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东莞市

  周四,华尔街的“抛售美国资产”交易出现动摇,美国股市在贸易紧张局势缓解引发的三日连涨中大幅上扬。不过,特朗普政府发出的矛盾信息抑制了投资者的热情,也让市场对任何潜在交易的持久性感到紧张不安。

  本周早些时候,投资者纷纷抛售美国股票和传统避险资产,10年期美国国债收益率飙升至4.4%以上,美元跌至2022年以来的最低水平。

  这种不同寻常的举动,即同时抛售风险资产和波动性对冲资产,被视为一种罕见的市场错位,策略师们将其称为声名狼藉的“抛售美国资产”交易。但随着投资者重新买入美国债券和美元,这些趋势本周开始出现逆转。

  周三,10年期国债收益率降至4.3%左右,美元也接近具有心理重要意义的100关口。与此同时,黄金在近几天创下多项纪录后,于周三回落至每盎司3290美元左右。此前,投资者纷纷涌入以非美元计价的全球公认价值储存资产,而黄金价格的回落进一步表明“抛售美国资产”交易正在降温。

  但在周四的交易中,黄金价格再次飙升至每盎司3340美元左右,与此同时美元也失去了上涨动力。与这一趋势相悖的是10年期美国国债收益率,该收益率在周三晚些时候曾反弹上升,但在周四又回落至4.3%左右的水平。

  除了看起来较为有利的贸易发展动态之外,特朗普决定放弃罢免美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔的尝试,这也有助于缓解投资者的担忧。

  自本月早些时候总统宣布“解放日”以来,投资者一直在应对一个动荡的市场,多种经济冲击加剧了市场的波动,这些冲击包括关裞、经济增长放缓以及地缘政治紧张局势升级。

  但总统已经暗示他一直在关注外界的声音,这使得一些策略师认为,他现在可能比以往更关注市场对其政策的反应。此前,特朗普政府曾声称,在近期的股市抛售期间,他们并未关注股市动态。

  特鲁斯金融公司(Truist)联席首席投资官兼首席市场策略师基思・勒纳对雅虎财经表示:“人们更加关注市场波动性,尤其是10年期国债收益率,而不仅仅是股市。我认为,特朗普对于10年期国债收益率升至多高或跌至多低会感到满意,心里也是有个底线的。”

  “持续努力”以重建市场稳定

  通常情况下,当股票和债券同向波动时,是因为通胀飙升推动美元走高。然而,这一次,信心危机似乎扰乱了这种惯常的市场动态。

  总统团队的关键成员,包括财政部长斯科特・贝森特,都试图缓解投资者的担忧。

  贝森特在周三的一次演讲中谈到关裞问题时表示:“我想明确一点,‘美国优先’并不意味着美国孤立。相反,这是呼吁贸易伙伴之间进行更深入的合作和相互尊重。”

  贝森特强调了在近期市场波动中维持美元稳定的重要性,他说:“在我的有生之年,美元仍将是世界储备货币。”

  荷兰国际集团(ING)的外汇策略师弗朗西斯科・佩索莱告诉雅虎财经,白宫最初预计关裞会使美元走强,这样可以保护美国消费者免受物价上涨的影响。然而,信心下降却引发了美元抛售。

  佩索莱表示,这很可能“不是贝森特希望看到的情况”。“我认为,目前正在持续努力,至少要在美国首次受到通胀冲击的这段时间内,重建美元的一定稳定性。”

  随着投资者继续消化瞬息万变的新闻头条,一些策略师警告称,未来市场可能还会出现更多波动。

  泰玛蒂卡研究公司(TematicaResearch)首席投资官克里斯・弗萨奇周三表示:“我认为这是一次‘松口气’式的反弹。人们非常担心(关裞)带来的影响,担心经济受到的影响,以及未来几周我们将看到的盈利预期受到的影响。所以对我来说,这更像是一次‘松口气’式的反弹。”

  但他也警告说:“影响仍然会存在。我认为我们必须耐心等待,看看这新一轮潜在关裞的具体走向。我们还得拭目以待。”

