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  来源:证券之星

  百年老字号九芝堂(000989.SZ,下称“ST九芝(维权)”)近期发布的2024年年报显示,公司实现营收和归母净利润分别为:23.71亿元和2.16亿元,较上年同期分别下降:19.91%和27.31%。这也是公司连续两年呈现业绩双降。

  证券之星注意到,2024年,公司处方药板块贡献的收入较上年大幅下降14.76%,其中该板块旗下核心产品疏血通注射液自2021年起连续三年收入下滑。受2024年医保目录部分内容调整影响,这一核心产品医保报销范围再度缩窄,未来能否扭转收入下滑颓势充满不确定性。

  主业收入承压下,ST九芝近年也在向创新药、干细胞等前沿领域布局,不过前述业务还处于临床研发阶段,转型远水难解业绩增长近渴。更严峻的是,原实控人李振国还需兑现三年(2025年至2027年)合计9亿元扣非净利润的对赌承诺,而公司已连续7年扣非归母净利润未突破3亿元,业绩承诺实现面临巨大挑战。

  01. OTC毛利率全年锐减8.72%

  2024年,ST九芝的营收结构呈现“两极分化”态势:核心业务承压明显,新兴业务虽增长强劲但体量尚小。公司年报显示,公司三大产品板块中,OTC与处方药作为传统支柱,2024年营收分别为11.34亿元和11.32亿元,同比下滑24.69%和14.76%,拖累整体业绩表现;相比之下,大健康产品板块实现收入2164.82万元,同比上涨35.86%。然而,由于该业务目前规模较小,占公司总营收比重不足1%,短期内仍难以弥补核心板块收入下滑带来的缺口。

  对于整体业绩下滑的原因,ST九芝表示,受医保政策、市场需求变化和市场结构调整等综合因素影响,公司部分产品销售下降,导致公司营业收入下降,加之原材料采购价格上涨等原因导致营业成本上升,公司报告期内盈利有所下降。

  证券之星了解到,2023年12月,国家医疗保障局发布《关于促进同通用名同厂牌药品省际间价格公平诚信、透明均衡的通知》,提出指导医药采购机构聚焦“四同药品”(指通用名、厂牌、剂型、规格均相同的药品),对照全国现有挂网药品价格统计形成监测价,进行全面梳理排查,到2024年3月底前,基本消除“四同药品”省际间的不公平高价、歧视性高价。

  在此政策背景下,ST九芝的OTC业务板块承压,面临全国价格体系重构的巨大挑战。例如该板块旗下的拳头产品之一六味地黄丸需与同仁堂、仲景等品牌在统一价格框架下竞争,可能会挤压终端利润空间。

  分季度看,证券之星注意到,2024年第一季度,公司营收达10.79亿元,营收占比超四成,此后便呈现出连续下滑趋势,直至第四季度,营收仅为3.08亿元。归母净利润方面,第一季度是全年唯一突破亿元大关的季度,随后三个季度持续走低。到2024年第四季度,公司更是陷入亏损为负2410.22万元。值得注意的是,与上一年同期对比,公司每个季度的归母净利润均出现大幅下滑。而在毛利率方面,2024年,ST九芝整体毛利率为59.12%,较上年下滑1.43个百分点,其中OTC板块毛利率下滑幅度更为显著,同比下滑8.72个百分点,降至43.64%。

  02. 核心产品三年收入缩水29%

  作为ST九芝处方药板块的核心单品,疏血通注射液曾贡献超两成营收,但近年来业绩持续承压。数据显示,该产品收入从2021年的8.29亿元逐年下滑,至2023年已降至5.88亿元。公司在2023年年报问询回复中表示,销售遇冷主要源于两大因素:一是未能参与广东省药品招标采购,以及19省区市组成的湖北中成药省际联盟集中带量采购;二是医保支付政策持续收紧,产品适用人群被严格限定为二级及以上医疗机构中具备明确缺血性脑血管疾病急性发作证据的重症患者,限制了临床使用范围。

