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  来源:金十数据

  桥水基金创始人达利欧(RayDalio)近日在接受采访时警告,若当前金融、经济和贸易问题“处理不当”,可能引发“比衰退更严重的后果”。他进一步指出,局势恶化可能导致“世界秩序陷入巨大冲突”。

  对此,前美国经济增长、能源和环境副国务卿、前高盛国际副主席RobertDavid深表认同——甚至认为这一警告可能还过于保守。类似的警报并非孤例。David还担任过亨利·基辛格的高级经济顾问。

  达利欧的言论引发了David对世界应对未来金融危机能力的深切忧虑。David亲历了多次危机及其解决谈判。成功的关键不仅在于主要参与方的金融手腕,更在于彼此信任的合作意愿。

  这种信任基础如今已荡然无存。在David职业生涯中,从未见过世界在如此多经济政治议题上陷入如此深刻的不信任状态。这种不信任将成为未来金融危机谈判中的致命弱点——除非人们在危机爆发前就意识到并设法克服它。

  各国高层必须认真思考:在增长放缓、债务攀升、通胀压力、关税冲突和汇率波动的多重风险下,在充满对抗的政治环境中,如何应对可能爆发的新危机?这将是个巨大挑战,而失败将影响所有美国人乃至全球每个人。

  美国与主要盟友间的关税摩擦,已经破坏、在某些方面甚至是摧毁了过去解决危机所依赖的互信。激烈的贸易争端将使它们在新危机中的合作变得异常艰难。

  雪上加霜的是,华盛顿正在研究美国是否应退出国际货币基金组织(IMF)——应对全球危机的核心机构。同时,美国政府高层正在讨论是否应解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。鲍威尔在全球市场和政策制定者中享有极高信誉,是解决任何新危机的关键人物。这两大因素进一步加剧了本已高企的不确定性和不稳定性风险。

  面对这种敌意、摩擦与不确定性,正在华盛顿参加IMF春季会议的各国央行行长和财长们——他们曾是化解历次危机的中坚力量——亟需找到规避或应对重大金融危机威胁的方案。

  过去通常由一个大国主导危机应对进程,或负责召集关键各方。这个角色多由美国与IMF共同承担。如果此次美国不愿或不被信任担任这一角色,谁来接棒?

  历史上有过先例:1970年代,前法国总统德斯坦曾在系列危机中召集G7国家;现任法国总统马克龙和加拿大总理卡尼都具备深厚的金融背景。但更根本的问题是:当前是否有国家能获得广泛国际支持担当此任?如果没有,全球经济注定陷入混乱。

  David表示,因不确定性、经济民族主义、关税冲突升级、债务激增和汇率动荡而风声鹤唳的金融界,应将此列入最高关注事项,敦促各国政治和金融领袖制定基于协作的应急预案。凭借政治智慧、意志与信任,各国曾多次化险为夷。但若缺乏充分预案和信任合作的意愿,一场全球金融灾难可能已近在眼前。

  4月22日金融一线消息,南京银行发布2024年年度报告。2024年,公司实现营业总收入502.73亿元,同比增长11.32%;归母净利润201.77亿元,同比增长9.05%;扣非净利润199.37亿元,同比增长11.22%;经营活动产生的现金流量净额为-657.95亿元,上年同期为370.59亿元;报告期内,南京银行基本每股收益为1.83元,加权平均净资产收益率为12.97%。公司2024年度分配预案为:拟向全体股东每10股派现2.1176元(含税)。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  里昂发布研报称,同程旅行(00780)计划以25亿人民币收购万达酒店发展(00169)酒店管理、营运及设计业务,相当于该业务2023年及2024年企业价值倍数(EV/EBITDA)9.5及10.6倍。交易需获万达酒店发展股东及监管机构批准,该行予同程“跑赢大市”评级。

  该行指,万达酒店定位二线及以下城市的高端或高档市场,拥有良好的声誉,被收购的业务将保留品牌,并以高度自主方式营运。该行认为,同程可透过收购进一步扩展其现有酒店管理业务,并进军高端市场,涵盖酒店管理和核心线上旅游平台业务。收购同时可能表明,同程现金管理更专注于内部增长和并购,而非股息和股票回购。

  4月22日,永辉超市宣布,首批2个品牌的9个商品通过针对外贸受阻企业开设的绿色通道成功在北京喜隆多店、福州奥体店、杭州滨江宝龙店、临平万达店4家门店上架售卖,后续将陆续扩大外贸商品及售卖门店数量,预计在4月底将形成较大规模。

  4月7日,面对国际经济格局振荡和贸易形势变化,永辉超市积极响应并率先行动,发布《致中国优质供应链的一封信》,开通绿色通道,提出15天极速上架、品牌推广扶持、联合开发新品三大措施,为出口受阻企业搭建内销桥梁。

  截至4月22日12:00,专项邮箱已收到超500封合作邮件,并与超300家优质供应链企业进入洽谈阶段,品类覆盖范围广泛,主要集中在冷冻食品、休闲零食、家居用品等,其中包括长期为山姆、开市客供货的中国制造企业。(罗宁)

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