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  近期,在全球市场不确定性加大的背景下,作为避险资产的黄金价格屡创新高,截至4月17日发稿,COMEX黄金盘中一度触及3371.9美元/盎司。黄金资产的强势表现,吸引了大量资金的追高买入。有平台的投票显示,六成投资者认为黄金现在还能“上车”。

  在这样的情况下,招商银行、蚂蚁基金等平台纷纷向投资者提示了黄金短期波动的风险,建议投资者理性持有黄金,避免频繁交易等行为。

  蚂蚁基金提示黄金波动风险

  “黄金屡创新高,还有机会上车吗?”近日在社交平台上,这个问题被反复提及。

  天天基金平台有关黄金的最新话题阅读量已接近1900万次,近六成投资者认为黄金资产还能“上车”。

  Choice数据显示,截至4月17日发稿,COMEX黄金盘中创出3371.9美元/盎司的历史高点。4月以来,截至4月16日,黄金ETF“霸屏”ETF涨幅榜,表现最好的涨幅已接近8%。

  伴随金价持续飙升,招商银行、蚂蚁基金等多个平台纷纷行动,提示黄金价格的波动风险。

  4月16日,招商银行在其App内发布了关于贵金属业务调整的通告。该通告显示,其将自4月21日起将黄金账户活期及黄金账户定投金额的认购起点由750元调整至800元。同时,该行提示,黄金价格可能因突发政策、市场情绪变化或国际事件等因素出现短期剧烈波动,进而导致黄金账户持仓市值的快速变化。

  建设银行近日也在官网发布了关于近期贵金属业务市场风险提示的公告,提示贵金属价格波动加剧,市场风险提升。

  同时,作为场外黄金ETF代销平台,今年一季度,在蚂蚁基金平台上搜索“黄金”的用户数量同比增长了206%。该平台近期同样倡导投资者理性持有黄金,避免频繁交易等行为,并持续提醒投资者要注意波动风险,理性持有、进行定投。

  记者发现,该平台产品页面上,明确展现了“黄金定投”功能,对于风险偏好偏低的用户,会建议其“定投”、通过长期持有以获得黄金的长期回报价值;对于风险偏好较高的用户,会建议在黄金之外分散配置,以降低波动风险。

  机构关注金价短期风险

  为什么多家机构开始提示短期风险?当“创新高”成为常态,黄金后续又该如何投资?

  近期,多家华尔街大行掀起了黄金唱多潮,不少机构上调金价预期。其中,高盛将2025年底金价目标价提高至3700美元/盎司,摩根大通则预测金价达4000美元将“比预期来得更快”。

  回顾近期黄金的上涨原因,华安基金认为,主要是因为关税变化导致避险情绪升温,黄金成为了资金流入的重要资产。全球央行持续购金,如中国央行连续5个月增持黄金,以及黄金ETF资金流入激增,也为黄金提供了坚实支撑。同时,市场预计关税政策可能在未来推高通胀,且近期数据显示,4月美国消费者信心急剧恶化,12个月通胀预期升至1981年以来最高,这些都增强了黄金的抗通胀吸引力。

  然而,尽管看好长期表现,多家基金公司也频频提示黄金大涨后的短期风险。

  华安基金表示,上周美国商品期货交易委员会(CFCT)显示黄金的净多头寸削减至138465手,较前一周减少38087手,降幅创近期高点。这反映出市场对金价高位回调的担忧情绪,后续需注意空头资金的扰动情况。

  “‘赌一把’是大多数人亏钱的‘快车道’。尽管我们此刻正处在一轮黄金牛市当中,但依然会有些担心。其实,在较长的时间维度里,因为不产生现金流或者说票息,黄金是一类波动非常大的资产。”盈米基金资深投资顾问熊思远说。

  中欧财富认为,长期来看,不管是美国经济衰退、滞胀还是软着陆,都将利好黄金表现,黄金的长期投资逻辑不变,但还需防范短期波动。若波动出现,可能是由于杠杆资金降低风险偏好,或者止盈诉求所导致。

