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(文章来源:每日经济新闻)

4月22日,HTFX外汇表示,伊拉克与库尔德斯坦地区(KRI)之间的石油争端本质上是关于主权的争议,而非仅仅是石油资源的争夺。伊拉克联邦最高法院和拟议的统一石油法案已经巩固了巴格达对石油收入的控制权,终结了KRI独立出口的能力。

  HTFX外汇进一步认为,土耳其的新管道计划绕过库尔德斯坦地区,与全球地缘政治格局的转变相一致,并努力减少西方在该地区的影响力。伊拉克的石油禁运争端在表面上看似与石油有关,但实际上是关于主权的斗争。伊拉克南部政府希望结束北部地区对南部的半自治状态的表象,简单地将其纳入统一的伊拉克。

  HTFX外汇还提到,尽管KRI地区在2023年3月25日实施了石油禁运,但这一禁运并非源于2014年南部与北部地区关于南部每月向北部支付一定预算以换取一定石油产量的协议破裂。实际上,这一协议从一开始就被巴格达设计为注定失败。因此,巴格达有权扣留KRI应得的大部分预算支付。

  HTFX外汇总结认为,尽管美国公司在这种情况下可能受损,但对中东和北非地区可能是有利的。这使得他们能够提供更短的交货时间来交付设备和服务,帮助避免可能导致非生产时间和成本超支的延误,这对高价值项目和钻探活动至关重要。

  日前,国家外汇管理局公布了2025年3月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据。国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年一季度外汇收支形势回答了记者提问。

  问:今年以来我国外汇市场运行情况如何?

  答:今年以来,外部环境发生深刻变化,国际金融市场波动加大,风险挑战增加。我国加快构建新发展格局,扎实推动高质量发展,实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,有力有效应对外部挑战,经济保持回升向好,外汇市场运行总体平稳。主要呈现三个特点:

  第一,人民币汇率双向浮动,保持相对稳定。截至4月21日,境内人民币对美元即期汇率(CNY)为7.288,较2024年末升值0.1%。4月以来,美方单边主义、保护主义行径引发国际金融市场剧烈波动,人民币对美元汇率先贬后升,与4月3日美宣布对贸易伙伴加征所谓“对等关税”前的水平大体相当。人民币汇率双向浮动属于市场正常变化,也反映了经济基本面对汇率的支撑作用。

  第二,外汇市场交易理性有序,跨境资金呈现净流入。银行结售汇差额逐步趋向均衡,3月小幅逆差20亿美元。企业等主体购汇需求回落,3月衡量购汇意愿的购汇率(银行代客购汇与涉外外汇支出之比)为64.4%,较1月高位回落近11个百分点。市场结汇意愿总体平稳,3月结汇率与1月基本持平。一季度,企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入517亿美元,处于同期较高水平。4月以来,外汇市场交易保持平稳,跨境资金延续净流入,银行结售汇呈现小幅顺差。

  第三,主要渠道跨境资金流动平稳有序。一是货物贸易资金净流入较快增加。一季度,我国外贸克服外部压力呈现较强韧性,货物贸易项下跨境资金净流入2063亿美元,同比增长1.2倍。二是外资配置人民币债券增多。2-3月外资净增持境内债券269亿美元,同比增长84%,4月1日至18日净买入332亿美元,保持较高规模。三是服务贸易、外资企业利润汇出总体平稳。一季度,服务贸易跨境资金净流出同比增长25%,其中旅行项下资金净流出增长12%。外资企业利润汇出处于季节性低位,同比下降7%。

  问:您对未来我国外汇市场走势有何判断?

  答:展望未来,尽管外部环境不稳定、不确定因素增多,但我国加快实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,靠前发力推动各项政策落地见效,经济优势多、韧性强、潜能大,将继续支撑外汇市场稳健运行。

  首先,我国经济运行开局良好,有力提振了市场信心。今年以来,我国加大宏观政策调控力度,部署实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,制定并实施提振消费专项行动方案,经济运行起步平稳,延续回升向好态势。一季度,我国经济同比增长5.4%,环比增长1.2%。国内需求扩大,社会消费品零售总额、固定资产投资同比增速分别较2024年全年加快1.1和1.0个百分点。3月我国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为50.5%,连续2个月处于景气区间。未来我国将根据形势需要及时推出新的增量政策,把扩大内需作为长期战略,推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展,对人民币汇率稳定和外汇市场稳健运行形成支撑。

  其次,我国持续扩大对外开放,积极稳外贸稳外资,有助于国际收支保持基本平衡。外贸方面,近年来我国外贸企业主动开拓多元化市场,稳步推进区域经贸合作,2024年我国对东盟、共建“一带一路”国家进出口占比分别为15.9%和50.3%,较2017年分别提高3.4和23.8个百分点。我国企业快速响应全球市场的多样化需求,加快培育外贸新模式,推进制造业转型升级,不断突破关键核心技术,外贸竞争力提升,产业链供应链更加稳固。外资方面,今年2月国家出台《2025年稳外资行动方案》,为外资来华展业兴业提供良好营商环境。同时,我国稳步扩大金融市场开放,拓宽跨境投融资渠道,人民币多元化资产配置功能凸显,境内证券市场对外资吸引力有望继续增强。国家外汇局持续深化外汇领域改革开放,将继续出台支持跨境贸易发展、便利跨境投融资的政策措施,助力更好稳外贸稳外资。

  第三,我国外汇市场韧性提升,抵御外部冲击的能力增强。近年来,人民币汇率市场化形成机制不断完善,汇率弹性增强。同时,企业积极运用外汇衍生品管理汇率风险,并更多使用跨境人民币结算降低货币错配风险。2025年一季度,货物贸易项下人民币跨境收支占比、企业外汇套期保值比率较上年均有所提升,企业应对汇率波动的能力增强,市场预期和交易更趋理性有序。

  下一步,外汇管理部门将持续强化外汇形势监测,保持汇率弹性,有效发挥汇率调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器功能,同时不断丰富跨境资金流动宏观审慎管理工具箱,坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏,防止汇率超调风险,防范跨境资金异常流动风险,维护国家经济金融安全。

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