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(来源:华安基金)

这几天黄金价格的上涨速度超出了所有人的预料,截至4月16日,COMEX金已经涨到了3300美元/盎司左右,再创历史新高,甚至相比上证指数也已略胜一筹。

数据来源:Wind,2023.4.17-2025.4.15,指数历史收益不代表未来走势,基金投资有风险。

此情此景,黄金还能上涨多少?短期还能参与吗?

黄金近期为何涨势迅猛?

首先,美元指数迅速回落。

特朗普上任后,贯彻了其弱美元的施政方针,美元指数从年初110的顶点,截至4月16日,已经回落到了99.67,跌破了100的大关。

而自布雷顿森林体系后,美元就与黄金建立了一定的负相关关系,即美元趋弱时,一定程度会助长金价,即便早在1971年,上述体系就已经崩溃,美元依旧对黄金会产生影响。

其次,做多黄金情绪强烈。

近期,因为特朗普阴晴不定的关税政策,全球资本市场都陷入了动荡,尤其是经济对外贸依赖较高的地区,股市更是上蹿下跳。

再加上美国内“再通胀”的袭扰,导致全球投资人都开始在恐慌情绪下寻找对冲资产,而黄金,作为除美元外的“硬通货”,且天然具有抗通胀的特性,便得到了资金的青睐。

总之,本轮黄金的上涨,特朗普的政策袭扰以及美国内的“再通胀”情绪,是主要的推动力。

黄金还能参与吗?

高盛、美银等机构分析称,短期内上述因素可能很难改变,黄金预计将继续维持上升态势,有的机构最高看好黄金价格涨至3700美元/盎司。

不过,因为特朗普态度的难以捉摸,不排除金价短期会有一定程度的回调,所以,控制住在情绪影响下产生的追高意识,逢低布局或者分批定投,可能是较为正确的“姿势”。

当然,与其它资产“搭配使用”,可能会有更意想不到的效果。

数据来源:Wind,2018.1.1-2025.4.15,指数历史收益不代表未来走势,基金投资有风险。

拉长时间看,黄金与以沪深300为代表的权益类资产,呈现出一定的负相关特性,如果我们在自己的资产组合中,维持一定比例的黄金资产,或有望丰富投资组合的收益来源,提升长期投资体验。

🧧喵言喵语

今日话题:你对金价后续怎么看?

评论区参与话题,小安将在评论区抽取三位送上6.66元红包~,截止4月17日12:00。

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! 新闻结尾 丝魅vip精选集,获取独特装备,提升你的游戏体验与战斗力!的相关文章
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