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  汇通财经APP讯——由于贸易相关的不确定性让投资者保持警觉,并继续支撑传统的避险资产,日元在前一天小幅下跌后重获积极的牵引力。此外,有数据显示,日本2月份核心机械订单大幅反弹,超出市场预期。这一点,再加上日本可能与美国达成贸易协议的希望,以及越来越多的人认为日本央行将在2025年继续加息,都是支撑日元的其他因素。周三(4月16日)亚市,美元兑日元小幅走弱,目前下跌0.4%,交投于142.67附近,上周汇价曾跌至142.06的七个月低点。

  与此同时,对日本央行的鹰派预期相比于对美联储更激进宽松政策的押注上升,这标志着巨大的分歧。这将导致日本和美国之间的利差进一步缩小,这反过来支持了收益率较低的日元进一步升值的前景。另一方面,由于担心特朗普政府的贸易政策将阻碍美国经济增长,美元在多年低点附近徘徊。这使得美元兑日元接近上周触及的六个月低点。

  从技术面来看,美元兑日元未能吸引到任何有意义的买家,这表明持续数月的下行趋势还远未结束。此外,日线图上的振荡指标深守在负值区域,这进一步表明,现货价格阻力最小的路径仍然是下行。与此同时,任何进一步的下跌都可能在142.25-142.20区域附近,或者是在142.00关口之前的周低点,或者是上周五触及的几个月低点,找到一些支撑。如果令人信服地跌破后者,将再次确认负面倾向,并为该货币对近期进一步贬值铺平道路。另一方面,试图回升至143.00关口上方的尝试现在可能在隔夜波动高点附近(143.60附近)遭遇强劲阻力。任何进一步的上涨都可能被视为卖出机会,并在144.00整数附近受到限制。后者应该会成为关键的转折点,如果该位置为强势突破,可能会引发空头回补涨势,并推高美元兑日元至144.45-144.50水平障碍,看向145.00心理关口。这种势头可能会进一步延伸至145.50区域和146.00整数位。

  美元兑日元月线图来源:易汇通北京时间4月16日11:28美元兑日元报142.66/67。

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