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财联社4月21日讯(编辑潇湘)周一(4月21日)亚洲时段的全球市场上,连创历史新高的黄金和一路阴跌不止的美元——突然成为了两道最为吸引人眼球的行情“风景线”……

行情数据显示,ICE美元指数(DXY)在日内早间一路狂泻了约100点,目前已经刷新了三年来的最低位98.22。而黄金在今日亚市的大涨,在很大程度上都可以归因于美元所遭遇到的罕见抛售行情。截至发稿,现货黄金价格已经刷新了历史高位3385美元/盎司。

不少业内人士表示,美元之所以在周一一路狂泻,因美国总统特朗普上周考虑撤换美联储主席,使美联储的独立性受到质疑,投资者对美国经济的信心再次受到打击。此外,周一澳大利亚、中国香港和欧洲等多地市场因复活节休市,外汇市场相对冷清的假日流动性也放大了美元的跌势。

在非美货币中,美元兑瑞郎日内进一步跌至了十年来的最低点0.8069,欧元兑美元则一路突破了1.15大关,新西兰元兑美元汇率则五个多月来首次回升至0.6000的水平。

美元兑日元也跌至了七个月低点140.61。美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示,截至4月15日的当周,日元净多头仓位创下历史新高。

白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特上周五表示,总统及其团队正在继续研究是否可以解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。而就在哈塞特发表上述言论的前一天,特朗普刚刚威胁将炒掉鲍威尔,并呼吁美联储降息。

华侨银行策略师ChristopherWong表示:“坦率地说,解雇鲍威尔的讨论令人难以置信。而如果美联储的信誉受到质疑,可能会严重削弱人们对美元的信心。”

目前,不少业内人士已开始担心,鲍威尔一旦被解职,可能会大举削弱投资者信心,因为美联储的独立性长期以来一直被视为投资美国资产的关键保障。而若真出现鲍威尔提前下台的一幕,特朗普也很可能会挑选一位货币政策立场“极其鸽派”的鲍威尔接班人,以迎合白宫对降息的呼吁。

事实上,从外汇市场的角度看,特朗普或许也会在一定程度上对美元走弱持支持态度,因为正如他此前表态以及潜在《海湖庄园协议》中的目标一样,目前白宫团队可能会欢迎美元贬值,因为这将增强美国产品的竞争力。

特朗普还没炒掉鲍威尔就已经把美元吓崩了?

瑞穗亚洲(日本外)宏观研究主管VishnuVarathan表示,“鲍威尔并不直接向特朗普报告,因此特朗普实际上可能无法按正式流程解雇他——鲍威尔只能在特定程序下被免职,而人们会认为这种程序有更高的障碍...不过,总统能推动可能破坏美联储独立性的进程吗?当然可能!”

“我认为,他们甚至不需要立即解雇鲍威尔。你只需要让人们觉得,你可以从根本上改变对美联储独立性的看法。而这对任何看跌美元的人来说都将是一场盛宴......从围绕关税自残的不确定性加剧,到甚至在解雇鲍威尔消息之前的信心丧失,”Varathan指出。

布朗兄弟哈里曼公司市场策略全球主管WinThin在一份报告中则写道,“我们认为美元的疲软态势将持续下去。对美联储独立性的攻击正在加剧。”

根据CFTC的数据显示,对冲基金目前对美元的看跌情绪已经达到去年10月以来的最高水平。

“央行独立性非常宝贵——不能视作理所当然,一旦失去,也很难挽回,”FHNFinancial驻芝加哥宏观策略师WillCompernolle、表示,“特朗普对鲍威尔的威胁,显然无助于增强外国投资者对美国资产的信心。”

SchwabCenterforFinancialResearch首席固定收益策略师KathyJones则表示,特朗普可能会试图兑现他解雇鲍威尔的威胁,投资者不应排除这种可能性——此举可能会加剧美国国债和美元的抛售,这种情况通常只出现在新兴市场经济体中或对一国治理的信心动摇之时。

