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  汇通财经APP讯——周二亚洲市场交易时段,美元兑日元(USD/JPY)跌至140.00附近,刷新2024年9月以来低点。主因在于美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的持续批评,进一步打压市场对美元的信心。

  同时,全球投资者在贸易担忧情绪持续发酵的背景下,将更多资金流入避险资产,其中日元受益明显。

  北极星投资管理公司首席投资官EricKuby表示:“特朗普与鲍威尔之间的僵局令人担忧,一旦总统采取极端措施更换美联储主席,美元市场可能出现恐慌。”

  美联储或将降息,日本央行加息预期构成强烈对比

  日本央行据悉将在下周会议中维持加息路径不变,理由是美国关税影响尚未打破日本通胀与工资增长的良性循环。而市场普遍预计美联储将在今年6月启动新一轮降息周期,全年累计降息达1个百分点。

  这一政策分歧使日元的升值趋势更具持续性。当前市场对美联储政策前景的不确定性,与日本政策透明度形成鲜明对照,推动资金向日元倾斜。

  据市场调查显示,交易员认为“除非美国经济数据出现意外反弹,否则美联储年内降息已成定局。”

  日本官员明确立场,日美谈判恐将旷日持久

  在上周的日美首轮谈判后,日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正表示,目前尚难预测双方达成协议的时点,强调日本不会为保护汽车产业而牺牲农业利益。日本财政大臣加藤胜信本周稍晚将会晤美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特,讨论货币汇率问题。

  这一立场显示,日方对美方贸易压力持强硬态度,使得美元兑日元走势更受制于避险驱动。

  美元技术走势疲弱,跌破140关口或触发进一步抛售

  从技术角度看,虽然日图相对强弱指数(RSI)略显超卖,但仍未能阻止市场看空美元情绪。跌破140.00整数关口之后,下一目标或指向2024年低点区域139.60–139.55。

  若短期反弹出现,141.60–141.65区间将构成初步阻力,若站稳该区域,才可能触发短线回补行情,向142.35–142.40区域上攻。

  编辑观点:

  美元兑日元的持续下行已经不只是贸易紧张或利差预期的问题,更反映出市场对美国货币政策体制稳定性的信心下滑。

  如果美联储被迫屈从于政治干预,将引发国际投资者重新评估美元资产的长期价值。日元作为全球最重要的避险货币之一,在政策明确且政治干预风险极低的前提下,短中期内或将持续吸引避险资金。

  若特朗普继续加大对美联储的政治攻势,不排除美元兑日元跌破139关口的可能。

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