数关口,续创历史新高,并在盘中触及3317.89美元/盎司的高位。

  不过,国际金价在连续冲高后出现震荡回落走势,截至记者发稿,Wind数据显示,现货黄金价格报3293.20美元/盎司,已回落至3300美元下方。

  期货黄金价格方面,Wind数据显示,周三(4月16日)COMEX黄金期货同样走出上行行情,截至记者发稿报3315.6美元/盎司,而日内最高价一度至3334.2美元/盎司。

  国内市场方面,截至周三(4月16日)收盘,沪金主力2506合约报781.60元/克,涨2.68%,最高至782.38元/克。

  同时,上海黄金交易所“上海金”截至4月3日收盘,价格同样普涨。其中,上海金Au99.99合约收盘价为762.90元/克,最高价765.30元/克;Au100g合约收盘价为765.00元/克;Au99.95合约收盘价为760.50元/克,最高价763.50元/克。

  值得一提的是,随着国内外金价持续上涨,实物黄金价格同样连创新高。4月16日,多家品牌金店的足金饰品报价突破每克1000元,国内金饰价格迈入千元时代。

  上海黄金饰品行业协会数据显示,足金价格方面,老凤祥报1005元/克、老庙报1003元/克、中国黄金报999元/克、周大福报1006元/克。此外,周六福足金999报1006元/克,周六福足金999.9报1026元/克。

  对于国内外金价的“涨声一片”,多位分析人士指出,主要是避险和抗通胀属性的强化。

  避险方面,中信期货指出,贸易紧张局势的升级担忧持续提振了黄金避险需求。同时,美联储可能于2025年采取更激进的降息政策预期,市场对美联储宽松政策的押注加深,叠加美元走弱趋势,共同为金价提供支撑。

  “目前,美国经济的下行风险不容忽视。美国密歇根消费者信心指数已经连续4个月下滑,未来贸易冲突、驱赶移民等对美国经济的负面冲击也将逐步体现,美国经济数据的走弱压力或进一步加剧。持续的美国经济走弱担忧和仍旧复杂的全球地缘局势,都将使得避险需求持续,从而继续支撑金价。”国贸期货称。

  而在抗通胀方面,国贸期货分析称,虽然美国3月CP1、PPI全线回落,但由于特朗普贸易政策对消费者价格的传导尚需时间,因此相关影响尚未体现在当下通胀数据中。结合美联储官员的讲话和海外市场机构的分析,贸易政策对价格的影响大概率会在今年夏季开始显著体现,届时黄金的抗通胀属性有望继续助推其价格上行。

  “截至4月11日,全球最大的黄金ETF-SPDR的持仓自特朗普上任以来已经流入超81吨,上涨约9.3%,持仓水平达到953.15吨,表明了西方国家投资者对于未来避险和对抗通胀的需求持续走强。”国贸期货进一步指出。

  不过,值得投资者注意的是,虽然支撑金价中长期继续上涨的逻辑仍然存在且不排除强化的可能性,但当前时点,不少机构均提示了金价阶段性高位调整的风险。

  例如,中信期货便指出,接下来,黄金二季度维持看多方向不变,不过黄金短线或有波动风险。其中,伦敦金现可关注3200美元支撑,周度区间为3174美元至3245美元。

  “整体来看,黄金对冲美元信用风险的货币属性,以及避险属性和抗通胀属性都可能进一步强化,并支撑金价中长期继续上涨,建议投资者仍以多配黄金为主。”国贸期货进一步指出,“但由于当下金价处于历史绝对高位,美联储官员和美财长均已经暗示如有必要将救助美债市场,短期美债市场的抛售力度有望放缓,因此仍需警惕金价的阶段性高位调整风险。”

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