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  懂酒谛

  作者︱余在洋

  2023年,茅台镇一家名为国沙酒业的公司,出产了一款名为“2023个人私藏酒”的酱香型白酒。如下图:

  结果在产品面市后,不仅业内酒商一眼看出,这是在模仿吴向东旗下的珍酒搞的光瓶年份酒——2013,无论是酒标还是酒瓶,几乎让人一眼乱真。

  下面这个产品,才是吴向东旗下珍酒出品的正牌产品。大家看看,上面那款国沙的酒,是不是跟它有很多地方相仿?

  国沙的酒不仅抄袭和模仿了珍酒,这还不算,更有人从它的公司名上看出了玄机——国沙酒业,难道是另外两大酱香型白酒婚外情搞出的私生子?感觉鬼鬼祟祟的!

  看到国沙的产品后,有位浸淫酒业多年的酒商说:“学得一模一样,茅台镇,我真是服了!”

  从上面这位酒商的口气中不难看出,在他心里,大抵已经给“茅台镇”这几个字,贴上了“自轻自贱”的标签。也难怪有人曾经这样对茅台和茅台镇做出定义:茅台还是那个茅台,茅台镇也还是那个茅台镇。

  原来,茅台和茅台镇本身早就格格不入了啊。

  如果只是模仿和仿冒别家的产品,最多也就是让消费者对“镇酒”的反感加剧,还不至于让茅台镇的信用塌方。

  但今年另外一位到茅台镇去买酒的客商,他用自己的亲身经历验证了:茅台镇,正走在信用塌方的路上。

  这位客商,在茅台镇究竟经历了什么,才会让大家对茅台镇发出“水深堂子野”、“一当一当又一当,当当都一样”这样的感叹?

  茅台镇的塌方绝非一日之功,但肯定是来自于一颗颗能坏掉整锅汤的老鼠屎。不知道当地的市场监管部门,对此作何看法?

  这位客商,有一天在群里发牢骚说:哪天得给大家讲一个我在茅台镇的故事,以为找了这么多熟人,能躲过一劫,结果都是待宰羔羊。

  在他抛出这个引子后,很快就引起了群里酒商们的关心,有酒商问他说:“要不要公布一下这家酒厂的名字?能救一个是一个!”

  还有人可能是在之前提醒过这位客商,在得知他上当的经历后,发出了“不听老人言,吃亏在眼前”的慨叹。

  之前问要不要公布酒企名字的那位酒商,又给出了一个让茅台镇人不忍直视的结论——“不敢推荐茅台镇的任何一家酒企,简直不敢!”

  很显然,上面这位到茅台镇去买酒的客商,在茅台镇上当受骗了。那他到底经历了什么呢?

  根据这位客商介绍,在看到散酒市场兴起的趋势后,他们就准备到茅台镇去订一些散酒售卖。今年3月份去采购之前,也曾经找熟人给酒厂老板打了招呼,希望能在酒质上得到保证。

  没想到,货发回来之后,等铺到了店里,顾客却反馈说:这酒质不咋地啊!随后,客商拿之前的酒样一对比,发现根本就不是一个味儿,发来的货明显要比酒样低了不少。

  后来,客商经过了解才知道,虽然朋友已经跟酒厂老板打过招呼,要他进行关照,但是老板家公子在发货的时候,因为客商确定的那个酒样没货了,所以就换了别的酒。

  这件事给这位客商造成的损失至少有三种:一是客户流失,二是遭到投资人质疑,三是把酒收回来又要有一大笔成本,四是导致自身信誉受损——有些事,已经无法用金钱来衡量了。

  这位客商说:我们本来是要跟这家酒厂有一个长期订单的,因为是第一次涉足散酒生意,所以只订了一吨——也幸亏只订了一吨,否则还不知道要造成多大损失呢!

  看来,茅台镇,已经让酒商们很受伤。

  上面的事件,虽然这位客商是拿它在当故事讲,但是对茅台镇来说,这绝对属于事故级别的存在了。

  也难怪早几年业内就流传着这样一句话:茅台带个镇,买酒须谨慎!

  原来,在这背后还真存在着这样一种逻辑啊——你拿茅台镇当茅台,茅台镇却拿你当傻X!

  类似上面的事件,在业内听到的不止一两桩,如果茅台镇官方不出来管管,那茅台镇还真是要行走在信用塌方的路上了!

  来源:证券市场周刊市场号

  今年以来,A股市场波动剧烈,截至本周四收盘沪指收跌-2.13%,区间最大回撤11.58%,投资者的赚钱难度较大,知名投资者葛卫东也不例外,以其去年四季度末的7只重仓股至今的市场表现来看,2只跑赢市场,5只跑输。

  不过,从相关动态来看,葛卫东对后市仍较为乐观,继续坚守绩优主线,其旗下混沌投资最新又关注了多只绩优个股。那么,葛卫东的重仓股和关注股都有谁呢?

