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消防员队长VS软弱小老师:禁忌之爱与权力的较量
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消防员队长VS软弱小老师:禁忌之爱与权力的较量

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  每经记者肖芮冬    每经编辑赵云    

  4月24日,市场全天震荡分化,三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘,沪指涨0.03%,深成指跌0.58%,创业板指跌0.68%。

  板块方面,PEEK材料、电力、宠物经济、银行等板块涨幅居前,次新股、软件开发、华为昇腾、算力等板块跌幅居前。

  全市场超3600只个股下跌。沪深两市全天成交额1.11万亿元,较上个交易日缩量1207亿。

  今天上午,A股市场突然出现调整,盘面与上周三(4月16日)有一些相似之处。

  比如:

  1)下跌个股一度超4000家,小盘股全天弱于大盘股;

  2)避险资产上涨,最典型的如银行板块,工、农、中三大行今日续创历史新高。;

  3)上证指数独红,其余股指偏弱。

  好在,一度同步流出的各方资金,午后止住势头,大盘也随之走平。

  即便如此,想必还是有不少投资者担心:市场向上补缺的进程,还顺利吗?今日复盘我们就主要来聊聊这个。

  回顾4月7日以来的修复行情,每天板块轮动有个比较笼统的“规律”:

  当消息面提示贸易摩擦加剧时,市场更重视“内需消费”和“避险”;

  当出现缓和信号,“出海链”则会有所修复。

  虽然反复“拉扯”,但风格切换总体是良性的,毕竟全A平均股价也在涨跌交替中,渐渐补缺。

  比如今天,从同花顺行业指数来看,尽管电力、银行、保险、煤炭等高股息资产纷纷领涨,但场内也有化学制药、风电、食品加工制造等其他板块保持活跃。以及,多只高位股尾盘走出反包走势,安记食品、国芳集团均上演“地天板”。

  场内ETF中,除了港股通ETF这类跨境型产品,银行、绿电、医药、黄金、红利低波等多方向产品也各有一席之地。

  对于电力板块,消息面上,近日国家能源局发布数据显示,2025年3月份全社会用电量8282亿千瓦时,同比增长4.8%。此外,国家能源局发布中国绿色电力证书发展报告(2024),截至2024年12月底,全国累计核发绿证49.55亿个,京津冀、长三角、粤港澳地区合计交易绿证达2.4亿个,超交易总量的50%。

  长江证券表示,“碳中和”时代号召和电力市场化改革将贯穿整个“十四五”期间,电力运营商内在价值将全面重估。随着电力体制改革稳步推进,火电经营环境有望持续改善,新能源三重底部共振下,行业投资长夜将明。

  对于银行板块,据报道,近期A股上市银行2025年一季度经营“成绩单”正相继披露。目前已有9家银行披露了一季度报告、业绩快报或主要经营情况。

  从披露数据来看,不少银行在一季度实现了营收净利润双增长。从资产端表现来看,已披露数据的上市银行一季度信贷投放保持稳健扩张态势。

  有机构认为,在经济复苏背景下,银行业作为顺周期有望直接获益,建议继续关注大型国有银行和优质城商行。

  对于今日盘中突发的调整,有分析人士认为,五一长假将至,股指反弹了两百点之后,来到了一个获利避险区间。从以往行情来看,长假前夕大多会有一次避险交易出现,特别是杠杆资金。

  对于后市,分析认为,向下依然有支撑。4月18日召开国务院常务会议指出,要持续稳定股市,持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。相关举措一旦推出,要直达企业和群众,提高落地效率,确保实施效果。后续4月底召开的高层会议也存在再度强调这一观点的可能。

  太平洋证券研报指出,与市场上方套牢盘的压力相比,当前市场成交额仍不足以形成有效突破,预计后续仍将维持震荡走势。方向上,预计后续市场将以消费、科技和红利三者轮动上涨,考虑到资金节前的避险需求,预计行情更可能在节后展开。

  湘财证券表示,预期5月政策面转强,关注红利和消费。

  宏观面,在美国推行“对等关税”的大环境下,4月政治局会议预期会有新政策落地,2025年的5月份将比历年积极,具体需要跟踪财政政策落地情况,在4月LPR继续保持不变的状况下,降准成为目前市场期待的主要方向;