事实上,当美国国债和美元指数本月早些时候同步下跌时,人们就曾担忧过外国投资者可能正在大举抛售美国资产。

“这种事以往在一个主要发达国家根本不可能发生,”Jones在谈到特朗普寻求罢免鲍威尔的言论时说。“特朗普越是施压,情况就越糟。”她表示,即使投资者认可任何潜在的鲍威尔替代人选,到时候损害也已经造成了。“债券收益率会上升,美元会下跌,因为那样美国就失去了任何信誉。”

很有意思的是,在今日的美元抛售潮中,跨资产领域还有一个显著的异常现象:比特币。

此前,美元的任何暴跌(以及随之而来的日元飙升)都会重创套利交易,在一定程度上打击科技股和加密货币,但今日人们终于看到了格局的转变。在最初持平之后,一波买盘将比特币推高了近2000美元,突破了87000美元,创下了自4月2日特朗普“解放日”以来的最大单日涨幅……

有业内人士表示,两者之间相关性的破裂表明,随着金价逼近荒谬的高位水平,一些业内人士还把比特币视为了下一个逃离美元崩盘的“安全港湾”——毕竟,一旦所有央行发动“印钞”狂潮,法定货币的进一步贬值可能只是时间问题。

  来源:谷粉学术

  据中国农业大学官方报道,动物分子遗传育种领域杰出科学家、前中国工程院院士李宁教授,已于去年担任北京首农股份有限公司首席科学家。

  公开资料显示,李宁教授1982年本科毕业于江西农业大学牧医系,1991年博士毕业于中国农业大学(与爱尔兰都柏林大学联合培养)。曾任中国农业大学生物学院教授、博士生导师、中国农业大学农业生物技术国家重点实验室主任。是国家杰青、长江学者、自科基金创新研究群体项目主持人;荣获国家科技进步奖二等奖3次,国家技术发明奖2次,科技部“973”项目首席科学家和科技部“863”计划重大专项总体专家组组长、农业生物技术国家重点实验室主任、欧盟第5框架计划PigBioDiv2计划的负责人。

  李宁教授长期致力于动物基因组学、分子育种和体细胞克隆等前沿研究,发现和克隆了多个影响动物重要生产性状的基因,推动了分子育种技术的发展。已发表800余篇SCI论文,其中多篇论文发表在GenomeResearch、Nature等顶级期刊上。已获得50余项PCT和国家发明专利。

  34岁时,李宁成为中国农业大学教授,在动物遗传育种和动物生物技术领域取得一系列国际原创科研成果,创造了多项国际第一。曾创造了 “世界最大克隆牛”、“第一头克隆猪” 等多项第一。

  2007年,45岁的李宁成为当年中国最年轻工程院院士。

  2014年,李宁被控贪污3750万元科研经费,成为1949年以来第一个被逮捕的院士,他的案子也因此被称为“中国院士第一案”。

  对于此案,吉林省松原市检察院曾前后共计15次不断“延期”,羁押5年半后才重审。但两次审判李宁坚持无罪。因案子因审而不判,沈国舫等15名院士曾为其联名上书中央,光明日报刊还曾发特别评论“审而不判不正常”。

  2020年1月3日,吉林省松原市中级人民法院公开宣判中国工程院院士、中国农业大学教授李宁及同案被告人张磊贪污一案,对被告人李宁以贪污罪判处有期徒刑十二年,并处罚金人民币三百万元。

  2021年1月11日,中国工程院官网发布关于撤销李宁(农业学部)院士称号的决定。

  北京首农股份有限公司

  据公开资料,北京首农股份有限公司(以下简称“首农股份”)成立于1994年,2014年改制成为国有控股股份所有制企业。依托北京首农食品集团、中信农业科技股份有限公司等股东,已成为国内动物种业前列企业。公司注册资本8.4亿元,员工超4400人,资产总额近60亿元。 首农股份是北京首农食品集团种业科技战略的承载与实施主体。

