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叶川的夏天|那些让你欲罢不能的浪漫瞬间
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叶川的夏天|那些让你欲罢不能的浪漫瞬间

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  周四,华尔街的“抛售美国资产”交易出现动摇,美国股市在贸易紧张局势缓解引发的三日连涨中大幅上扬。不过,特朗普政府发出的矛盾信息抑制了投资者的热情,也让市场对任何潜在交易的持久性感到紧张不安。

  本周早些时候,投资者纷纷抛售美国股票和传统避险资产,10年期美国国债收益率飙升至4.4%以上,美元跌至2022年以来的最低水平。

  这种不同寻常的举动,即同时抛售风险资产和波动性对冲资产,被视为一种罕见的市场错位,策略师们将其称为声名狼藉的“抛售美国资产”交易。但随着投资者重新买入美国债券和美元,这些趋势本周开始出现逆转。

  周三,10年期国债收益率降至4.3%左右,美元也接近具有心理重要意义的100关口。与此同时,黄金在近几天创下多项纪录后,于周三回落至每盎司3290美元左右。此前,投资者纷纷涌入以非美元计价的全球公认价值储存资产,而黄金价格的回落进一步表明“抛售美国资产”交易正在降温。

  但在周四的交易中,黄金价格再次飙升至每盎司3340美元左右,与此同时美元也失去了上涨动力。与这一趋势相悖的是10年期美国国债收益率,该收益率在周三晚些时候曾反弹上升,但在周四又回落至4.3%左右的水平。

  除了看起来较为有利的贸易发展动态之外,特朗普决定放弃罢免美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔的尝试,这也有助于缓解投资者的担忧。

  自本月早些时候总统宣布“解放日”以来,投资者一直在应对一个动荡的市场,多种经济冲击加剧了市场的波动,这些冲击包括关裞、经济增长放缓以及地缘政治紧张局势升级。

  但总统已经暗示他一直在关注外界的声音,这使得一些策略师认为,他现在可能比以往更关注市场对其政策的反应。此前,特朗普政府曾声称,在近期的股市抛售期间,他们并未关注股市动态。

  特鲁斯金融公司(Truist)联席首席投资官兼首席市场策略师基思・勒纳对雅虎财经表示:“人们更加关注市场波动性,尤其是10年期国债收益率,而不仅仅是股市。我认为,特朗普对于10年期国债收益率升至多高或跌至多低会感到满意,心里也是有个底线的。”

  “持续努力”以重建市场稳定

  通常情况下,当股票和债券同向波动时,是因为通胀飙升推动美元走高。然而,这一次,信心危机似乎扰乱了这种惯常的市场动态。

  总统团队的关键成员,包括财政部长斯科特・贝森特,都试图缓解投资者的担忧。

  贝森特在周三的一次演讲中谈到关裞问题时表示:“我想明确一点,‘美国优先’并不意味着美国孤立。相反,这是呼吁贸易伙伴之间进行更深入的合作和相互尊重。”

  贝森特强调了在近期市场波动中维持美元稳定的重要性,他说:“在我的有生之年,美元仍将是世界储备货币。”

  荷兰国际集团(ING)的外汇策略师弗朗西斯科・佩索莱告诉雅虎财经,白宫最初预计关裞会使美元走强,这样可以保护美国消费者免受物价上涨的影响。然而,信心下降却引发了美元抛售。

  佩索莱表示,这很可能“不是贝森特希望看到的情况”。“我认为,目前正在持续努力,至少要在美国首次受到通胀冲击的这段时间内,重建美元的一定稳定性。”

  随着投资者继续消化瞬息万变的新闻头条,一些策略师警告称,未来市场可能还会出现更多波动。

  泰玛蒂卡研究公司(TematicaResearch)首席投资官克里斯・弗萨奇周三表示:“我认为这是一次‘松口气’式的反弹。人们非常担心(关裞)带来的影响,担心经济受到的影响,以及未来几周我们将看到的盈利预期受到的影响。所以对我来说,这更像是一次‘松口气’式的反弹。”

  但他也警告说:“影响仍然会存在。我认为我们必须耐心等待,看看这新一轮潜在关裞的具体走向。我们还得拭目以待。”

专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

  在美元和美债因唐纳德·特朗普的关税与政策波动遭遇抛售之际,英国央行行长AndrewBailey称对美元失去储备货币地位的担忧“过头”。

  在美国在全球经济中的主导地位受到威胁的警告声中,Bailey周四表示,“需要巨大的转变才能改变储备货币地位的格局”。

  “我认为很多关于储备货币地位的讨论都过头了,”Bailey在国际货币基金组织(IMF)与世界银行春季会议期间接受采访时表示。

  “市场的许多结构都是围绕这一点构建的,”他说。“这不仅是货币的面值问题。还涉及作为抵押品的安全资产,例如美国国债。”

  Bailey此番言论正值市场对特朗普政府试图重塑世界经济秩序可能削弱美元长期主导地位的担忧升温。美元在本周早些时候跌至16个月低点,彭博美元即期指数4月以来下跌近4%,迈向两年多来的最差月度表现。

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