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玉米地被老头添的好爽:激情碰撞引发的假象与现实的对比分析
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玉米地被老头添的好爽:激情碰撞引发的假象与现实的对比分析

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财联社4月17日讯(编辑马兰)特斯拉在过去一年中坚定宣传和推进其机器人出租车项目Cybercab,不少投行也将其视为增加其未来估值的推手之一。然而,据媒体采访多位公司人士后发现,该项目立项似乎是马斯克的一言堂式决定,其实内部反对意见较多。

据悉,2024年2月底,特斯拉曾就新型经济型电动汽车Model2进行最后辩论,这款汽车也是特斯拉此前传出消息将主推的25000美元级车型。但知情人士透露,当时在马斯克召开的会议中,这款汽车项目最后被取消。

当时,特斯拉汽车项目负责人DanielHo、工程高级副总裁DrewBaglino、业务开发和政策负责人RohanPatel、汽车工程副总裁LarsMoravy以及首席设计师FranzvonHolzhausen,都敦促马斯克批准生产这款售价25000美元的新车型。

但马斯克认为,推出一款普通的、售价为25000美元的汽车毫无意义,且完全违背了特斯拉的信念。取而代之的是,马斯克批准了Cybercab项目,也就是所谓的机器人出租车,也被称为Robotaxi。

这一决定被视为特斯拉从一家电动汽车制造商向专注于自动驾驶的人工智能汽车公司的转型标志。

自动驾驶出租车前景不佳

过去5年里,特斯拉只推出了一款新车,即Cybertruck,然而这款车从商业角度来看十分失败。这也引发了部分投资者对马斯克决策的怀疑,而这一质疑情绪还可能进一步发酵。

在Cybercab项目前期的一份内部调研报告称,特斯拉高管们当时预感机器人出租车的商业前景并不乐观,模型显示自动驾驶(FSD)和Robotaxi的回报将会很慢,发展也不稳定,尤其是监管环境的缺失,很可能导致出租车服务很难在美国以外的地区铺开。

这份报告由马斯克最信任的助手DrewBaglino率团队完成,报告假设未来大部分汽车销售额将由车队运营商来贡献,而车辆将被主要用于拼车服务,个人消费者也将倾向使用更多的自动驾驶出租车。

Baglino的分析还采用了很多马斯克提出的假设,比如美国汽车销量将从每年1500万辆锐减至300万辆。在一系列乐观情景之中,该报告计算出美国每年有100万辆自动驾驶汽车的潜在需求。但考虑到竞争,Robotaxi很难达到特斯拉目前在美国每年60万辆左右的销量水平。

而从收入方面来看,报告认为Cybercab除了获得2万至2.5万美元的初始销售收入之外,特斯拉还能通过与车队运营的车费分成,总计赚到高达汽车售价三倍的利润。

但这一预期远低于马斯克之前的设想,他在2019年时提出,自动驾驶将帮助特斯拉的每一辆车价值达到10万到20万美元。

这份内部报告最后强调,机器人出租车在拓展其他市场方面面临困难,并因此受到规模和盈利能力的限制,最后可能导致特斯拉在未来数年持续亏损。

然而,马斯克驳斥了这份分析报告,一意孤行地批准了Cybercab项目。

电动汽车出版物Electrek主编指出,他对特斯拉的一大担忧是,马斯克身边可能并没有能够帮助他保持理性的管理层伙伴。此外,这一调查可能也证实了他的怀疑,即战略转变是特斯拉去年高层人才过多流失的原因之一。

2024年10月,在不到十天的时间内,特斯拉首席信息官NageshSaldi、公共政策主管JosDings、ModelX项目经理DavidZhang和汽车项目负责人DanielHo相继离职。此前,直接向马斯克汇报工作的特斯拉员工中已有近三分之一选择离开。

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