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徐守盛秘书王华平,如何将这一色彩融入你的生活与时尚中
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每日复盘市场投资分析

2025年4月15日

市场回顾

2025年4月15日,市场全天探底回升,三大指数涨跌不一。上证指数涨幅0.15%,报收3267.66点,深证成指跌幅0.27%,报收9858.10点,创业板指跌幅0.13%,报收1930.40点。

板块方面:热点较为杂乱,大消费股一度走强,美容、电商、食品等方向领涨,一致魔芋30CM涨停。化工股表现活跃,中毅达4天3板。电力股持续活跃,建投能源等涨停。下跌方面,高位股集体大跌,连云港等多股跌停。美容护理、电商、食品、银行等板块涨幅居前,免税、港口、海南、轨交等板块跌幅居前。

个股方面:沪深两市全天成交额1.08万亿,较上个交易日缩量2003亿。个股跌多涨少,全市场超2800只个股下跌。数据来源:财联社

指数估值

周二各大指数涨跌不一,百分位、估值出现不同程度上移及调整,可以作为参考因子,当分位点达到高点,可以辅助短期操作进行高抛,当分位点调整至低点,可以辅助短期操作进行低吸。中期可以在低估点位,逐步开始定投。(蓝色当前,黄色是平均)。数据来源:Wind 

投顾解读

指数分析:三大指数周二探底后回升,沪指重心继续提高,沪指目前依旧在5日线上运行,但由于增量资金不足,且板块轮动速度加快,可能回补短期跳空向上的缺口3186.81-3201.57点。市场年报、一季报接下来会密售披露,为了规避潜在风险,短期建议控制仓位,谨慎开仓。对等关税的加征影响,短期会逐步弱化,因为数据已经失去意义。预期4月市场大概率震荡为主,短期侧重防守。

今日各大指数普跌,排序依次是微盘股>上证50>中证2000>沪深300>中证1000>中证500。整体来看,市场增量不足,微盘股相对更受资金追捧,风格依旧按照既定节奏,在大盘、小盘、微盘间快速轮动,今日尾盘国家队明显维稳呵护,上证50、沪深300尾盘走高,带动沪指翻红。

板块分析:

消费,食品饮料、美容护理、互联网电商等板块领涨。五一假期临近,消费复苏预期升温,叠加近期外资回流消费龙头,推动了板块估值修复。同时,国内消费刺激政策加码,如家电以旧换新、手机销售补贴等,也为消费股提供了支撑。固态电池,主要受益于钠离子电池技术突破及政策补贴加码,以及龙头企业宣布固态电池研发进展,推动了板块热度升温。整体市场轮动速度明显加快,伴随量能的持续递减,个股的短线套利难度也会增加,短期留意内需方向,但注意把握好交易节奏,注意快进快出。稳健投资者可以等待一个分歧调整的节点,再度切入主线方向。

操作策略:短期策略,当前市场成交量偏弱,市场大概率进入到震荡整固阶段,建议围绕日内发酵新启动方向切入为主(短期反制的稀土永磁、农业、内需消费等),注意快进快出。中期策略,4月份将进入一季报的验证阶段,可关注一季报业绩端具有相对确定性或股息率较高带来一定防御属性的有色金属和基础化工部分细分领域、家用电器和银行行业。长期策略,对于具有核心竞争力和长期发展潜力的行业和公司,如人形机器人、固态电池等方向逢调整企稳,可以考虑低吸布局。

配置上:海洋经济:近日,深圳海洋产业发展交流会海促会会长杨洪表示,海洋经济正处于历史上最好的发展时期,国产化替代和人工智能、大数据、AI技术与海洋经济融合发展,带来了新的机遇。预计未来深海资源开发效率将大大提升,这不仅将构建新型战略资源储备体系,更将推动海洋经济从传统“浅层开发”模式,向涵盖勘探、开采、加工的全产业链价值挖掘模式跨越。建议围绕深海科技产业链全环节布局,把握勘测、开采、运输、通信四大核心领域机遇。勘测端,重点关注卡位水下机器人赛道核心配套及辅助技术的卫星遥感、声纳技术垄断性企业,可聚焦其科研、民品及军用应用场景持续拓展;开采端,关注海底挖掘系统装备企业;运输端,关注船舶工业及管道运输产业;通信端,聚焦光纤光缆等通信网络搭建领域。信息来源:证券时报

固态电池:固态电池技术是锂电池领域的重要技术革新,也是全球竞争中新兴的生产力焦点。自从国家从高层开始大力推动低空经济以来,由于低空飞行器对高能量密度电芯的迫切需求,全固态电芯的大规模生产变得日益重要,产业发展的趋势也在不断强化。同时,低空经济对全固态电池的成本承受能力较高,这将有助于推动全固态电池从0到1的规模化应用突破。建议关注产业链上游的锂矿资源、正极材料、负极材料以及生产设备;以及中游的电芯生产、电池管理系统和能源管理系统。

人形机器人:特斯拉更新Optimus整机下的三代22自由度灵巧手接球视频。Optimus机器人左前臂装有第三代灵巧手及集成小臂,进行了两次轨迹随机的抓球动作。以及12月23日,宇树科技更新一条UnitreeB2-W机器狗视频,可以完成托马斯全旋、侧空翻、360°跳跃转体、冲跳、极地跑酷等动作。随着机器狗在语音识别、自然语言理解、视觉认知、情感互动与仿生设计等方面的提升,应用于家庭陪伴的机器狗市场也有望持续增长。中商产业研究院发布的《2022-2027年中国机器人行业深度分析及投资风险研究报告》显示,2024年中国人形机器人市场规模将达27.6亿元,市场处于起步阶段。中商产业研究院分析师预测,2029年人形机器人市场规模将达750亿元,2035年人形机器人市场规模将达3000亿元。关注产业链机会,执行层以驱动电机和传动装置构成,驱动电机有无框电机、空心杯电机等,传动装置有减速器、丝杠和轴承等。感知层主要是传感器,分为力传感器和视觉传感器两类。控制层由芯片和算法系统构成,CPU和GPU构成机器人的“硬件大脑”,算法和系统构成机器人的“控制意识”。人形机器人量产将促进技术成熟和上游核心零部件发展,特别是减速器、电机、传感器、丝杆等高价值部件值得关注。

信息来源:2024年中国人形机器人市场规模及投融资情况预测分析 中商情报网

(转自:肥猫财经)

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