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  界面新闻记者|薛冰冰

  4月16日晚间,“航空物流混改第一股”东航物流(601156.SH)发布2024年度报告。与此前已公布年报的国货航(001391.SZ)类似,经过2023年供需回归常态化、营收净利双双下滑后,2024年东航物流也显著止跌回升。

  财报披露,过去的2024年东航物流实现营收240.56亿元,同比增长16.66%,营收规模创下十年来新高;录得净利润26.88亿元,同比微增8.01%。

东航物流过去10年营收走势  图片来源:wind

  尽管东航物流营收水平创下新高,并超过2021年-2022年行业景气高点时期的水平。但是其净利润水平与营收规模不相匹配,2024年的盈利额距离景气高点仍有近10亿元的差距。

  4月17日开盘,东航物流股价并未提振。截至发稿前,其股价报12.44元,跌幅为1.97%。拉长时间线来看,东航物流当前股价相比IPO以来已经跌去了21.05%,今年年初至今跌幅也达到了26.26%。

  成本控制存隐忧,全货机引进未达计划

  营收、净利增速不同步的背后,折射出东航物流成本端的攀升。

  过去的2024年,东航营业成本为193.82亿元,同比增长近20%,明显高于营业收入增速。营业成本占营业收入比例高达80.57%。而此前的2021至2023年,这一比例分别为72.21%、72.28%和78.46%,营业成本率呈逐年上升的趋势。

  成本分析表显示,2024年东航物流涨幅居前的成本项目主要包括运输服务价款、航空运费成本和贸易成本,各自的同比涨幅在46.71%、19.11%和89.47%。

  东航物流方面解释称,运输服务价款变动主要系报告期内客机腹舱运力投入增加所致;航空运费成本的变动原因为丰富运力网络并增加综合物流解决方案业务市场竞争力,公司外采运力增加所致;贸易成本变动原因主要系报告期内公司产地直达业务规模扩大所致。

  从其表述来看,东航物流成本攀升一个共性原因在于业务扩张。不过,按照投入产出比来衡量,业务扩张并未带来相应经营指标的提升,对东航物流而言仍是一个风险信号。

  财报披露,2024年东航物流主营业务毛利率不升反降,毛利率水平为19.40%,同比下降2.11个百分点。此外,受产地直达解决方案业务预付款增加等原因所致,2024年东航物流经营活动产生的现金流量净额同比减少29.10%。

  但是东航方面也提到,2024年公司积极实施降本增效措施,管理费用和销售费用合计占营业收入的比例同比下降0.20个百分点。

  若与同行业的南航物流相比,东航物流增收不增利表现得更加明显。据南航财报显示,2024年南航物流营收规模196.53亿元,净利润41.86亿元。这也意味着,东航物流比南航物流营收高,但利润却偏低。

  对于这一现象,2022年东航物流在答复投资者提问提到,两者差异主要在于东航物流全货机数量为10架,而南航物流为16架,两者全货机产生的收入比重不同。在目前市场环境下,全货机业务的毛利率相对较高,公司将加大货机运力的投入。

  界面新闻注意到,截至2024年末,东航物流拥有14架B777全货机,相比此前的10架已有显著增长。去年7月份,东航物流市场营销部副总经理徐陈还透露,除了现有的14架B777F全货机,2024年还会陆续接收3到4架B77F全货机。但是从年报披露的数据来看,全货机数量并未变化,引进没能按计划达成。

  营收结构悄然生变

  作为航空物流服务提供商,东航物流主营业务可分为航空速运、地面综合服务、综合物流解决方案三大板块。

  以往,航空速运是东航物流最重要的业绩支撑。据界面新闻梳理,2021年即东航物流上市的第一年,航空速运贡献营收的半壁江山,达到55.97%,同比提升超4个百分点。2022年航空速运营收占比再度提升,达到56.64%。

  但是从2023年开始,综合物流解决方案板块营收占比与航空速运板块拉齐,二者分别为44.28%和44.24%。到2024年,综合物流解决方案营收占比一举反超航空速运,达到51.89%,为公司贡献过半的收入。

  在这背后,依然离不开跨境电商带来的旺盛需求。

  近年来,拼多多Temu、SHEIN等国内跨境电商崛起、出口需求量激增,成为航空货运市场火爆的重要因素。日前,中航协举行的专家沙龙研讨会上也提到,受全球制造业复苏乏力及贸易需求疲软影响,传统航空货运量增长缓慢。相比之下,跨境电商持续蓬勃发展,成为航空货运市场的核心驱动力。

  东航物流已然成为跨境电商发展的受益者。财报中称,2024年东航物流主营业务收入240.42亿元,同比增长16.65%,主要受益于以跨境电商物流解决方案和产地直达解决方案为代表的综合物流解决方案业务收入快速增长,综合物流解决方案业务收入同比增长36.72%,

  细化来看,从2018年至2024年,跨境电商解决方案为东航物流贡献营收比例从不起眼的2.74%一路攀升到24.58%。2024年,跨境电商解决方案实现主营业务收入59.20亿元,同比增加26.01%。跨境电商进出口单量达到7539万单,较2023年上涨40.94%。

图片来源:东航物流2024年报

  眼下,中美“对等关税”政策影响持续,航空物流不可避免受到冲击。

  东航物流方面称,美国频繁调整关税政策并计划取消小额包裹免税政策,对依赖航空货运的跨境电商直邮模式将造成冲击,预计跨境电商平台可能加速向“海运+海外仓”的半托管模式转型,这将对航空货运需求产生负面影响。

  同时,受关税政策反制措施影响,公司全货机维修成本将大幅增加。叠加全球贸易环境复杂性、严峻性、不确定性的进一步上升,如各国采取或调整进出口关税措施、进出口限制措施等贸易保护手段,则会影响贸易格局、贸易方式、贸易总量,会通过客户的运输需求传导间接影响公司经营业绩。

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