  市场面,资金方面大概率保持相对宽松,主要来源是长期资金入市;

  基本面,在4月份年报披露完毕后,5月处于相对空窗阶段。

  其认为,短维度来看,4月份美国“对等关税”导致全球资本市场市场风险偏好下降,预期对我国出口的影响将在5、6月份逐步显现。建议5月份继续关注红利相关板块,银行、保险、港口交运等;以及预期将受益于推动国内消费政策的领域,饮料乳品、调味发酵品等。

  韩国官员4月23日表示,由于日本国内大米价格持续上涨,越来越多日本游客在韩国购买大米带回国。

△4月21日,一名日本游客在首尔火车站附近的超市查看韩国大米。

  《韩国时报》援引多名分管零售业事务的官员的话报道,最近几周,越来越多日本游客在首尔的超市里采购大米。

  韩国广播公司发布的一段视频显示,在首尔一家超市的大米售卖区,几名日本女性在选购大米。她们说,当地米价约是日本的一半。

  一名日本游客在社交平台上分享了自己在韩国买米的经历。她自称是中年家庭主妇,本月早些时候从菲律宾宿务出发,在首尔停留时买了4公斤大米和5公斤糙米。她写道,10公斤大米在日本售价约8000日元(约合409元人民币),在韩国只卖约3000日元(约合153元人民币),“日本米价太高了”。

  由于大米属于受管制农产品,她必须在韩国仁川国际机场办理检疫手续,拿到植物出口证后才能将大米带回国。整个过程用时约30分钟。机场动植物检疫官员说,最近几周发放的向日本出口大米的检疫证数量激增,3月发证数量比2024年同期高20倍。

  一年内米价翻倍创历史新高

△日本埼玉县一家加工厂的储备米

  日本米价自去年夏天开始持续上涨。日本农林水产省本月21日发布的数据显示,一袋5公斤装大米均价4217日元(约合216元人民币),是去年同期的两倍多,刷新农林水产省开始相关统计以来最高纪录。

  为平抑米价,除拍卖储备米,日本政府将目光投向韩国。韩国一家农企4月21日说,计划向日本出口22吨大米,其中2吨已进入日本市场。依照韩国媒体说法,这2吨大米在两周内售罄。

  2025年一季度,熊猫乳品股份有限公司(以下简称“熊猫乳品”)交出一份大幅下滑的成绩单。公司实现营业收入1.70亿元,同比减少8.27%;归母净利润0.14亿元,同比下滑48.76%,多项核心指标出现下滑,引发市场关注。

  2025年一季度,公司营业成本同比下降3.35%,主要受益于原材料成本优化。然而,期间费用率上升,成为压制利润的关键因素。其中,销售费用仅减少1.13%,管理费用因人工成本增加同比上升9.79%。同时,经营活动现金流净额转负,主要系销售回款减少及预付货款增加所致。投资收益更是大幅下滑138.99%,源于理财产品收益减少及联营企业投资亏损扩大,导致净利润显著承压。

  从产品和市场表现来看,熊猫乳品主营业务收入1.70亿元,较上年同期的1.85亿元同比下降8.27%。核心乳制品业务虽收入占比保持稳定,但受市场需求波动影响,炼乳及奶酪产品销量出现下滑。销售布局方面,国内华东、华南等传统优势区域仍贡献主要收入,公司虽通过电商渠道加强下沉市场渗透,海外业务以东南亚市场为主,市场拓展成效有待检验。

  在业绩承压的同时,熊猫乳品股价却出现异动。2025年一季度,公司股票连续三个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过30%。经公司核查确认,前期披露信息无需更正或补充,经营状况及内外部环境未发生重大变化,且公司、控股股东及实际控制人不存在应披露而未披露的重大事项。尽管公司运营合规性得到验证,但股价与业绩的背离,引发投资者对其估值合理性的质疑。有市场分析人士指出,在行业竞争加剧、消费需求疲软的大环境下,熊猫乳品若无法有效提升产品竞争力、优化费用结构,仅靠原材料成本优化难以扭转业绩颓势。后续其在新市场拓展、新产品研发及投资业务调整上的进展,将成为影响公司业绩走向的关键因素,也值得投资者持续关注。

  (注:本文系AI工具辅助创作完成,不构成投资建议。)

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