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手攀高耸的巨峰,对传统行业的冲击与影响

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  北京时间4月26日凌晨,美股周五午盘涨跌不一。特朗普总统表示希望一年后能维持20%至50%关税。美方声称“正就关税问题进行谈判”的言论再次遭到否认。投资者正权衡Alphabet等重要财报。

  道指跌157.38点,跌幅为0.39%,报39936.02点;纳指涨67.09点,涨幅为0.39%,报17233.13点;标普500指数涨5.11点,涨幅为0.09%,报5489.88点。

  周五之前,美股本周表现稳健。本周截止周四收盘,标普500指数与纳斯达克指数分别累计上涨3.8%和5.4%,道指攀升2%。

  但自4月2日特朗普宣布“对等关税”引发动荡后,美股始终维持宽幅震荡格局。投资者正等待美国与一些关键贸易伙伴的谈判进展。

  美国总统特朗普关于关税的最新表态增大了市场压力。特朗普表示,若一年后美国能对各国维持20%-50%的高关税,他将视为“彻底胜利”。

  特朗普同时否认国债收益率上升迫使他作出缓征90天关税的决定。他表示:“债券市场在恐慌,但我没有。”

  中国官方再次声明并未就关税议题进行任何形式的磋商或谈判。

  据新华社周四报道,中国商务部发言人何亚东否认存在任何贸易谈判,并要求取消“单边”关税。

  新华社周五报道称,外交部发言人郭嘉昆在例行记者会上再次对美方声称“中美正就关税问题进行谈判”的言论作出严正回应,称中美目前并未就关税议题进行任何形式的磋商或谈判,敦促美方不要混淆视听。

  此前白宫曾释放软化立场的信号——当前美国对中国输美商品征收总额高达145%的关税。周二,特朗普称关税将“大幅下降,但不会归零”。

  周五,特朗普在前往罗马参加教皇方济各葬礼之前表示,美国与日本“非常接近”达成贸易协议,他补充说,关税计划“进行地非常好”

  RobecoGroep多资产策略主管ColinGraham评论称:“特朗普已经开始退让,不再坚持‘交易的艺术’那一套。但我们知道他可能随时反悔并重新提供关税,所以目前这些消息更像是噪音,而非明确的信号。”

  瑞联银行外汇策略主管PeterKinsella表示:“美国的各种声明和消息相互矛盾,整个叙事根本就没头绪。这根本没法交易。”

  Moneyfarm首席投资官RichardFlax表示:“目前大家普遍认为,这种关税水平在长期来看是不可持续的,但要真正实现调整可能还需要一段时间,问题在于这些关税最终会稳定在哪个水平。”

  Ameriprise首席市场策略师安东尼-萨格林本(AnthonySaglimbene)表示:“市场只需要一点火花就能脱离低迷状态,预计美股仍将维持震荡,下周科技巨头财报将成为左右大盘走势的关键。”

  此外,特朗普表示,他“绝对”会签署一项禁止国会议员交易股票的法案,称他担心议员们可能利用内幕信息获得优势。“我对此没有意见,如果他们把法案送交给我,我会签署。”

  长期以来,两党一直支持立法限制国会议员买卖股票,因为他们能够接触到机密情报和有关立法进程的内部信息,使他们在市场上比其他人更具优势。2020年,一群两党参议员因在召开有关新冠疫情的闭门通报会后交易医疗保健股票而遭到批评。

  特朗普特别批评了前众议院议长南希-佩洛西,她在担任众议院议长期间一直反对立法禁止国会议员及其家属进行股票交易。佩洛西的丈夫保罗-佩洛西在旧金山地区通过房地产和风险投资积累了财富,批评者常常提到这对夫妇通过股票交易取得丰厚回报的案例。

  企业财报方面,谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度业绩超预期,股价大涨5%;而英特尔因发布悲观预期并宣布大幅削减运营与资本支出,股价重挫7%。