  医保政策的变动进一步加剧了产品销售压力。证券之星注意到,尽管2023年国家医保目录解除了对疏血通注射液等部分中药注射剂的支付限制,但次年政策再度调整,2024年医保目录将其适用群体从缺血性心脑血管疾病,调整为仅涵盖急性脑梗塞患者。这一改变缩小了产品的医保覆盖范围,尽管公司强调影响可控,但产品未来市场份额是否会被进一步挤压,仍存在较大不确定性,市场表现有待时间验证。

  两大核心业务板块营收齐跌,成为ST九芝业绩下滑的直接诱因。事实上,公司已陷入连续三年营收下滑、连续两年归母净利润双位数降幅的困局。2023年,原实控人李振国违规占用资金事件更是雪上加霜,会计师事务所对公司2023年度内部控制出具否定意见。这一负面审计结果直接导致公司股票于2024年4月26日被实施“其他风险警示”。同年11月,公司发布实控权变更公告,李振国以7.19元/股的价格将其持有的公司53500000股股份(占公司总股本的6.25%)转让给辰能创投,转让款合计为3.85亿元。

  上述前述交易完成后,辰能创投持股比例达到24.04%,成为公司控股股东,公司实控人变更为黑龙江省国资委,而李振国持股比例减少至18.91%,退居第二大股东。

  03. 新业务难解近渴

  值得关注的是,在此次股权转让过程中,李振国作出了业绩承诺:上市公司在标的股份完成过户后的三个会计年度(即业绩承诺期)内,经审计的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润总和不得低于9亿元。若最终业绩未达承诺标准,李振国需在业绩承诺期结束后,就差额部分向交易方进行现金补偿。

  今年1月5日,上述转让的股份正式完成过户登记手续,即业绩承诺期为2025年至2027年。然而该业绩承诺对ST九芝而言颇具有挑战性,公司平均每年实现的扣非净利润需达到3亿元,而公司已经连续8年扣非归母净利润未突破3亿元。

  从2024年的节点看,ST九芝正面临着传统核心业务增长乏力与新兴业务培育漫长的双重困境。尤其在新兴业务方面,ST九芝此前进行了多款创新药研发,并切入干细胞治疗领域。年报显示,公司正在推动两款仿制药YB212、SQ213的上市,其中YB212已完成注册批次生产,但预计完成时间需要到2026年6月30日,SQ213则未有具体的上市时间线。

  公司创新药研发领域主要聚焦于抗凝药物(YB209项目)、抗生素(YB211项目)及糖尿病药物(REMD-477)等方向。年报显示,YB209项目完成I期临床试验所有受试者的入组和出组等收尾工作;YB211项目则进入II期临床试验不久。REMD-477则正在中国1型糖尿病患者中开展临床试验,后续尚需申请开展Ⅲ期临床试验并经国家药品监督管理局审评、审批通过后方可生产上市。公司表示,新药各研发事项的推进时间较长,存在不确定性,短期内不会对公司经营业绩产生重大影响。

  同样,干细胞治疗项目虽具有一定前景,但公司在报告期内还在围绕干细胞治疗缺血性脑卒中、干细胞治疗自身免疫性肺泡蛋白沉积症等项目进行研发,距离商业化落地、实现盈利还有很长的路要走。若仅依赖传统业务,在医保政策持续收紧、核心产品医保适用范围缩窄以及市场竞争白热化态势下,实现上述业绩承诺,难度不容小觑。(本文首发证券之星,作者|吴凡)

 

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  摩根大通发布研报称,特步国际(01368)首季经营数据符合预期,特步主品牌零售销售同比增长中单位数,索康尼延续去年良好势头,首季增幅超过40%。考虑到宏观不确定性下竞争加剧,小摩将特步2025至2027年的盈利预测下调1%至2%,目标价由6港元降至5.6港元,维持“中性”评级,目前预测2025年全年销售额及净利润将分别增长6%及11%。

  报告指,特步管理层透露,由于海外销售贡献低于1%,美国市场的业务占比有限,加上索康尼的供应链主要在中国和东南亚,相信关税影响有限,维持2025财年盈利增长超过10%的指引,同时直接面向消费者(DTC)转型准备工作正按计划进行,截至4月的零售销售表现符合公司预期,库存和折扣保持稳定。

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