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重启之极海听雷第二部:情欲表达的独特视角
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  据报道,知情人士称,俄罗斯总统普京已提议在目前的前线停止对乌克兰的进攻,作为与特朗普达成和平协议努力的一部分。

  其中三名知情人士说,普京本月早些时候告诉特朗普特使,莫斯科可以放弃对乌克兰四个部分被占领地区的主权要求,这些地区仍在基辅的控制之下。美国此后提出了可能的解决方案,其中包括华盛顿承认俄罗斯对克里米亚半岛的所有权,以及至少承认俄罗斯对其目前控制的四个地区的部分地区的实际控制。

  这是自三年前冲突爆发以来,普京首次正式表示,俄罗斯可能会放弃其军事行动的最高要求。但欧洲官员警告称,普京可能会利用这一明显让步作为诱饵,诱使特朗普接受俄罗斯的其他要求,并将这些要求作为既成事实强加给乌克兰。其中一人表示:“基辅目前面临很大压力,要求它放弃一些事情,这样特朗普就可以宣布胜利。”

  来源:华尔街见闻

  在特朗普政府引爆关税战的第一季度,特斯拉的盈利和收入双双远逊华尔街预期,受主营业务汽车拖累。

  特斯拉将业绩下滑“甩锅”给政府贸易政策的“不确定性”,未提CEO马斯克“入阁”带来的冲击,财报中,未像上个季度那样预计今年汽车交付将在去年下滑后重回增长,而是表示二季度财报将更新今年的指引。

  不过,特斯拉一季度也有亮点,储能业务增长仍强劲,部署储能装机量保持三位数增长,且预计储能需求会增加。特斯拉还重申了包括低价车在内的上半年生产新车计划。

  财报公布后,盘后涨超1%的特斯拉股价迅速转跌,一度跌超1%,后转涨。随着盘后美国总统特朗普表示,没打算罢免美联储主席鲍威尔,美股指期货普涨,特斯拉股价的盘后涨幅扩大到3%以上。

  美东时间4月22日周二美股盘后,特斯拉公布2025年第一季度财务业绩。

  1)主要财务数据

  一季度营收不增反降9%EPS较预期低逾60%汽车收入降20%

  财报显示,一季度特斯拉的营收录得2020年一季度以来首次同比下降,较分析师预期的总营收低9.5%。换言之,分析师预计一季度本应同比略有增长。

  一季度特斯拉EPS盈利也远低于预期,较分析师预期水平低60.5%。分析师预计EPS同比下降4.4%,而特斯拉公布的EPS下降了40%。

  一季度GAAP口径下、即调整前的特斯拉净利润为4.09亿美元,同比降幅71%,远超调整后的降幅39%。

  一季度特斯拉的营收下滑源于汽车业务当季收入下降20%,降至2021年第三季度以来最低谷。如果剔除来自监管信贷积分的“卖碳”收入5.95亿美元,特斯拉一季度纯靠卖车的收入还要更低,不过,汽车业务的毛利率下滑程度没有分析师预期的严重。

  特斯拉称,一季度销售下滑源于,部分源于公司旗下所有四家汽车生产厂的ModelY车型生产线升级,汽车交付量减少;汽车降价及销售补贴;美元贬值的负面外汇汇率影响2亿美元。

  事实上,除了ModelY产线升级,一季度马斯克连累特斯拉遭抵制的影响也不容忽视。

  上月华尔街见闻不止一次提到,自特朗普上任以来,针对特斯拉的暴力和破坏行为频发,充电站被烧、展厅被枪击、车主被羞辱,还爆发了席卷全球的“打倒特斯拉”抗议行动,矛头直指马斯克。受此影响,特斯拉在欧洲多国销售两位数剧减。分析师警告,特斯拉政治化对品牌构成严重威胁。

  本月初特斯拉公布的一季度交付量也部分印证了马斯克“参政”的破坏性。当季交付量同比下降13%至33.6681万辆,创将近两年来新低,较分析师预期水平低近14%。

  一季度特斯拉的储能业务收入较四季度增长放缓,但两位数的增速部分抵消了汽车收入的下滑,让公司总营收的降幅没有超过10%。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

  ●本报记者欧阳剑环

  今年我国首次实施“更加积极的财政政策”。截至目前,支出强度加大、支出进度加快是今年财政政策实施的鲜明特点。接下来,包括超长期特别国债、新增专项债在内的政府债券将加快发行,有力拉动国内需求,推动经济回升向好。中央财政还有充足的空间应对可能出现的冲击和挑战。

  财政政策靠前发力,首先体现在年初便为“两新”“两重”备足资金,包括预下达2025年消费品以旧换新首批资金810亿元、已安排超2300亿元超长期特别国债资金支持“两重”建设。

  此外,财政支出明显前置。最新公布的财政收支数据显示,一季度全国一般公共预算支出同比增长4.2%,增幅较1-2月提高0.8个百分点,全国政府性基金预算支出同比增长11.1%,显示财政支出加快。在收入端,3月全国一般公共预算收入增幅由负转正,税收收入中的国内增值税、国内消费税等主体税种有所回升,反映出前期稳增长政策显效,也与近期发布的经济数据相印证。

  财政支出靠前发力背后,是政府债前置发行充实了可用的财政资金。一季度,国债净融资额为1.47万亿元,较去年同期增加近1万亿元;地方债发行同样大幅前置,一季度各地发行地方债2.84万亿元,其中用于置换存量债务的再融资专项债占比过半,新增专项债发行9602.41亿元,较去年同期多发逾3000亿元。政府债务规模扩张也意味着政府支出增多,从而通过支出乘数效应增加总需求。

  接下来,政府债发行有望继续“赶进度”。作为积极财政政策发力的重要工具,2025年超长期特别国债将于4月24日开闸发行。按照有关安排,今年超长期特别国债将集中在4月至10月发行,与去年集中在5月至11月发行相比,整体发行时间提前约1个月。随着超长期特别国债有序发行,其重点支持的“两新”“两重”政策将继续落地显效,加速释放消费需求和国内投资。

  地方债方面,在一季度再融资专项债加快发行后,新增专项债发行将逐渐放量。据机构统计,截至4月17日,各省、计划单列市已披露的地方债计划发行额共计2.24万亿元,其中新增专项债占比约一半。叠加专项债管理机制优化,部分省市“自审自发”试点推进,新增专项债发行有望尽快形成实物工作量,带动基建投资增长。

  往后看,面对外部因素带来的新变化,业内人士普遍认为,全方位扩大内需是关键之举。为此,财政政策应保持支出强度,进一步加大支出力度。在今年已明确上调赤字率、安排更大规模政府债券的基础上,加快各项资金下达拨付,尽快形成实际支出,同时,在支出结构上应注重向消费领域倾斜。

  过去两年,财政政策根据形势变化均在当年四季度推出增量举措,包括2023年增发1万亿元国债,2024年推出化债“组合拳”。有专家认为,按照相关安排,今年最后一期超长期特别国债将于10月发行,这或许意味着为更多增量政策预留了充足空间。

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