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亲爱的投资者朋友们:

  近期的市场波动难免牵动人心。作为基金经理,我深知此刻的每一份信任都弥足珍贵,也理解短期净值波动带来的焦虑。但投资如同耕种,需以耐心浇灌,方能收获时间的馈赠。在此,我想与您分享我们对市场的思考与坚守的信念。

  央国企龙头的时代命题

  近期,市场风险偏好下降,价值板块再度被市场所关注。作为深度价值的投资者,当前,我们看好顺周期、促内需的央国企龙头,这一偏好根植于两大时代命题:

  其一,内循环战略的纵深推进。全球贸易壁垒高筑之际,中国正加速向内需驱动转型。从能源保供到基建托底,从消费升级到高端制造,央国企作为“国之重器”,在关键领域承担着不可替代的使命。这既需要企业承担社会责任,也为其打开了盈利增长的制度性窗口。

  其二,国企改革进入深水区。随着市值考核纳入央企负责人绩效评价体系,企业从追求规模扩张转向提升资产回报,从“大而不强”转向“强而高效”。这种从量变到质变的跨越,或将逐步在财务报表与市值表现中兑现。

  我们深知,转型不会一蹴而就,价值亦非朝夕之功。但历史的经验告诉我们,那些在行业低谷期仍坚持技术投入、管理优化的企业,往往能在周期回暖时展现出更强的爆发力。

  在不确定中寻找确定

  面对市场波动,我们始终以三重标尺丈量价值、挖掘价值:

  根基之稳:关注现金流充沛、资产负债表健康的龙头企业,这类企业或更具备穿越周期的抗风险能力;

  变革之机:关注通过混改激励、数字化转型、绿色技术应用实现效率跃升的企业,这些变量可能成为估值重塑的催化剂;

  回报之实:重视分红率与股息率的可持续性,在低利率时代,稳定的现金流回报本身就是抵御波动的“压舱石”。

  当前,建筑、银行、能源等板块的估值仍处历史低位,部分企业的市净率(PB)甚至低于净资产重置成本。这种“价格低于价值”的背离,需要投资者以慧眼与定力去发掘。

  在我们的投资框架中,我们更专注于把握产业趋势,对企业基本面抽丝剥茧,而非追逐短期热点,在市场噪音中闪转腾挪。我们相信,真正的价值,只会随着时间沉淀而愈发清晰。

  春种一粒粟,秋收万颗子。中国经济基本面仍具长期韧性,阶段性回调反而为我们提供了低位播种的良机。如果您也是价值投资的坚守者,不妨多点耐心,与我们一起,以“种树者”的胸怀静待花开——因为投资最美的风景,从来不在疾行之路,而在坚守之途。

  长城国企优选混合基金经理 储雯玉

  2025年4月15日

  免责声明:

  本通讯所载信息来源于本公司认为可靠的渠道和研究员个人判断,但本公司不对其准确性或完整性提供直接或隐含的声明或保证。此通讯并非对相关证券或市场的完整表述或概括,任何所表达的意见可能会更改且不另外通知。此通讯不应被接受者作为对其独立判断的替代或投资决策依据。本公司或本公司的相关机构、雇员或代理人不对任何人使用此全部或部分内容的行为或由此而引致的任何损失承担任何责任。未经长城基金管理有限公司事先书面许可,任何人不得将此报告或其任何部分以任何形式进行派发、复制、转载或发布,且不得对本通讯进行任何有悖原意的删节或修改。基金管理人提醒,每个公民都有举报洗钱犯罪的义务和权利。每个公民都应严格遵守反洗钱的相关法律、法规。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。

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