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  北京时间4月21日晚,美股周一低开。全球贸易谈判几无进展。特朗普对美联储独立性的威胁,使投资者担心美元信誉下降并导致美国经济下滑。股票、美元和国债同时下挫,黄金突破每盎司3400美元创历史新高。

  在过去四周,美股三大股指有三次录得周线跌幅。虽然标普500指数上周四收高,但该指数上周仍累计下跌1.5%。道指下跌2.66%,纳指下跌2.62%。

  英伟达上周下跌近6%,给大盘带来了压力。该公司上周二透露,由于对其H20图形处理单元出口到其他国家和地区的管制,它将计提约55亿美元的季度费用。

  美股财报季进入关键期,因为未来几天,将有100多家标准普尔500指数公司公布财报,其中这包括谷歌的母公司Alphabet和Tesla等“科技股七巨头”成员,以及航空航天巨头波音等其他公司。

  上周五美国市场休市以纪念耶稣受难日。周一是复活节假期,多数欧洲市场仍处于休市状态。

  围绕特朗普关税不确定性的高度担忧最近给华尔街带来了压力。自4月2日特朗普宣布对来自其他国家的进口商品征收高额关税以来,美股三大股指至少下跌了约7%。

  上周末,芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦-古尔斯比(AustanGoolsbee)在接受采访时表示,关税可能导致美国经济活动在夏季前“下滑”。

  在此之前,美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔在上周三表示,他担心特朗普的关税可能会使央行面临通胀上涨和经济下滑的困难。

  特朗普呼吁鲍威尔尽快下台

  围绕美联储独立性的质疑也损害了美股。特朗普上周四呼吁美联储降息,甚至暗示鲍威尔应该“下台”。

  上周五,美国国家经济委员会主任凯文-哈塞特表示,特朗普正在研究是否有权解雇鲍威尔。

  特朗普对美联储迟迟未降息感到沮丧,他上周在社交媒体上发文称,鲍威尔“被解雇的那一天越快越好!”白宫周五表示,官员们正在评估是否可以撤换这位美联储主席。这不是特朗普第一次批评鲍威尔对美国货币政策的态度。

  盛宝银行新加坡首席投资策略师CharuChanana表示:“由于地缘政治紧张局势愈演愈烈,市场情绪本已紧张,如今特朗普可能干预美联储的担忧又加剧了市场的不安。任何关于货币政策遭受政治干预的迹象,都可能削弱美联储的独立性,使利率政策前景变得更加复杂,而投资者本正期待在全球动荡中找到稳定。”

  特朗普的关税政策已经扰乱金融市场,并在4月引发国债和美元的抛售,动摇了人们长期以来对美国资产作为避风港的信念。特朗普上周对美联储和鲍威尔的持续攻击,加剧了市场对美国资产的信心危机。

  华侨银行外汇策略师ChristopherWong表示,对美联储的指责破坏了央行独立的原则,并可能使美国货币政策陷入政治化的风险,这将令市场极度不安。

  Wong说:“说实话,解雇鲍威尔的想法令人难以置信。如果美联储的公信力受到质疑,美元的信心将严重受损。”

  VitalKnowledge机构分析师AdamCrisafulli在研报中表示,投资者正在应对“宏观焦虑的新来源:特朗普对美联储独立性的威胁。这一威胁与特朗普的贸易战有关,因为尽管最近的市场波动和经济下滑风险上升,但由于未来几个月关税引发的通胀可能飙升,鲍威尔和他的同事们被迫保持观望。”

  Crisafulli表示:“股票、美元和国债同时暴跌表明,特朗普的贸易战已经引发了美国金融资产的外流,再多的谈判都无法逆转这一趋势。”

  美元指数跌破98关口

  周一早间美元下跌0.9%,ICE美元指数失守98关口,创2022年2月以来的最低水平,因对美联储独立性的担忧打压美元。美元走低推动金价创下历史新高,黄金期价上涨2.4%,突破每盎司3400美元。

  4月份迄今为止,美元已下跌约4.6%,其中兑欧元、日元和瑞士法郎的跌幅最大。

  所有G10(十国集团)货币兑美元全线上涨。日元、欧元和瑞士法郎纷纷上涨。日元的大幅走强也拖累了日本股票市场,日经225指数下跌1.3%。

  作为全球最有影响力的中央银行,美联储的公信力很大程度上建立在其远离政治干预、独立运作的历史基础之上。

  芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比警告不要动摇美联储的独立性。他表示:“几乎所有经济学家都一致认为,货币政策的独立性至关重要,美联储或任何央行必须能够独立完成自己的使命。”

  法国财政部长EricLombard也警告称,如果特朗普解雇鲍威尔,将危及美元的信誉,并可能导致美国经济不稳定。

  有迹象表明,投资者正在从美国市场撤资。德意志银行表示,一些中国客户已经减少了对美国国债的持仓,转而增持欧洲债券。该行中国宏观与新兴市场销售主管LillianTao指出,欧洲高评级债券、日本国债以及黄金可能成为美债的替代选择。

  与此同时,美国国债收益率曲线出现陡峭化——两年期国债价格上涨,而长期国债价格下跌。这表明市场押注美联储可能降息,同时也反映了投资者对长期美国资产的担忧。

  焦点个股

  传英伟达终止LeptonAI运营。近日,网上曝出LeptonAI已通知用户,Lepton将于2025年5月20日正式停止运营,此后用户将无法再访问LeptonAI平台上的服务或提交的数据,建议用户在该日期之前尽快下载或备份所需数据。服务终止时,若用户账户中仍有未使用的积分,官方将会在关停后予以退款处理。

  特斯拉一季度欧洲销量全线暴跌。此外特斯拉官网显示,为量产人形机器人Optimus,特斯拉开始大规模招聘,涉及工程师、技术员等约80个岗位,招聘规模多于以往。

  有报道称,包括Facebook、WhatsApp和Threads在内,Meta旗下应用选择禁用苹果手机的AppleIntelligence功能。这一功能是苹果公司在iOS18中推出的智能功能,自去年10月iOS18.1版本发布以来,大多数应用默认支持其功能。

  当地时间周一,Alphabet旗下的谷歌将与美国司法部以及数十位州级别的检察长在华盛顿的法庭上进行激烈对峙,就法官将下令采取何种反垄断补救措施以防止该公司继续垄断线上搜索引擎与线上广告投放市场展开辩论。

  美国政府反垄断监管部门方面提出的补救举措包括:要求谷歌出售其Chrome浏览器业务、向竞争对手授权搜索引擎内部数据,并停止为在其他线上服务和终端设备上获得排他性的地位支付巨额费用等等改变举措。

  Strategy等加密货币概念股集体走高。

  奈飞Q1业绩及Q2指引均超预期。

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