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3月份,全国单月水泥产量1.58亿吨,同比增长2.5%,表现好于预期;1-3月,全国累计水泥产量同比下降1.4%,降幅较1-2月收窄4.3个百分点。结合数字水泥网监测的反映市场实际需求指标--水泥出货率情况来看,3月份全国水泥平均出货率环比提升约26个百分点,同比提升约8个百分点。全国水泥市场需求显现季节性修复特征,且复苏节奏优于去年同期,但受资金不足及低温天气扰动,行业复苏动能仍显不足,整体需求仍然偏弱运行。

宏观层面,全国固定资产和基础设施投资增速较1-2月略有提升。基础设施投资中,铁路运输业投资同比微增,水利管理业投资高速增长,道路运输业投资同比略有下降。房地产市场仍处于调整阶段,全国房地产开发投资、房地产开发企业房屋新开工面积仍然呈现深度下降,但房地产开发企业到位资金同比降幅大幅收窄,中央政府加力推动房地产止跌企稳,地产端水泥需求下降趋势有望逐步减缓。

一、全国累计水泥产量同比降幅收窄

国家统计局数据显示,2025年1-3月,全国累计水泥产量3.31亿吨,同比下降1.4%,降幅较1-2月收窄4.3个百分点,较去年同期收窄10.4个百分点,产量为2010年以来同期次低水平。3月份,全国单月水泥产量1.58亿吨,同比增长2.5%,产量为近五年同期次低水平。

3月份,全国水泥市场需求显现季节性修复特征,全国水泥平均出货率环比提升约26个百分点,同比提升约8个百分点,复苏节奏优于去年同期。但受资金不足及低温天气扰动,行业复苏动能仍显不足,整体需求仍然偏弱,与2021-2023年同期相比出货率下降约1-2成。

二、固定资产和基础设施投资增速略有提升

2025年1-3月,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)10.32万亿元,同比增长4.2%,增速较1-2月加快0.1个百分点,低于去年同期0.3个百分点。从单月投资来看,3月份固定资产投资(不含农户)环比增长0.15%。

2025年1-3月,全国基础设施投资(不含电力)同比增长5.8%,增速较1-2月加快0.2个百分点,低于去年同期0.7个百分点。其中,铁路运输业投资同比增长0.5%,水利管理业投资同比增长36.8%,道路运输业投资同比下降0.2%。

分地区看,东部地区投资同比增长2.2%,中部地区投资同比增长5.5%,西部地区投资同比增长6.2%,东北地区投资同比增长9.7%。

宏观层面,全国固定资产和基础设施投资增速较1-2月略有提升,但低于去年同期水平。基础设施投资中,铁路运输业投资同比微增,增速较1-2月略有提升;水利管理业投资保持高速增长,增速较1-2月小幅下滑;道路运输业投资同比略有下降,降幅较1-2月收窄。

基建资金支持力度加大,随着天气回暖施工旺季来临,推动实物工作量形成,基建领域水泥需求有望维持稳健增长。

三、房地产开发投资同比继续下降

2025年1-3月,全国房地产开发投资1.99万亿元,同比下降9.9%,降幅较1-2月扩大0.1个百分点,较去年同期扩大0.4个百分点。其中,住宅投资1.51万亿元,同比下降9%。

2025年1-3月,房地产开发企业房屋施工面积61.37亿平方米,同比下降9.5%;房屋新开工面积1.3亿平方米,同比下降24.4%。其中,住宅新开工面积下降23.9%。

2025年1-3月,房地产开发企业到位资金2.47万亿元,同比下降3.7%。

1-3月,房地产行业处于去库存阶段,土地交易规模保持低位,企业对新开工项目保持审慎,投资和施工端仍位于收缩调整周期。全国房地产开发投资、房地产开发企业房屋施工面积和新开工面积继续呈现深度下降,其中房地产开发投资、施工面积降幅较1-2月略有扩大。房地产开发企业到位资金同比小幅下降,但降幅较去年同期大幅收窄。

2025年3月,国务院办公厅发布提振消费专项行动方案,持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳,提出更好满足住房消费需求,促进相关税费、公积金政策优化,且兼顾供给侧与降库存,要求加力实施城中村和危旧房改造,允许专项债券支持城市政府收购存量商品房用作保障性住房。金融监管总局也印发通知,将加大个人消费贷款投放力度。得益于消费端的金融和税费支持,以及加大库存处置、减少土地供应对供求预期的改善,房地产销售端继续改善,但库存仍处于逐步消化阶段,预计短期内房地产端水泥需求仍将维持弱势。

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