  首农股份聚焦发展动物种业科技,已经形成了以优质畜禽品种为核心的肉鸭、种猪、肉鸡、蛋鸡等多品类动物种业矩阵,是中国的多品类动物育种企业集团。十三五期间,首农股份所属企业获国家科技进步奖二等奖一项,北京市科学进步奖三等奖一项,全国农牧渔业丰收奖二等奖一项。2018-2022年,获得专利63项。 科技利农,食安为民。未来,首农股份将紧紧抓住我国种业振兴的历史机遇,建立新型育繁推一体化模式;全力打造具有全球影响力的综合性高科技育种企业。为全面提升我国动物育种水平,提高我国主要畜禽核心种源自给率贡献力量。

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  近期,海通证券公布了最新的基金公司固定类基金绝对收益分类评分排名榜单,数据显示,截至今年一季末,近1年、2年、3年排名中,景顺长城均位居固收类大型基金公司第1。此外,景顺长城近10年期固收投资能力更是获得5星评级,展现出持续的领先优势。(数据均来源:海通证券,按照基金公司规模自大到小进行排序,其中累计平均主动固收规模占比达到全市场主动固收规模50%的基金公司划分为大型公司,近1、2、3年均排名1/18。投资能力截至日期为2025年1月27日)

  具体从产品来看,景顺长城旗下一批纯债、一级债、二级债和偏债混在内的基金,业绩表现突出。银河证券最新数据显示,截至4月11日,近1年、近3年维度,景顺长城基金旗下分别有20只、14只固收类基金,跻身同类业绩排名前1/4。

  稳健策略基金方面,陈静管理的中长期纯债景顺长城景泰丰利A,积极采取杠杆和久期策略,近一年取得5.91%的回报(同期基准3.04%)。李训练、何江波共同管理的一级债基景顺长城稳定收益A,去年四季度前瞻性布局正股相对低估、估值合理的转债,把握住了可转债估值修复的机会,近1年回报15.49%(同期基准5.78%),在249只同类型基金中排名第3。(数据来源:业绩及基准数据来自Wind、排名数据来自银河证券,景顺长城稳定收益的同类为普通债券型基金(可投转债)(A类),截至2025/4/11。产品投资来自定期公告信息。)

  强调股债搭配的二级债基中,李怡文、江山、徐栋共管的景顺长城景颐丰利A,采取“成长增强”思路,权益部分聚焦AI主线,并阶段性配置新能源行业,踏准了去年三季度以来的成长行情,近1年取得17.52%的净值增长率(同期基准6.15%),在462只同类型基金中排名第2。李怡文、邹立虎等人共同管理的景顺长城景颐招利6个月持有A,则积极发挥邹立虎在周期、价值板块的投研能力,权益仓位以黄金、铜铝等有色金属为主,近3年取得15.30%的净值增长率(同期基准13.73%)。(数据来源:业绩及基准数据来自Wind,排名数据来自银河证券,截至2025/4/11;同类为普通债券型基金(二级)(A类)。产品投资来自定期公告信息。)

  偏债混合的弹性更为显著,景顺长城宁景6个月持有A、安鼎一年持有A、安瑞混合A和安鑫回报A近1年的净值增长率均超过了7%,显著跑赢同期偏债混合型基金指数4.37%的涨幅。从基金的权益资产投资来看,李怡文管理的安瑞更偏价值风格;董晗与李训练共同管理的宁景、安鼎聚焦电子、军工等成长风格;韩文强、赵天彤共同管理的安鑫则更为均衡。(数据来源:业绩、基准及指数数据来自Wind,截至2025/4/11,以上基金近一年业绩和基准为9.21%(7.21%)、7.85%(7.37%)、7.75%(7.37%)、13.95%(6.14%)。产品投资来自定期公告信息。)

  展望未来,经济复苏仍需宽松的货币政策保驾护航,加上美国关税导致全球权益市场波动加剧以及债市前期调整释放部分风险等因素,固收类基金或许仍是值得长期配置的底仓型品种。对于景顺长城固收投资团队而言,将继续打磨债券以及各类权益资产的投资能力,助力投资者把握机遇。

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