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四平市(伊通满族自治县、铁东区、梨树县、双辽市、铁西区)

注:本分析文章仅代表崔东树个人观点,如有异议,请留言。

2025年3月的锂电池装车56.6GWh,同比增62%;三元电池装车同比下降12%,占比18%,低于同期;而磷酸铁锂电池装车同比增速97%,占比82%。三元电池增长大幅放缓。2025年动力电池的产量中装车的比例下降到40%,其中三元电池装车率39%,磷酸铁锂装车率40%。

根据合格证电池量测算,2025年3月的新能源汽车合格证产品产量是112万台、同比增53%。2025年1-3月新能源车国内合格证261万台、同比增44%较强,其中纯电动乘用157万台、同比增55%;插混乘用车92万台、同比增30%;纯电动专用车11.4万台、同比增39%,这样的产量数据还是较好的。1-3月,新能源专用车装车量21.1GWh,同比增长150.9%,增速明显。

纯电动车目前主力电池能量密度区间在125到160之间。尤其2025年1季度表现比较突出的是125到140的电池占比达到62%,同比上升18个百分点。2025年1-3月的电池能量密度160以上的车型占比9%,相对于2024年的16%出现了明显的下降,这主要还是磷酸铁锂电池对三元替代带来的能量密度下降。而125以下的能量密度的产品从2024年1季度的9%下降到了目前2025年的1%的比例。2025年一季度,受国际局势其它电池出口带动,动力和其它电池出口持续增长,合计累计出口61.5GWh,同比增长91.2%。其中3月受国际关税变化,国际市场有存货现象。

电池企业的竞争格局形成宁德时代和比亚迪两者相对较强的特征。宁德时代的2025年1季度占比上升到47.5%,比亚迪的占比从2020年的15%上升到2025年1季度的23%;其它电池企业的占比也出现了明显分化的态势。电池企业形成了头部企业聚集效应放缓的特征,从2022年的头两家企业72%的比例,2025年仍保持71%的比例,其它企业的空间有近30%左右的空间。

1、动力电池的装车占比

目前动力电池的产量中装车的比例在不断的降低,2021年动力电池装车的生产电池装机率达到70%;2022年是54%;2023年是50%;2024年动力电池的产量中装车的比例上升到50%,其中三元电池装车率50%,磷酸铁锂装车率50%;2025年动力电池的产量中装车的比例下降到40%,其中三元电池装车率39%,磷酸铁锂装车率40%。

随着储能等产业的发展,尤其是俄乌危机带来的世界能源危机,储能等产业的电池需求增长很快,导致装车的电池占比下降较明显,但年初的市场回落带来占比的下降。动力电池和储能电池都是生产过剩和库存相对表现压力较大的。2021年和2022年动力电池的增速低于整车增速,2023-2024年的动力电池装车偏低,电池产量持平于装车增速。2025年的电池生产较多,装车起步较低,3月装车率改善。

2、内销车型合格证电池装车的三元占比持续降低

动力电池装车的需求增长是波动的。2019年需求增长10%;2020年内销车型动力电池装车64GWh ,需求增长2%;2021年动力电池装车155GWh,需求增长143%;2022年装车295GWh,需求增长91%;2023年装车388GWh,需求增长32%;2024年锂电池装车548GWh,同比增长41%。

2025年3月的锂电池装车56.6GWh,同比增62%;三元电池装车同比下降12%,占比18%,低于同期;而磷酸铁锂电池装车同比增速97%,占比82%。三元电池增长大幅放缓。

3、汽车电池需求增长持续较强

乘用车电池需求增长持续较强,2025年的纯电动乘用车的电池需求增长49%,而插混乘用车的电池需求增长23%,持续较强增长。而纯电动专用车的电池需求是大幅增长,达到152%。

2025年3月的电池装车增长达到62%,其中商用车增长较强,尤其是3月的纯电动专用车猛涨134%,而插混专用车增长129%。

从电池装车占比看,近几年动力电池的需求结构在快速变化之中。2020年还是乘用车纯电动第一,纯电动客车第二,纯电动专用车第三的格局,而插电混动乘用车只是第四位的状态。而到了今年看,纯电动乘用车仍然保持第一位,而插电混动乘用车上升到第二位,纯电动专用车上升到第三位,而纯电动客车下降到第四位的水平。

