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专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

  国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告称,美国总统特朗普发起的贸易战正在威胁自2008年金融危机以来保护银行和保险业的全球金融稳定,并敦促各国政策制定者加强各自金融业的抵御能力。

  总部位于华盛顿的IMF在周二发布的报告中指出,最新的关税消息已导致部分资产价格大幅重估,并引发股票、外汇和债券市场波动加剧。若经济前景恶化,可能会有更多调整。

  “全球金融稳定风险已显著上升,”IMF表示,并警告称部分金融机构——尤其是高杠杆机构——可能面临压力。“进一步抛售的主要触发因素可能是地缘政治风险。”

  推荐阅读:市场幡然醒悟真正的特朗普交易或是抛售美国资产

  英国央行本月早些时候警告称,贸易冲突“可能通过抑制增长损害金融稳定”。

  与此同时,俄乌冲突仍在继续,和平协议仍未达成,加沙地带的战斗也在持续。

  尽管IMF发出严厉警告,但该机构货币与资本市场部门负责人TobiasAdrian表示,没有必要感到恐慌。

  他在华盛顿接受采访时表示,4月2日关税公告后市场调整的幅度和速度的确“相当突然”,“但并非无序”。

  “估值过高”

  他指出,目前尚未出现机制性失灵,全球经济并没有在迈向衰退,值得牢记的是,“先前的估值的确严重偏高”。“因此,某种程度上,这更像是正常化的过程。”

  Adrian表示,IMF正在研究市场动荡是否触发了颇受欢迎的高杠杆“基差交易”的“被迫平仓或无序平仓”。该策略旨在借美国国债中的微小定价偏差盈利。

  “我们尚未看到这种情况,可能存在一定程度的平仓,但目前仍处于可控范围,”他补充道。由于此项策略可能加剧市场压力,因此一直令监管机构不安。

  他说,如果关税谈判进展非常糟糕,那么“从金融稳定的角度来看,我们可能会陷入一个令人担忧的境地”,但他补充道,“也有可能这些紧张局势会得到一定的解决。”

  本周在华盛顿与世界银行共同举行春季会议的IMF仍敦促保持警惕。

  报告的作者写道:“相关部门应准备应对金融不稳定,确保金融机构能够获得央行流动性工具,并准备好进行干预,以解决严重流动性压力,或市场功能性压力。”

  他们补充称,银行业资本和流动性水平充足仍是全球金融稳定的重要支柱,尤其考虑到当前高杠杆率以及银行与非银行机构(涵盖保险公司、对冲基金和私人信贷等各类金融机构)之间日益加深的关联性。

  他们还呼吁全面及时落实2017年达成的旨在防范银行体系未来发生金融危机的最终改革方案,即巴塞尔协议III。

  美国八个州的财务官员联合致信特斯拉董事会,对该公司目前的发展方向以及马斯克对公司所面临挑战的关注度提出质疑。

  加利福尼亚、伊利诺伊和其他六个州负责监管基金和投资事务的官员提及特斯拉下跌的股价、不及预期的第一季度交付数据,以及用特斯拉换其他品牌汽车的车主数量激增等担忧。

  “与此同时,首席执行官马斯克仍在多家公司之间分散精力,还高调担任联邦政府顾问一职,”这些财务官员写道,“这些外部事务令人严重怀疑特斯拉领导层是否真正在全力应对公司的核心问题。”

  这封公开信是与倡导团体“负责任增长的美国人”(AmericansforResponsibleGrowth)合作起草的,进一步加剧了特斯拉及马斯克面临的舆论压力。该公司将于周二收盘后发布第一财季财报。

  加利福尼亚州的MaliaCohen、伊利诺伊州的MichaelFrerichs以及另外六位财务官员警告称如果特斯拉继续表现不佳,则将“波及地区经济”并动摇公众对能源转型的信心。

  尽管马斯克在2021年将特斯拉总部从硅谷搬到了奥斯汀,但加州仍然是该公司多个制造与工程设施的所在地。华盛顿、马萨诸塞、科罗拉多和康涅狄格等签署了这封信的财务官员所在州均采纳了加州推动电动车销售的相关标准。

  在致特斯拉董事会主席RobynDenholm的信中,上述财务官员要求董事会澄清如何确保马斯克及其领导团队“投入足够的时间和精力来解决近期的业绩问题”。几位州政府官员还就公司高管薪酬政策以及恢复投资者信心的举措提出质询。

  “董事会的作用在当下尤为关键——它需要发挥强有力的监督职能,坚持受托人责任标准,并确保领导层始终与公司的长期最佳利益保持一致,”财务官员写道,“作为公共事务官员,只有在风险显而易见且不容忽视时,我们才会慎重地提出这些担忧。”

  唐纳德・特朗普总统混乱的政策正促使一些投资者“抛售美国资产”,但先锋集团(VanguardGroup)首席执行官萨利姆・拉姆吉表示,他仍然相信美国经济的内在实力。

  在彭博社《华尔街周刊》即将播出的一期节目中,当被问及美国例外论是否已达到顶峰时,拉姆吉回答说:“绝对没有。”

  这一观点与日益形成的一种共识愈发相悖,这种共识认为美国投资长达数十年的主导地位即将结束。

  法国兴业银行资产配置主管阿兰・博科布扎曾在去年9月警告美国资产存在疲软迹象,并在今年2月重申了这一观点。他周二表示,如果特朗普发起多线贸易战,资金流出美国资产的情况可能会持续数年。

  以总回报率计算,标准普尔500指数(^GSPC)今年已下跌约10%。本月早些时候,由于特朗普在关税问题上的反复无常几乎重创了股票市场的各个板块,该指数曾短暂进入熊市区间。这种波动震撼了美国国债市场和美元,颠覆了这些资产作为传统避险资产的角色。

  拉姆吉表示,尽管在过去几周里投资者一直在抛售各类美国资产,但特朗普的贸易政策并不会标志着美国经济在金融领域主导地位的终结。

  拉姆吉所在的公司管理着超过10万亿美元的资产,他说:“我们在资金流动中肯定看到了这种情况,在客户的行为以及我们自己团队的投资理念中也看到了这种情况。”

  彭博社汇编的数据,截至2025年,先锋集团的交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)系列已吸纳了近1170亿美元资金,是所有ETF发行商中吸金最多的。其中,990亿美元流入了先锋集团专注于美国国内的股票和固定收益基金。不过,先锋集团仍在倡导投资多元化。

  拉姆吉称:“客户始终需要保持投资平衡。几十年来我们一直都这么说,包括在美国国内和国际投资之间找到合适的配比,以及在股票和债券之间找到合适的配比。”

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