  国泰基金认为,未来投资黄金还需从交易思维向配置思维转变。黄金作为避险资产的经典之选,成为不确定时期许多投资者的优选。从资产配置角度来看,黄金与股票、债券等相关性较低,适合在投资组合里配置,以平滑组合的波动性。

  继昨日下挫,今日港股迅速开启反弹,表现出较强韧性。截至收盘,恒指、恒科指均涨逾1%,科网龙头继续拉升。阿里巴巴-W涨超3%,快手-W、腾讯控股、哔哩哔哩-W涨逾2%,小米集团-W、美团-W涨逾1%。

  重仓港股互联网龙头的港股互联网ETF(513770)低开高走,场内价格一度上探1.7%,收涨0.85%,全天成交额4.84亿元,交投活跃。

  行情趋势上,对等关税政策反复或仍将持续扰动市场,但港股具备坚实的结构性支撑。具体来看:

  ①港股多数板块以内需导向为主。如互联网平台型企业兼具,轻资产+内需市场和全球化布局特性,风险敞口较小,受关税的直接影响相对有限;国内方面,行业反内卷+监管常态化+民营企业家座谈会提振信心,内需展望乐观。

  ②南向资金持续力挺。今日南向资金再度涌入23.09亿港元,本月截至昨日已累计净流入超1500亿港元,创下2021年以来同时间段新高。特别是在跌幅较大的上周,南向资金抄底更为踊跃。单周净流入总计952.36亿港元,仅4月9日当天,南向资金净买入港股356亿港元,创造了有史以来日度净买入额新高,而港股科网板块成为资金涌入的重点目标。

  ③ 外资尤其是长线资金整体仓位维持偏低。由此即便全球避险情绪上升,对港股的抛压可能也相对有限。且上周调整后,港股性价比再度回升,有望吸引部分全球再平衡资金的流入。

  天风证券表示,港股当前估值仍处历史低位(恒生科技指数动态PE约20x,低于纳斯达克的30x)。在全球流动性宽松预期升温、国内稳增长政策加码背景下,中国科技资产风险回报比突出,外资配置意愿回升。短期关注港股流动性修复,中长期把握AI场景落地与业绩兑现主线。

  值得注意的是,在南向资金猛烈抄底的同时,港股互联网ETF(513770)亦获得资金的持续关注。上交所数据显示,港股互联网ETF(513770)近5日持续获资金增仓合计2.42亿元;时间拉长至近10日,港股互联网ETF(513770)有7日获资金净流入,区间累计吸金6.11亿元。

  变局时刻,把握港股核心科技龙头。港股互联网ETF(513770)及其联接基金(A类 017125;C类017126)被动跟踪中证港股通互联网指数,通过重仓港股互联网龙头,成为本轮港股科技行情的高效投资利器。数据显示,本轮行情启动以来至3月末,中证港股通互联网指数累计涨幅超33%,明显优于恒指、恒科指同期表现,区间最大涨幅更是高达53.59%,领涨弹性突出。

  注:中证港股通互联网指数近5个完整年度的涨跌幅分别为:2020年,109.31%;2021年,-36.61%;2022年,-23.01%;2023年,-24.74%;2024年,23.04%。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。

  截至2025年3月31日,港股互联网ETF(513770)年内日均成交额7.14亿元,支持日内T+0交易,不受QDII额度限制,流动性佳!  

  提醒:近期市场波动可能较大,短期涨跌幅不预示未来表现。请投资者务必根据自身的资金状况和风险承受能力理性投资,高度注意仓位和风险管理。

  数据来源:沪深交易所、Wind、华宝基金等。

  风险提示:港股互联网ETF被动跟踪中证港股通互联网指数,该指数基日为2016.12.30,发布于2021.1.11,指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整。文中指数成份股仅作展示,个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议,也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的该基金风险等级为R4-中高风险,适宜积极型(C4)及以上的投资者。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证,基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现,基金投资有风险,基金投资须谨慎。

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