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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
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最新经济数据印证了坊间传闻:面对关税的达摩克利斯之剑,美国消费者正掀起一轮"预防性购物潮"。3月零售数据创下两年多来最大环比增幅(1.4%),其中汽车销量领涨,增幅达5.3%,建材、电子产品等进口依赖型商品亦出现显著增长。

这场消费狂欢的催化剂,是特朗普政府月底宣布的25%整车进口关税计划。美国商务部的报告与各大银行高管的评论相呼应,均指出消费者在关税政策的不确定性下表现出了较强的消费韧性。尽管消费者信心指数目前徘徊在自20世纪50年代以来的最低水平附近,但这种抢购热潮暂时掩盖了信心不足的影响。

虽然目前关税实施暂时被暂停,但政策反复已深刻改变消费者心理预期。3月份的数据涵盖了特朗普宣布并随后暂停对世界各国征收高额关税,以及将大多数中国商品的关税提高至145%之前的消费支出。这一时期,消费者对未来价格的高度不确定性促使他们提前购买商品。

关税焦虑下:消费者抢购潮涌,企业库存竞速

在汽车领域,白宫对进口汽车征收25%的关税将大幅增加汽车生产成本,其中很大一部分将转嫁给消费者。安德森经济集团的测算显示,若关税落地,普通进口车价格将上涨2500美元起,豪华车型更可能飙升2万美元。

这种预期直接催生了"买在涨价前"的集体行动——现代汽车3月销量创下历史第二佳绩,且这一强劲势头延续到了4月份。福特(F.US)零售业务同比激增19%,本田(HMC.US)全系销量增长13%。

现代汽车首席执行官何塞·穆尼奥斯表示:“四月对我们来说开局非常好。很多人都在想,‘我必须在接下来的几个月里买车’,所以今天就买吧,因为价格可能会上涨”。

一些汽车制造商已试图缓解消费者的焦虑。现代承诺将价格维持稳定直至6月2日,而福特和吉普制造商StellantisNV(STLA.US)则宣布了营销计划,以员工价格提供车型。

企业端同样上演着"与时间赛跑"的戏码。制造商加速清空库存,零售商提前备货。数据显示,第一季度工厂产量强劲增长5.1%,为2021年底以来的最高增幅,原因是许多客户在关税上调的冲击生效前增加了订单。

此外,全球最大零售商沃尔玛公司表示,尽管面临关税带来的动荡,但他们有信心公司今年能够实现财务目标。沃尔玛预计2025年的净销售额将增长高达4%。摩根大通报告显示信用卡消费同比增长7%,这些数字背后都闪烁着"关税焦虑"驱动的影子。

尽管关税威胁暂时提振了部分零售商的业绩,但市场波动以及中美贸易战的前景已导致企业暂停投资和招聘。消费者和企业都表示,这种反复无常的局面让他们感到不安,无法提前规划,也不确定下一步该怎么做。

信心冰点与消费狂潮的悖论,"末日消费"能支撑经济多久?

值得关注的是,消费者信心指数虽处于历史低位,但钱包投票却呈现相反轨迹。32岁的雅各布·汤森的故事颇具代表性:他今年早些时候开始关注新车,部分原因是担心关税和电动汽车税收抵免政策可能发生变化。他最终在3月中旬下定决心,买了一辆2025款起亚Niro电动汽车。

这种"理性恐慌"在装修市场同样蔓延,39岁的米歇尔·巴卡拉赫是人工智能家居公司FindMine的创始人。她表示,她和丈夫计划在未来90天内购买房屋装修所需的所有材料,并且两人都决定提前更新手机,否则就不得不赶在关税生效之前购买。

经济学家对此现象持矛盾态度。一方面,抢跑消费确实推高了短期数据——亚特兰大联储将一季度GDP预期从负增长修至-0.1%,零售贡献功不可没;但另一方面,这种"透支未来"的行为不可持续。

尽管经济学家提高了美国陷入经济衰退的可能性,但劳动力市场依然保持强劲,收入持续增长。这些是推动消费支出的主要因素。经济学家现在必须弄清楚零售额的繁荣将持续多久,以及接下来会发生什么。

如果说3月份的数据是受到当下为避免日后物价上涨而进行的抢购潮的推动,那么未来几个月的支出势必会放缓。安永经济学家警告,随着关税靴子落地,四季度消费可能断崖式下跌,价格敏感型支出将首当其冲。

政策反复带来的不确定性已波及投资领域。企业暂停扩产计划,酒店航空业因国际客流锐减苦不堪言。但劳动力市场仍保持韧性,薪资增长成为支撑消费的最后一根稻草。

摩根大通首席财务官杰里米·巴纳姆表示,在人们预期关税将导致物价上涨之前,会有一定程度的前期投入和支出。他补充道:“在这个过渡期和不确定性加剧的情况下,你可能会看到数据出现一些扭曲,这让我们很难得出更全面的结论”。

这场由关税引发的消费狂欢,恰似经济肌体对政策刺激的应激反应。当抢跑红利消退后,美国经济能否找到新动能,将成为检验其韧性的试金石。毕竟,建立在预期恐慌上的繁荣,终究只是海市蜃楼。

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