  市场还在关注美联储提前降息的可能性。美联储理事沃勒表示,如果特朗普政府激进的关税政策对就业市场造成冲击,他将支持降息。克利夫兰联储行长哈马克周四表示,如果能明确看到经济走向,美联储可能最早在6月调整利率。

  目前市场预计6月将降息25个基点,并在年底前共降息三次。美联储下次会议将于5月6日至7日举行。市场普遍预计,美联储届时将按兵不动。

  焦点个股

  谷歌母公司Alphabet第一财季总营收为902.34亿美元,与上年同期的805.39亿美元相比增长12%,不计入汇率变动的影响为同比增长14%;按照美国通用会计准则,Alphabet第一季度净利润为345.40亿美元,与上年同期的236.62亿美相比增长46%;每股摊薄收益为2.81美元,与上年同期的1.89美元相比实现增长。

  英特尔第一财季营收126.7亿美元,预估123.1亿美元;净亏损8亿美元,每股亏损0.19美元,预估亏损0.22美元;第二财季业绩指引低于预期。

  T-Mobile第一财季营收同比增长6.6%至208.9亿美元,净利润同比增长24%至30亿美元,新增49.5万客户逊预期。

  吉利德科学第一财季营收为67亿美元,净利润为13.15亿美元,扭亏为盈;维持年度业绩预测。

  消息称苹果计划最早于明年将所有在美国销售的iPhone的组装业务转移到印度。

  亚马逊和英伟达高管称人工智能数据中心需求并未放缓,未来几年及长期仍是上升趋势。摩根士丹利将英伟达的目标股价由162美元下调至160美元。

  消息称MetaPlatforms正对其VR和可穿戴设备部门RealityLabs裁员100多人。

  英特尔即将量产的最尖端制程工艺Intel18A将获英伟达、博通等ASIC厂商的代工订单。该公司还发布悲观预期并宣布大幅削减运营与资本支出。罗森布拉特证券将英特尔目标价从18美元下调至14美元。

  印度航空(AirIndia)正与波音洽谈购买约10架737MAX飞机,此前这批飞机遭中国拒收。

  默克集团正就收购生物制药公司SpringWorks进行后期谈判,估值约为35亿美元。

  百度发布文心大模型4.5Turbo及X1Turbo,具备多模态、强推理及低成本三大特质。

  阿里国际站开启“海外现货”招商,招募在美国和欧洲有现货的外贸商家。

  小马智行与腾讯云将围绕L4级自动驾驶研发和Robotaxi服务落地开展战略合作。

  要点

  艾伯维第一季度的销售额和调整后每股收益超出了预期。

  这家制药商将其全年调整后每股收益预期上调了10美分。

  然而,该公司指出,其业务可能会受到特朗普总统表示计划对该行业征收的关税的影响。

  艾伯维(ABBV)周五公布的第一季度业绩超出了分析师的预期,并上调了其全年盈利指引。

  这家制药商的调整后每股收益(EPS)为2.46美元,营收同比增长8%,达到133.4亿美元。VisibleAlpha调查的分析师此前预期分别为2.40美元和129.2亿美元。

  瑞莎珠单抗(Skyrizi)和乌帕替尼(Rinvoq)的销售额分别飙升了超过70%和57%,但修美乐(Humira)的销售额下降了一半。这三种免疫药物在第一季度的合计营收为62.6亿美元,几乎占艾伯维第一季度营收的一半。

  艾伯维上调全年盈利预期

  艾伯维将其全年调整后每股收益盈利预期从此前的11.99美元至12.19美元,上调至12.09美元至12.29美元的区间。该公司表示,其目前的预期“基于现有的贸易环境,并未反映出任何可能影响艾伯维业务的贸易政策变化,包括对制药行业征收的关税”。

  特朗普总统曾表示,他计划对制药行业征收关税,该行业此前在本月早些时候宣布的第一轮关税中获得了豁免。

  艾伯维的股价在今年开盘时已上涨了1.5%,在周五下午早些时候又上涨了近3%。

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