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  汇通财经APP讯——据路孚特,最新数据显示,美国债券市场正经历一场前所未有的资金大逃亡。在特朗普政府加征关税可能加剧通胀的阴影下,投资者正以创纪录的速度撤离债券市场,这场资本外流已持续整整五周未见缓和。

图:美国国内股票、债券及货币市场基金的资金流动情况,绿色柱为债券

  美国债券基金遭遇“五连杀”

  根据伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)理柏(Lipper)最新报告,截至4月16日当周,美国债券基金净流出高达100.7亿美元。这已是该类基金连续第五周遭遇资金撤离,累计流出规模惊人。值得注意的是,虽然较前一周156.4亿美元的“大失血”有所缓和,但市场恐慌情绪仍在持续蔓延。

  资金流向现极端分化

  在整体债市遭遇抛售的背景下,资金流向呈现两极分化:

  中短期投资级基金成为重灾区,单周净流出63亿美元,延续前周66.6亿美元的撤离态势

  中短期政府和公债基金则逆势吸金68.2亿美元,成为罕见的安全港

  一般国内应税固定收益基金也未能幸免,净流出22.2亿美元

  股债双杀格局形成

  这场资本外逃不仅限于债市:

  美国股票基金单周净流出106.2亿美元,与前周净流入65亿美元形成强烈反差。

  科技、医疗保健和大宗消费品板块分别遭遇8.19亿、5.14亿和3.48亿美元净流出。

  货币市场基金更是连续第二周失血,规模高达惊人的1317.4亿美元。

  【深度解析】

  市场分析人士指出,这轮资本大迁徙直接反映了投资者对特朗普关税政策的深度忧虑。随着进口商品价格上涨压力加剧,市场普遍预期通胀可能再度抬头,迫使美联储推迟降息计划。在这种预期下,资金正加速撤离风险资产,转向更具防御性的投资品种。这场由政策不确定性引发的市场动荡,恐将持续冲击全球投资格局。

谁掌握骑手资源,谁就握住了即时零售的生命线。

京东和美团两家关于骑手能否自由接单的争论正在白热化。4月21日,京东发文表示,有竞对平台再次玩起“二选一”游戏,强迫骑手不能接京东平台的秒送订单,否则封杀。当天晚间,美团发布辟谣声明,称没有任何理由对某平台进行任何限制。

这场交锋,将即时配送行业的运力争夺战推向台前。随着京东外卖以百亿补贴强势入局,日均500万订单的履约压力直指影响即时零售行业履约效率的关键——骑手资源。

平台竞争给骑手带来哪些影响?第一财经记者近日采访了多名外卖骑手。

广州美团众包骑手周云(化名)的接单记录,揭示了平台角力的一角:4月21日,周云一共完成了19单京东外卖,以及61单美团外卖。平台派单方面,周云表示,自己在京东外卖平台上等级较低,除了午高峰平台会派单,多数情况下要抢单。

“今天目前为止接了2个京东外卖的订单,其他订单因为不顺路都被我转掉了。”4月22日,在接受第一财经采访时,周云表示除了京东外卖订单增加,近期工作并没有变化。

周云成为美团众包骑手已经2年,此前也注册了达达。虽然是众包骑手,但周云属于美团小队,所以日常以跑美团为主。近期因为京东外卖配送费较高,他接了不少京东外卖的订单。据他观察,目前京东外卖的配送费每单较其他平台高1到2元,如果有补贴一单收入甚至能增加7元。

配送费比较高的同时,周云感受到京东外卖对配送时间的高要求。他说,通常其他平台会给出总配送时间要求,例如30分钟内送到,京东则会细化配送流程。“京东有到店时间、取餐时间和送餐时间。到店时间可以接受,但是取餐时间取决于商家的出餐速度,骑手无法控制。”目前周云还没有遇到过延时送达的情况。周云提供的《达达管理说明》显示,取货超时需要扣20%的运费。

和周云类似,上海美团众包骑手李波(化名)也提到,由于商家出餐并不固定。李波对第一财经表示,他遇过到店后商家未能及时出餐的情况,为了不超时李波当时没有再接其他订单。虽然最后没有超时,但对他收入产生了影响。

李波已经当了3年的美团众包骑手,相较于专送骑手只能配送美团外卖的订单,众包骑手更加自由。除了来自美团的订单,他也能配送来自饿了么、达达等平台的订单。李波近期经常配送京东外卖的订单,以咖啡订单为主。

“很多骑手最近都在接京东外卖的单子。”李波透露,由于目前京东外卖订单的起送价比其他平台高出约1元,因此受到不少骑手的欢迎,“库迪咖啡的配送费是4.5元,但是很多是打包单,可以一起送,收入也不低。”

近半个月,李波明显感受到京东外卖的订单在增加,主要是由于京东外卖在4月11日上线了百亿补贴,面向全体用户发放补贴,最高20元。

不过,也有骑手因为京东外卖订单不稳定,跑了一段时间后决定放弃。另一位广州骑手对第一财经表示,虽然京东外卖的配送费较高,但作为老骑手很难抢到。“我注册达达比较早,没有新人福利。3月骑手比较少时我可以接到订单,现在新手多了我们这些老骑手无法抢到订单。”因此,上述骑手过去两周以配送美团订单为主。

对于美团、京东两家平台争论不休的“二选一”事件,多位骑手对第一财经记者表示,作为美团众包骑手能正常配送京东外卖的订单。同时,美团、饿了么、达达等接单平台软件都可以同时在线。

本次“二选一”之争,在于随着订单增加平台如何获得充足的运力进行履约。4月15日,京东表示外卖订单量将超过500万单。此前,有达达骑手对第一财经表示,他一天约配送50单。以每位骑手每天配送50单计算,500万单需要10万名全职骑手。

从招募骑手进展看,3月20日,京东外卖宣布已与超10000名全职骑手签署正式劳动合同,在4月21日京东表示未来三个月将招聘名额由5万名提高到10万名。

除了全职骑手,不少京东外卖订单由达达骑手配送。据公开数据,达达骑手年活跃规模大约为130万,日活跃规模大约在30万左右,达达骑手可以接多个平台的订单,包括美团、饿了么等。

  欧元区国债收益率在复活节后的交易中几乎没有变化,并且表现仍优于美国国债。

  在美国总统特朗普多次喊话美联储主席鲍威尔降息,并暗示可能解雇鲍威尔后,美国国债表现不佳,收益率上升。美国国债收益率曲线周一变得更为陡峭。

  市场等待周三公布的4月PMI初值数据,这是推动市场走势的关键指标之一。

  德国10年期国债收益率持平于2.461%,美国10年期国债收益率上升1.5个基点,至4.419%。

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