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基于美元疲软,以及新兴市场央行将有更多空间降低政策利率的前景,我们更倾向于新兴市场本币债券,而非新兴市场美元债券。

周一早盘,美元指数一度跌破99关口,最低触及98.63,创2022年4月以来新低。

受到美国总统特朗普关税政策影响,近期美国遭遇股债汇三杀,传统的避险资产美债、美元也不再受到青睐。上周特朗普连续炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔,并威胁解雇鲍威尔的言论,给美元更添负面因素。

在“美国例外论”式微、美元信用受损的背景下,全球投资者转向新兴市场本币债。

新兴市场本币债罕见跑赢美元债

尽管收益率低于美元计价债券,新兴市场本币债今年至今的表现却跑赢美元债。媒体数据显示,新兴市场本币债券今年至今的回报率为3.2%,而新兴市场美元债同期回报率仅为0.7%。这意味着新兴市场本币债,相对于新兴市场美元债的走势,录得2022年以来最强开局。

就债券收益率来说,新兴市场本币债平均收益率已降至4.03%,而新兴市场美元债平均收益率则高达7.1%,美国国债平均收益率为4.12%左右。根据媒体汇编数据,仅4月至今,18个新兴经济体的一年期利率互换指数就下降了约15个基点,创下去年9月以来的最大月度跌幅。

研究和咨询公司GlobalDataTSLombard驻伦敦的新兴市场宏观战略董事总经理哈里森(JonHarrison)表示,新兴市场本币债走势跑赢美元债是一种不同寻常的情况,即历史上风险较高的债券的收益率反而低于以美元计价的债券,而美元传统上是世界主要的避险资产。他分析称,这可能是因为由特朗普关税政策导致全球贸易动荡,且油价下跌冷却了许多新兴市场经济体的通胀。在此背景下,市场对新兴市场央行降息的预期提升。与此同时,由于特朗普关税政策反复无常给美元造成压力,美元债券表现不佳。

“基于美元疲软,以及新兴市场央行将有更多空间降低政策利率的前景,我们更倾向于新兴市场本币债券,而非新兴市场美元债券。”他补充称,“美国经济放缓、衰退的可能性也越来越大,对全球增长不利,这可能会进一步激励新兴市场央行降息。”

本币债预计将继续跑赢美元债,美元债发行恐下降

荷宝(Robeco)的亚洲主权策略师马克尼卡拉斯(PhilipMcNNicholas)也称:“在规模巨大的全球债市中,我们更倾向于新兴市场本币债券,因为这为我们提供了更大的手段来表达我们对新兴市场本币、货币政策、长期债券和收益率曲线的看法。他称:“美国国债和美国政策的波动性加剧,应该会带来更高的长期溢价——正如目前所发生的那样——并削弱美元的吸引力。随着美元疲软提振新兴经济体本币走势,新兴本币债券可能得到进一步提振。

富达国际(FidelityInternational)的固定收益投资组合经理里德尔(MikeRiddell)对一财记者表示,“在长达十年的美元牛市后,美元目前看起来仍然非常昂贵。而美元高估值的逐渐解除,加上此前长期存在许多美元多头头寸,相关头寸的平仓可能是新兴市场本币和本币债,多年来主要的顺风因素。”

而美元以及美元债前景的恶化,也使得一些债券发行人对发售以美元计价的债券融资,变得更谨慎。根据媒体汇编的数据,4月至今,除中国外的新兴市场美元债券发行量与去年同期相比下降了36%,仅为51亿美元。

高盛分析师特尔特(AndrewTilton)在研报中写道:新兴市场地方政府债券发行量预计将继续超越美元债。面对美国和全球经济衰退的担忧,新兴市场本币债券将有望跑赢其他各类新兴市场资产。

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