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  中新社温哥华4月16日电(记者余瑞冬)在美国发动贸易战并导致全球经济前景不确定性增加的背景下,加拿大央行16日宣布将基准利率,即隔夜拆借利率维持在2.75%不变,从而为自去年6月以来的连续降息按下“暂停键”。

  加央行行长麦克勒姆在渥太华对媒体表示,美国贸易政策走向仍难预测,贸易战对加拿大经济的影响也存在相当大的不确定性。他说:“我们仍然不知道将征收哪些关税,关税是会降低还是会升级,也不知道这一切会持续多久。”

  加央行在其新闻稿中表示,美国贸易政策方向的重大转变和关税的不可预测性增加了不确定性,削弱了经济增长前景,并提高了通胀预期。对加拿大和全球经济增长及通胀走势的预测变得异常困难。在加拿大,关税和不确定性削弱了消费者和企业信心,经济正在放缓。预计关税和供应链中断将推高部分价格。这对通胀会造成多大的上行压力将取决于关税的变化以及企业将增加的成本转嫁给消费者的速度。

  加央行指出,货币政策无法解决贸易不确定性,也无法抵消贸易战的影响。其货币政策能够且必须做的是为民众维护价格稳定。

  加央行在当日发布的货币政策报告中预测了两种场景。一,若大部分新关税通过谈判得以取消,加拿大经济将在今年第二季度停滞,之后温和增长。通胀率有望在今年稍晚时和明年降至2%的目标水平以内。二,若全球贸易战长期持续,则经济后果将十分严重。加拿大经济将在今年第二季度萎缩,并陷入为期一年的衰退,且持续疲软至2027年。

  麦克勒姆表示,若陷入旷日持久的贸易战,通胀压力将面临相反的两面:经济疲软将对通胀造成下行压力,而关税成本上升将对通胀造成上行压力。关税的不确定性及其对通胀的相反作用,使得当前预测通胀尤为困难。他说,在加拿大面临这场“不必要的”贸易战之际,货币政策将确保通胀得到有效控制,并支持经济增长。

  加拿大是新冠疫情发生后率先降息的七国集团(G7)成员国。此前,加央行从去年6月初以来已连续七次降息,使基准利率由5%逐步下调至2.75%。其下一次公布政策利率调整决定的时间是6月4日。(完)新闻结尾 荷兰vodafone办公室,畅享精彩视觉盛宴千层浪视频绿色版让你的相关文章
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