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色老师的猥琐人生,究竟有何因果?记忆中的每一次碰撞都让
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色老师的猥琐人生,究竟有何因果?记忆中的每一次碰撞都让

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1.最近拟披露财报发布日

腾讯控股(

00700.HK)将于2025年5月14日公布2025年一季报。

2. 腾讯控股一季度业绩预期怎么样?

截至2025年04月15日,根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据:

预测营业收入1737.87~1774.06亿元,同比增长9.0%~11.2%;预测净利润508.67~548.96亿元,同比增长21.4%~31.1%;预测经调整净利润558.22~630.00亿元,同比增长11.1%~25.3%。

关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期,朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。

3. 腾讯控股最新卖方观点

国海证券认为:腾讯控股2024Q4财报显示,公司营收和利润均实现增长,其中营收1724亿元,同比增长11%,营业利润515亿元,同比增长24%,归母净利润513亿元,同比增长90%。微信流量健康增长,月活跃用户数达13.85亿。核心业务增长态势良好,毛利率同比提升,Non-IFRS经营利润和归母净利润分别同比增长21%和30%。游戏业务收入同比增长20%,

腾讯视频付费会员数略有下滑,TME音乐付费会员数同比增长13%。营销服务业务同比增长17%,金融科技及企业服务收入同比增长3%。AI战略加速,资本开支同比增长221%。公司持续加强股东回报,2024年回购股份和派发股息共计1440亿港元,2025年预计至少回购800亿港元,现金红利增长32%。

分业务来说:

1)微信流量:月活跃用户数同比增长3%,达13.85亿。

2)游戏业务:收入同比增长20%,国内外市场分别增长23%和15%。

3)腾讯视频:付费会员数同比略下滑3%,达1.13亿。

4)TME音乐:付费会员数同比增长13%,达1.21亿。

5)营销服务业务:同比增长17%,受视频号、小程序及微信搜一搜广告驱动。

6)金融科技及企业服务:收入同比增长3%,云业务增长态势向好。

7)AI战略:资本开支同比增长221%,AI全面加速,重塑全域生态。

海通国际证券认为:腾讯控股在4Q24的营收超出预期,同比增长11%,环比增长3%,达到1725亿元人民币,主要得益于游戏和广告业务的强劲表现。调整后的营业利润同比增长21%,环比下降3%,达到595亿元人民币。调整后的净利润同比增长30%,环比下降8%,达到553亿元人民币,净利润率保持在32.1%。公司计划在FY25加大对人工智能的投入,预计资本支出占总营收的12-13%,约900亿元人民币,同比增长约20%,以支持广告技术、游戏业务、LLM训练等多个领域。广告业务增长预期提升,得益于公司对AI的投资,预计1Q25E/FY25E广告收入分别达到310亿元/1410亿元,同比增长18%/17%。云业务预计加速增长,预计1Q25E/FY25E金融及商业服务收入达到550亿元/2280亿元,同比增长5%/8%。游戏业务增长势头持续,预计1Q25E/FY25E游戏收入达到550亿元/2130亿元,同比增长15%/8%。预计利润增长将继续超过营收增长,1Q25E/FY25E调整后的净利润达到620亿元/2510亿元,同比增长24%/13%。

(注:本文相关盈利预测数据均来自朝阳永续盈利预测数据库)

风险提示:本文所示数据或案例仅供参考之用,不能作为未来投资依据。投资股票有风险,市场波动、公司业绩、政策因素等都可能导致股票价格波动。请您在投资前充分了解相关信息,并根据自身的风险承受能力做出投资决策。

更多业绩前瞻数据,“码”上了解

上市公司盈利预测数据,是卖方分析师群体对上市公司业绩预测的共识与分歧。盈利预测数据基于各券商分析师对于上市公司“盈利预期数据的研究”,并挖掘产生“一致预期数据”。

朝阳永续盈利预测数据库由盈利预测基础库和盈利预测衍生库构成。首先,基于合法授权的海量卖方研报,朝阳永续形成原始盈利预测数据库,通过直接数据挖掘,提供A股一致预期数据及港股一致预期数据,投资者可以将其作为市场参考基准。其次,针对投资者研究需求,朝阳永续深度挖掘盈利预测数据形成盈利预测因子库及业绩确定性因子,可为投资者提供直接用于研究应用的盈利预测因子和策略。最后,通过对研究成果的衍生挖掘,也可为投资者提供业绩预期挖掘和研究员行为挖掘。

截止目前,朝阳永续盈利预测数据库已覆盖私募、公募、证券、银行、期货、资产管理公司、保险、信托等各类金融投研机构,伴随着香港科技、红利等资产的火热,朝阳永续盈利预测数据库将继续秉持“让数据更有价值”的使命,为投资者持续提供全面、准确、及时的盈利预测数据及服务。

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