  最新重仓7股

  进入上市公司2024年报和2025年一季报披露密集期,其前十大股东/流通股股东期间的调仓情况也浮出水面,“超级牛散”葛卫东(未剔除重名,下同)即频频现身多只绩优股。

  如臻镭科技,公司专注于集成电路芯片和微系统,在去年公司实现盈利1784.96万元,只不过盈利有所下滑。而截至去年年底,葛卫东和关联人王萍即同时现身公司的前十大流通股股东名单,且分别以412.19万股和349.08万股的持股数量完成了新进重仓。对此,本公众号曾发表《葛卫东新进重仓!空间万亿美元!这个赛道正迎黄金发展期》一文。

  葛卫东旗下的混沌投资则继续重仓海光信息,持股数量相较上期小幅减少。据悉,海光信息去年实现盈利19.31亿元,同比增长52.87%。

  此外,葛卫东和王萍还联合新进重仓了一家卫星公司,该公司是中国航天科技集团从事卫星运营服务业的核心专业子公司,主营业务为卫星空间段运营及相关应用服务。在报告期内,公司实现盈利4.54亿元,同比增长30.31%(葛卫东最新重仓名单详见表1,识别二维码“加入学习”免费领取)。

  综合来看,葛卫东及其关联人重仓的这7只个股在去年均实现了盈利,其中除臻镭科技外都实现盈利同比增长。对此,混沌投资曾指出,增长是永远的主题。“公司所处的赛道是否能持续成长,是否有足够大的空间,是投资的首要问题。确定赛道以后,我们着重分析公司在赛道中所处的位置和竞争优势。”

  不过,从市场表现来看,葛卫东及其关联人重仓的这7只个股今年以来表现整体一般。其中,除臻镭科技和海光信息两只个股年内收涨且跑赢沪指外,其余5只个股同期均收跌且跑输沪指。据悉,臻镭科技和海光信息年内涨幅分别为25.74%和2.81%。

  这个领域会有大牛股

  混沌投资曾表示,其投资领域涵盖A股、港股、美股等,聚焦于TMT、先进制造、医药、新兴消费等行业。而葛卫东及其关联人最新重仓的这7只个股就是围绕这些方向展开的,尤其是先进制造行业的集大成者——国防军工领域,有3只个股都属于这个领域。如葛卫东和王萍联合新进重仓的卫星公司,该公司是中国唯一拥有自主可控商用通信广播卫星资源的基础电信运营企业,被工信部列为国家一类应急通信专业保障队伍,是国家行业主管部门直接指挥调度的保障力量。

  那么,葛卫东及其关联人为什么集中重仓了国防军工领域呢?

  从外部环境看,近年来包括美国“关税战”等在内的不确定性正在增多,而国防力量是维护国家安全的重要体现。

  从内部环境看,国防军工领域的上市公司基本面情况也强于其他多个领域,如目前已发布2024年报或快报的相关公司共有78家,其中有53家实现盈利,接近一半的公司实现了盈利同比增长。

  而对于国防军工领域,本栏目特约嘉宾边惠宗今年以来已经多次强调,他指出,“十四五”补量逻辑能保证今年业绩的双击,而主题驱动方面,低空、商业航海、深海科技等都算新质生产力范畴,会反复炒。

  边惠宗同时指出,“大军工,基本上是屏蔽加税的少数避风港行业,主要是内需,至于军贸,加税加大地缘不确定性,所以也利好军贸。”在边惠宗看来,军工会出大牛股。那么,谁具备走牛的潜力呢?扫描下方二维码了解。

  两股翻倍增长

  今年4月以来,葛卫东及其关联人继续寻找新的标的,已参与调研公司家数近30家,其多属于电子、计算机、军工等领域,且业绩增长强劲。

  如混沌投资4月11日调研的中微半导,公司是集成电路(IC)设计企业,受益于各类产品出货量持续增加,公司2024年实现盈利1.37亿元,同比增长723.43%。对于2025年业绩展望,公司表示,“公司管理层希望2025年的营收增长保持甚至超过2024年增长速度。”

  混沌投资4月10日调研的莱特光电,公司主营OLED材料,报告期内实现盈利1.67亿元,同比增长117.17%,业绩增速同样翻倍,这也是目前葛卫东及其关联人调研的唯二业绩翻倍增长的公司。

  此外,葛卫东及其关联人参与调研的风华高科、九号公司等多家公司,同样业绩增速居前(见表2)。

  据报道,BlueWhaleGrowth的基金经理StephenYiu在接受采访时称,4月2日特朗普宣布对等关税后,该投资基金出售了所持全部Meta股票。

  科技股约占其投资组合的40%;Meta的配置比例约为3%。

  亿万富翁PeterHargreaves支持的该投资基金由于担心微软在人工智能上投入大量资金,也清空了微软股票。

  过去几周一直在利用价格下跌的机会买入英伟达,该股在整个投资组合中的持仓比例从2024年底的7%提高到了10%。

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