专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

  在美元和美债因唐纳德·特朗普的关税与政策波动遭遇抛售之际,英国央行行长AndrewBailey称对美元失去储备货币地位的担忧“过头”。

  在美国在全球经济中的主导地位受到威胁的警告声中,Bailey周四表示,“需要巨大的转变才能改变储备货币地位的格局”。

  “我认为很多关于储备货币地位的讨论都过头了,”Bailey在国际货币基金组织(IMF)与世界银行春季会议期间接受采访时表示。

  “市场的许多结构都是围绕这一点构建的,”他说。“这不仅是货币的面值问题。还涉及作为抵押品的安全资产,例如美国国债。”

  Bailey此番言论正值市场对特朗普政府试图重塑世界经济秩序可能削弱美元长期主导地位的担忧升温。美元在本周早些时候跌至16个月低点,彭博美元即期指数4月以来下跌近4%,迈向两年多来的最差月度表现。

  日本财务大臣加藤胜信在华盛顿参加国际会议后对记者发表讲话。他表示,周四与美国财政部长贝森特的会谈中完全没有提及具体外汇汇率水平或目标。

  加藤称,他与贝森特确认,汇率应由市场决定。

  双方重申,过度的汇率波动将损害经济。

  两位财长同意继续就外汇问题进行建设性对话。

  加藤称,他向贝森特表示,美国的关税措施“非常令人遗憾”,并敦促美方重新考虑相关措施。

  此外,在华盛顿参加会议的日本央行行长植田和男表示,若经济展望如预期实现,日本央行将继续加息。

  他还强调,将特别关注与关税影响相关的数据。

专题:聚焦美股2025年第一季度财报

  在新任首席执行官陈立武领导下试图东山再起的英特尔对本季度作出疲软的预测,并表示将裁员以使成本与缩小的业务规模相当。

  该公司在周四的声明中表示,预计第二财季营收在112亿至124亿美元。这低于分析师平均预期的129亿美元,导致该公司股价在盘后交易中下跌超过6%。

  在公布展望的同时,陈立武还表示将迅速采取行动为其认为过于官僚化的企业文化注入活力。英特尔表示,成本削减计划将包括“削减管理层级”,以提升决策效率。

  公司尚未提供与裁员相关的一次性费用预估,但预计全年运营成本将在今年降至约170亿美元,2026年进一步降至160亿美元。本周早些时候报道称,英特尔计划裁员超过20%。

  英特尔财报的亮点是第一财季营收达到127亿美元,超过市场预期。该公司成为继德州仪器之后又一家交出好于分析师预估成绩单的芯片厂商。

  “当前宏观环境给整个行业带来了高度不确定性,这也体现在我们的展望中。”英特尔首席财务官DavidZinsner在声明中表示。“我们采取严谨审慎的方法来支持对核心产品和铸造业务的持续投资,同时最大限度地节约运营成本和提高资本效率”

  Zinsner表示目前没有对裁员规模的估计。

  英特尔第一季度每股亏损19美分。分析师估计营收为123.1亿美元,每股亏损22美分。该公司一季度经调整毛利率为39.2%,预计第二季度为36.5%。

 

  美国税收和经济政策研究所的分析显示,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税对低收入家庭带来的加税冲击是高收入群体的三倍以上。

  这家进步派智库的报告对如果当前实施的关税措施延续到明年,不同收入水平的美国人所受的影响进行了概述。由于物价更高,收入在28600美元或以下的人群将不得不多花收入的6.2%,而收入至少为914900美元的最富有群体预计将多花1.7%。收入在55100美元至94100美元之间的中等收入家庭将多花5%。

  经济学家警告称,加关税带来的成本最终将转嫁给美国消费者。虽然每个人面临的物价都会涨,但低收入家庭的损失与其预算之比会更大,因为他们在食品和其他必需品等商品上的支出占比高于高收入群体。

  耶鲁预算实验室估计,食品价格短期内可能因关税而上涨2.6%。其报告显示,在所有受影响的商品中,服装价格预计涨幅最大,达64%。

  耶鲁预算实验室预计,关税将导致美国家庭年均损失4700美元。

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