近几年,纯电动客车市场剧烈的下降,而纯电动专用车保持用电池量上升较快。目前来看,纯电动客车从2020年的18.5%下降到2025年累计的1%的水平,下降了17个百分点。插电混动乘用车的电池用量增长相对比较迅猛,目前已经从2021年7%上升到2025年的18.4%的水平,增加11%,而纯电动下降到64.4%,插混与纯电动保持乘用车占比83%左右的绝对核心的电池需求特征。

4、汽车合格证产量

根据合格证电池量测算, 2024年新能源车国内市场的装车1168万台、同比增42%较强,其中纯电动乘用车635万台、同比增21%;插混乘用车471万台、同比增85%;纯电动专用车54万台、同比增45%,这样的产量数据还是较好的。

2025年3月的新能源汽车合格证产品产量是112万台、同比增53%。2025年1-3月新能源车国内合格证261万台、同比增44%较强,其中纯电动乘用157万台、同比增55%;插混乘用车92万台、同比增30%;纯电动专用车11.4万台、同比增39%,这样的产量数据还是较好的。

5、配套电池企业远未充分竞争

过去几年,电池市场的竞争格局并没有发生明显的变化,2025年配套电池企业是达到41家的高位。由于动力电池市场的技术进步相对比较缓慢,而规模增长特征相对明显,因此,电池企业获得了较强的生产和装车数量增长的特征。

原有的电池的格局没有明显变化,看谁投资多,然后谁就能获得较大的市场份额,因此形成主力电池企业扩张表现持续较强的特征;而中小型电池企业也有靠技术或其它方面突破获得一定增长的机会。因此,电池格局在高速增长中应该说总体相对稳定。

但是未来电池产业变化的机会相对较大,未来整车企业造电池或整车联合相关的企业共同造电池的趋势日益的明显,电池企业逐步会形成整车的核心配套的产品。

6、各类车型配套电池带电量分化

目前电动汽车市场高端化的需求十分强烈,而是类似于“老头乐”升级为小微型汽车、家庭中低端代步的需求大,尤其是受疫情影响对经济型电动车的需求较高,但2024年2季度的短续航电动车不给免税政策,导致高端化明显。2024年下半年,随着以旧换新等政策推动,小车市场回暖,2025年初以来的微型电动车火爆。

就供应链问题来看,未来整车企业将日益强大,对电池企业、对上游产业链的控制能力会进一步加强,同时对下游的品牌营销能力的掌控也在进一步加强。在新能源的体系下,“整车为王”的特征将进一步持续体现。

7、高能量密度的电池需要下降

纯电动车目前主力电池能量密度区间在125到160之间。尤其2025年1季度表现比较突出的是125到140的电池占比达到62%,同比上升18个百分点。

2025年1-3月的电池能量密度160以上的车型占比9%,相对于2024年的16%出现了明显的下降,这主要还是磷酸铁锂电池对三元替代带来的能量密度下降。而125以下的能量密度的产品从2024年1季度的9%下降到了目前2025年的1%的比例。

8、电池企业格局

电池企业的竞争格局形成宁德时代和比亚迪两者相对较强的特征。宁德时代的2025年1季度占比上升到47.5%,比亚迪的占比从2020年的15%上升到2025年1季度的23%,其它电池企业的占比也出现了明显分化的态势。电池企业形成了头部企业聚集效应放缓的特征,从2022年的头两家企业72%的比例,2025年仍保持71%的比例,其它企业的空间有近30%左右的空间。

磷酸铁锂电池的产品差异优势明显。比亚迪相对优秀,但今年年初处于调整期。宁德时代的铁锂电池的占比份额从2024年1季度已经反超比亚迪,4-6月比亚迪开始发力恢复,但下半年增速跟不上,2025年1季度差了9.3个百分点。亿纬锂能(维权)和蜂巢能源表现较强。欣旺达、中创新航、瑞浦兰鈞、极电新能源的提升明显。

由于比亚迪全面转型磷酸铁锂电池,因此宁德时代、中创新航、蜂巢等前三家的三元电池优势更加明显,近期巨湾技研、亿纬锂能表现较好。LG新能源因为特斯拉内销比例加大而较差,出口低迷导致LG的电池需求一般。

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