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  俄罗斯总统普京已下令政府针对考虑在俄投资的企业制定新的法律框架。这是迄今为止显示莫斯科在为有朝一日制裁解除、部分投资重返进行筹备的最明确信号。

  但一名克里姆林宫官员表示,“暂且还没人敲门”。这一表态也凸显了在美国总统特朗普推动俄乌停战协议的背景下,一些企业恢复在俄运营的举措尚处于初步阶段,其中一些企业从未完全撤离。

  彭博采访了有俄罗斯市场经验的律师、银行家和风险分析师,最近几周客户与他们接触,希望了解自2022年以来风险回报发生翻天覆地的变化后,接下来会发生什么。其中一位接受采访者暗示,一些企业已经在进行“情景规划”。

  “他们都在进行尽职调查,”专注于俄罗斯的战略咨询公司MacroAdvisory的负责人ChrisWeafer表示。该公司已收到数十个咨询请求。“它们都在评估选项。自特朗普就任以来,对俄罗斯的关注度显著增强。”

  不过,Weafer补充称,大多数公司不会在永久和平协议达成前考虑回归俄罗斯。“没人想太早回归,之后又不得不再次退出,”他说。

  普京于3月将制定框架的任务交给政府,财政部已起草了一些初步提案。据两位不愿透露姓名的政府官员透露,这些提案包括要求外国公司将部分生产本地化,并同意技术转让以提升产能。他们还表示,在是否允许外国企业重返某些市场领域方面,俄罗斯企业也将有一定的话语权。

  俄罗斯国家杜马金融市场委员会主席AnatolyAksakov在莫斯科接受采访时表示,尽管“所有希望来俄罗斯投资的新投资者都将获得最优惠的经营条件”,但那些先前离开俄罗斯,现在希望以低价重新获得原有业务的公司,则必须为资产支付全额市场价格。

  普京今年3月明确表示,那些在入侵开始后撤离,并以他所称的“抛售价格”出售俄罗斯子公司的西方企业,不应被允许以低价重新获得资产。他的言论再次引发了人们对一些公司在撤离时签署的回购条款价值的质疑。

  韩国LG电子俄罗斯代表向俄罗斯新闻社表示,在看到“冲突可能结束的迹象”后,该公司对自战争开始以来暂停运营的俄罗斯工厂进行了尝试性的重启。该公司俄罗斯分部未回应彭博的置评请求。

  对于其他企业而言,情况可能更为复杂。麦当劳于1990年在莫斯科开业时,曾被视为冷战结束后俄罗斯与西方开启合作新时代的象征。该公司在战争开始后不久,将其餐厅出售给现有特许经营者AlexanderGovor,协议包含回购条款。如今麦当劳要想重返俄罗斯,可能有难度。

  这家快餐连锁店现名为“VkusnoiTochka”,根据俄罗斯的财务披露,其去年以卢布计算的收入较战前水平翻了一番多,达到1870亿卢布(23亿美元)。麦当劳拒绝表明是否会考虑重返俄罗斯。

莫斯科一家原麦当劳餐厅,现为快餐连锁VkusnoiTochka

  普京的经济关系特使KirillDmitriev 4月在莫斯科与美国商会成员会面,他表示此次会议有超过150家仍在俄罗斯运营的美国企业参加。

  《零和游戏》(ZeroSum)一书作者CharlesHecker表示,与20世纪90年代和21世纪初“天文数字“般的利润相比,“风险回报等式已经发生改变”,“现在我认为,没有哪家公司预计会像过去几十年那样发现‘金矿’。”

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