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  本报记者孟珂

  4月16日,国家统计局发布数据显示,2025年3月份,住房市场成交活跃度提升,70个大中城市中,商品住宅销售价格环比上涨城市个数增加;一线城市商品住宅销售价格环比上涨;各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅均继续收窄。

  58安居客研究院院长张波对《证券日报》记者表示,3月份70城房价数据反映了房地产市场迎来“小阳春”,一线城市回暖明显。楼市在政策托底下的结构性复苏,验证了“政策底”向“市场底”传导的实际效果,但供需关系的根本性改善仍需时间,城市间分化仍是长期主题,后续需关注政策落实效果与经济环境联动性。

  一季度房价运行总体稳定

  从环比看,3月份,一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨0.1%,涨幅与2月份相同。其中,上海和深圳分别上涨0.7%和0.1%,北京和广州分别下降0.2%和0.1%。一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比由2月份下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%。其中,北京、上海、深圳分别上涨0.5%、0.4%和0.3%,广州下降0.2%。

  3月份,二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比持平,与2月份相同;二手住宅环比下降0.2%,降幅比2月份收窄0.2个百分点。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.2%,降幅收窄0.1个百分点;二手住宅环比下降0.3%,降幅收窄0.1个百分点。

  “二三线城市二手房‘以价换量’表现明显,虽然二手房价格环比下行,但市场热度却不断升高。结合安居客数据来看,信心的确在修复,二手房成交周期缩短、在架时长连续回落,显示购房者加速入市,推动价格触底回升。”张波说。

  3月份,70个大中城市中,新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨城市有24个,比2月份增加6个;二手住宅环比上涨城市有10个,比2月份增加7个。

  国家统计局副局长盛来运在国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会上表示,一季度房价运行总体稳定。70个大中城市房价监测数据显示,3月份无论是一线城市还是二三线城市,无论是新房还是二手房,价格均有积极变化。3月份一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比上涨,二线、三线城市住宅销售价格环比降幅收窄。从这个角度来看,房地产调控政策的效应还在显现。

  市场交易继续改善

  数据显示,一季度,全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降3%,降幅比去年全年收窄9.9个百分点,比前2个月收窄2.1个百分点;销售额下降2.1%,降幅比去年全年收窄15个百分点,比前2个月收窄0.5个百分点。

  从40个重点城市监测情况看,一季度新建商品房销售面积和销售额分别增长1.2%和4.4%。一线城市整体表现较好,一季度新建商品房销售面积增长0.6%,市场交易趋于活跃。

  麟评居住大数据研究院首席分析师王小嫱对《证券日报》记者表示,今年开年新房市场的成交表现好于预期,成交降幅较去年呈现明显收窄局面。随着政策的持续利好及新房产品升级,二季度成交量降幅有望转正。

  盛来运表示,在政策的作用下,房地产市场延续止跌回稳走势,市场交易继续改善。从去年四季度以来,相关部门制定了一系列政策,改善房地产投资,加大城市老旧小区改造,加大保障房建设力度,对房地产企业提出“白名单”制度,金融贷款给予支持。

  与此同时,房地产企业经营状况也有所改善。一季度房地产开发企业到位资金中,国内企业贷款降幅比前2个月收窄3.8个百分点,个人按揭贷款降幅收窄4.7个百分点,这也反映出促进房地产止跌回稳的政策效果持续显现。

  在王小嫱看来,一季度,受到销售端改善的带动,行业到位资金也呈现明显的改善。同时,国内贷款环境宽松,支持房企融资的举措在积极落地。

  “总体来看,房地产市场现在还处于调整阶段,市场需求还需要进一步释放。从发展空间来看,国内消费结构总体上还处在升级过程中,房地产市场成长空间巨大,居民对绿色、宽敞、舒服的‘好房子’需求较大。”盛来运表示,下一步要认真贯彻落实好一系列政策措施,持续加大“好房子”的建设力度,积极构建房地产发展新模式,促进房地产持续健康发展。

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