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  华尔街见闻

  华尔街分析师普遍认为,GLP-1减肥药领域正在从注射剂型向便捷的口服形式转变,而礼来已经取得了早期领先优势。这场激烈的多年竞争已经有了明显的赢家,至少目前看来,礼来已被市场加冕为GLP-1药物领域的新王者。

  礼来公司的口服减肥药Orforglipron在三期临床试验中表现出色,可以媲美甚至超越注射型GLP-1药物。

  市场对礼来的突破性进展反应强烈。4月17日,礼来股价收涨超14%,盘中暴涨16%,创下自2023年8月以来的最大单日涨幅。

  与此同时,长期占据GLP-1市场主导地位的诺和诺德股价则大幅收跌近8%。

  根据礼来公布发布的新闻稿,其口服GLP-1药物orforglipron在3期临床试验中“展示了统计学上显著的疗效结果,且安全性与注射型GLP-1药物一致”。

  数据显示,服用Orforglipron的参与者在40周后平均减轻了16磅,约占体重的7.9%,这一表现超过了礼来之前预计的4%至7%减重范围。

  相比之下,诺和诺德的明星产品Ozempic在最高剂量下糖尿病患者仅减轻约6%的体重。

  “这些数据代表了一款一上市就能成为重磅产品的最佳情况,”Jefferies分析师AkashTewari表示。

  瑞穗证券医疗保健专家JaredHolz表示,礼来将在相当长一段时间内保持该类别中的卓越地位,因为基于这些数据,其领先于制药和生物技术领域竞争对手的优势正在扩大。

  华尔街分析师普遍认为,GLP-1减肥药领域正在从注射剂型向便捷的口服形式转变,而礼来已经取得了早期领先优势。这场激烈的多年竞争已经有了明显的赢家,至少目前看来,礼来已被市场加冕为GLP-1药物领域的新王者。

  礼来公司董事长兼CEODavidRicks在一份声明中写道:

  除了便利性外,礼来还在积极准备大规模生产Orforglipron。该公司最近披露了价值近5.5亿美元的库存,“主要与Orforglipron相关”。这表明礼来正在建立产品库存,避免诺和诺德和自身注射型GLP-1药物曾面临的供应短缺问题。

  LeerinkPartners分析师DavidRisinger表示:礼来将成为唯一一家拥有易于生产的口服GLP-1药物的公司,领先新竞争对手近三年。这一优势将使礼来能够在更长时间内保持更高定价能力。

  登顶减肥药之王?

  据华尔街见闻此前提及,在礼来公布这一振奋人心的消息的同一周,其竞争对手辉瑞宣布停止开发其口服减肥药Danuglipron,原因是临床试验中一名患者出现潜在与药物相关的肝损伤。报道称,辉瑞的退出进一步巩固了礼来在这一领域的领先地位。

  与此同时,诺和诺德自去年6月以来持续遭遇一连串利空,包括减重药Wegovy和Ozempic需求不及预期、口服减重药monlunabant的中期试验结果令人失望,以及另一款在研注射药物CagriSema的数据表现不佳,导致其本月痛失欧股市值老大的位置。

  GLP-1减肥药市场预计将从目前的280亿美元迅速增长至2030年的约950亿美元。根据高盛分析师的预测,Orforglipron的风险调整后峰值销售额(包括肥胖和糖尿病)将在2035年达到235亿美元,远高于市场共识的168亿美元。

  为避免类似注射型GLP-1药物的供应短缺问题,礼来已经开始积极备货Orforglipron,最近披露的价值近5.5亿美元的库存“主要与Orforglipron相关”。有报道称,公司计划在5年内实现Orforglipron在美国的全部供应本地化生产。

  根据临床试验数据库,礼来公司的主要肥胖症试验最早将于7月完成。该公司计划今年晚些时候寻求减重适应症的监管批准,明年初则将申请糖尿病适应症。如果一切顺利,分析师预计该药物最早可能在2026年上半年获得FDA批准上市。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

  4月18日金融一线消息,华夏银行今日召开2024年度业绩说明会。谈及未来盈利增长的主要驱动因素,行长瞿纲表示,将着重从以下几方面激发盈利增长动能。

  一是夯实客户基础。强化集团化批量获客,依托生态化获客、数字化活客、专业化升客的经营价值链,有效扩大基础客户、有效户数量;健全客户分层分类经营体系,优化分层分类服务策略,实现“获客-活客-升客”的客户经营闭环。

  二是深化成本管控。加快存款高质量增长、加大低成本市场化资金组织,降低负债成本;进一步加强费用精细化管理,提高资源使用效率;强化资产质量管控,严控新增逾欠,加大现金清收力度,降低信用成本。

  三是拓宽中收增长来源。不断加快渠道、产品建设,丰富业务品种,加强条线协同,提高服务能力,拓展中间业务收入增长点,实现中间业务收入可持续发展。

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