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近期,国务院国资委相关负责人在中国电动汽车百人会论坛上表示,下一步将对整车央企进行战略性重组,旨在提高产业集中度和打造世界一流汽车集团。这一表态释放出汽车央企重组全面提速的强烈信号。在此背景下,商用车行业整合步伐也有望加速推进。那么,这是否意味着该行业将借此机会催生出“航母级”新巨头?这场变革又将给商用车产业带来怎样的深远影响?

破解“大而不强”产业困局

汽车央企的重组整合酝酿已久,早在2015年便已初见端倪。彼时,三大汽车央企高层频繁的人事变动,曾一度引发业界诸多猜测。历经多年筹备,东风和长安率先开启中国汽车“国家队”集结的征程。

今年年初,东风股份、东风科技和长安汽车相继发布公告,称其母公司正在与其他国资央企集团筹划重组事宜。尽管公告未明确重组对象,但发布时间和内容的高度一致,为两家央企的潜在合作增添了诸多想象空间。直至3月底,东风股份管理层在2024业绩会上明确表示,与长安汽车的整合工作正在控股股东层面有序推进,坐实了重组传闻。

与此同时,政策层面鼓励汽车企业“合并重组”的导向也愈发清晰。国家发改委、工信部多次提出,要推动汽车产业转型升级和企业优化重组,提高产业集中度。此次国务院国资委力推汽车央企战略性重组,无疑为行业内更多、更深入的整合行动注入新动力。

在业内人士看来,政府部门此时推动汽车央企重组,不仅是对当前汽车产业无序竞争和技术短板问题的有力回应,更是顺应产业变革、应对全球化竞争的关键举措,对于重塑全球汽车产业格局意义重大。这一战略逻辑在商用车领域同样具有高度的适用性。

尽管我国多年来一直是全球最大的商用车产销国,但产业发展仍存在不少问题。一方面,行业集中度不高、资源分散,企业在研发、生产、销售等环节各自为战,导致大量重复建设和资源浪费。在电动化、智能化变革的浪潮中,部分央企和国有企业由于资源未能有效整合,研发效率低下,关键技术依赖进口,发展相对滞后;另一方面,在国际竞争中,我国商用车出口量虽增长迅速,但面临关税壁垒、地缘政治风险等挑战。再加上企业多采用“单兵作战”模式,难以形成强大的竞争合力。此外,行业内卷加剧,低价和同质化竞争等问题严重削弱行业创新动力。

“在此背景下,新一轮资源整合和企业重组并非简单的规模叠加,其核心在于通过‘握指成拳’,将‘规模优势’转化为‘生态优势’,以集约化发展破解长期以来‘大而不强’的产业困局。”物流行业专家孔震表示,这场由国资委主导的变革,或将成为商用车产业从分散竞争走向集约化发展的重要转折点。

权衡各方利益探索重组最优解

汽车央企的重组整合,旨在破除“内耗外困”的严峻局面,同时也是为了推动产业升级,实现做强做专的长远目标。聚焦商用车领域,重组的深远影响和积极意义将在多个关键维度上逐步凸显并持续发酵。

以东风和长安为例,两家央企在商用车领域均有布局且各具优势。一旦重组完成,将实现资源高效整合和优势互补。在技术研发层面,双方可打破壁垒,实现技术共享,共同攻克车规级芯片、智能驾驶算法等“卡脖子”难题,减少重复研发投入,提升整体技术竞争力,加速向新能源、智能驾驶等前沿领域转型升级;在供应链管理方面,通过整合资源、优化资产配置,实现供应链协同降本增效,增强供应链稳定性和可靠性。从市场竞争角度来看,重组带来的规模效应和品牌效应,有助于提升商用车产业集中度,减少内耗,在资源配置和全球布局上形成优势,增强我国商用车在国际市场的影响力和话语权。

一位资深汽车行业投资人表示,随着汽车央企整合步伐不断推进,有望掀起更广泛的企业重组热潮。除了现有汽车央企间的融合将持续深化,其他央企、地方国企及民营企业也可能纷纷投身其中,共同参与到这场变革中来。可以预见,未来商用车领域通过合并组建大型集团的趋势将愈发显著,成为行业发展的新常态。不过,他也指出,整合虽带来诸多好处,但面临的挑战同样不容小觑。例如,重组方式、路径和策略设计至关重要,如何确保重组后能充分发挥协同效应,将整合优势转化为真正的市场竞争力,实现“1+1>2”的效果,仍存在诸多不确定性。因此,在设计重组方案和利益分配机制时,需要尊重市场规律,充分考虑中央战略、地方利益和企业诉求之间的平衡。同时,鉴于不同企业在机制体制、技术水平、市场定位和品牌形象等方面存在差异,重组过程不能简单地“合并同类项”,而要通过“专业化整合”来激发企业活力,实现企业文化融合、人事妥善安排及业务协同整合,从而避免出现内耗、低效和“集而不合”“大而不强”等问题。

加速融合共生迎接全新阶段

汽车央企掀起的新一轮整合浪潮,有望推动我国商用车产业实现深度转型,从以往单纯依赖规模扩张的“规模竞争”模式,加速向更加注重核心技术研发、品牌价值塑造与服务品质提升的“价值竞争”模式转变。这一转型不仅将重塑国内商用车市场竞争格局,还将推动我国商用车企业走向全球舞台,参与国际竞争。

随着更多整合方案的落地实施,商用车行业优胜劣汰的速度将明显加快,市场资源将加速向优势企业集中,进一步提升行业集中度。在这一过程中,商用车领域有望诞生具备全产业链竞争力的新巨头,重塑全球商用车产业格局。

当然,合并重组并非企业发展的惟一路径。企业能否在规模效应与灵活性之间找到平衡,在技术自主与协同创新方面取得进展,以及克服管理协同、文化融合等深层次挑战,将决定重组的“必然性”。

在业内人士看来,短期内,在政策持续推动和市场竞争加剧的双重作用下,头部商用车企业为增强抗风险能力和市场话语权,可能会加速合并重组步伐,选择抱团取暖以应对激烈的市场竞争;而中小品牌由于资源有限、竞争力相对较弱,极有可能会被大型企业收编整合,或是被迫退出市场。从长远来看,整合能力将成为企业在复杂市场环境中生存和发展的核心竞争力,未来商用车行业有望呈现“头部整合+细分深耕”的多元化发展格局。

“无论未来产业格局如何变化,行业参与者都必须夯实基础,稳固现有业务,加大技术研发投入,加速产品创新迭代,提升组织管理效能,全方位打造核心竞争力。否则,在行业整合深化、竞争门槛提高的大趋势下,将难以在市场立足。”孔震进一步强调,在国内市场整合优化的过程中,商用车行业将迎来合作与竞争并存、发展与转型共进的新阶段,这既是挑战也是机遇,只有积极变革、勇于创新的企业,才能在浪潮中勇立潮头。

文:李亚楠编辑:孙伟川 版式:李沛洋

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