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近日,卫星化学(002648.SZ,股价16元,市值538.98亿元)召开了2024年度股东大会。

据2024年年报,卫星化学去年实现营业收入456.48亿元,同比增长10.03%,实现归母净利润60.72亿元,同比增长26.77%。

董秘沈晓炜对此表示,2024年面临着国内外不确定因素,以及国内石化行业“低端过剩,高端紧缺”的供需结构不平衡的挑战,公司仍能保持业绩增长,主要原因一方面是公司战略上有先发优势,即原料成本低、供应链完整以及产业链一体化。另一方面是公司采用技术领先策略,通过研发创新对产品实现了差异化与高端化稳步转变,品质较高,能够卖出溢价。

在股东大会交流环节,董事长杨卫东对《每日经济新闻》记者表示,关税调整对公司既是挑战,也是机遇。今年4月以来,原材料丙烷FEI(远东指数,FarEastIndex)价格大幅下跌,从月初的618美元/吨跌至近期的450美元/吨,使公司的进料加工业务存在套利空间。

将积极采取可行方案应对关税调整

公开资料显示,卫星化学的原料成本优势之一,便是与美国头部能源公司ET合作成立合资公司共同拥有资源出口资产,没有其他中间环节,据悉,公司通过在美国自建码头、管道获得乙烷资源,并且拥有成熟的乙烷船队。

另一方面,2024年年底,国务院关税税则委员会将乙烷作为绿色清洁能源在《2025年关税调整方案》进行单列,2025年关税从2%下降至1%。

今年4月开始,受关税调整影响,卫星化学股价波动较大。3月31日,公司股价一度涨至近3年来的高点23.19元/股,截至4月16日收盘,公司股价为16.00元/股。

在4月6日卫星化学召开的电话会议上,公司表示已制定三套方案:一是积极与相关部门反映,争取乙烷不列入加征关税清单;二是如列入加征清单,公司将第一时间争取豁免;三是如对乙烷加征关税,公司将采取来料加工、乙烯换货等业务模式应对关税影响。

在此次年度股东大会上,杨卫东称,公司将积极采取可行的应对方案,努力减少影响。

杨卫东表示,公司一直都有进料加工业务,具有丰富的经验。“过去公司以内贸为主、外贸为辅,而通过进料加工,将转换为外贸为主、内贸为辅,虽然加工量较多,需要一定的时间,即使产品短期内找不到销售对象,按照规定,仍可存放最多2年时间,但我相信,会有相关政策帮助企业解决关税问题。”杨卫东说。

沈晓炜补充称,相较过去的来料加工业务,公司为应对关税影响采取了进料加工业务,虽然需要公司自身承担原材料和产成品的价格波动,但公司拥有多年化工行业经验,能够从价格波动中套利。

公司IR(投资者关系)总监李扬也表示,公司无论做何种加工方式,对比下游产品价格,依然能够维持一个比较好的价差,“对比公司之前的加工模式,进料加工会稍微复杂一些,中间会有一些费用,但对企业整体成本影响较小”。

目前化工品价格还处于底部区间

公司年报显示,2024年,卫星化学投资建成年产10万吨乙醇胺装置,进一步完善环氧乙烷下游化学品布局,形成182万吨/年乙二醇、50万吨/年聚醚大单体与表面活性剂、20万吨/年乙醇胺、15万吨/年碳酸酯等产能。此外,公司还拥有80万吨/年聚乙烯、40万吨/年聚苯乙烯等产能。

在此次年度股东大会上,李扬表示,公司的C2和C3产品有数十种,在关税调整之前,整体价格走势非常好,2024年,产品的整体售价从一季度到四季度基本是逐季提升,今年一季度价格虽然环比有所回落,但同比依然是上涨的,如丙烯酸,2024年年底价格每吨为7900元至8000元,一季度价格出现短暂回落后,近期已回升至每吨7400元至7500元。

“中国化工整体产能扩张目前已进入尾声,供给增速放缓,这对化工品价格也起到了一定的支撑作用。”李扬说。

公司2024年年报提到,行业“低端过剩,高端紧缺”的结构性问题愈发突出,高端聚烯烃自给率仅为65%。2024年,中国聚乙烯进口量高达1303万吨,在大批新增产能投产的背景下,净进口依存度仍达31.9%,同比上升0.3%;中国茂金属聚乙烯进口量超过200万吨,自给率不足20%;POE(一种热塑性弹性体材料)进口量达91万吨,同比上涨6%,进口依存度接近100%。

对此,沈晓炜表示,从历史周期来看,目前化工品价格还处于底部区间,中国每年从美国进口聚乙烯约238万吨,加征关税导致聚乙烯进口量减少,国内供需平衡打破,产品价格有望出现上涨。

在4月6日的电话会议上,卫星化学方面表示,中国每年从美国进口丙烷占比约50%,如加征关税,国内PDH(丙烷脱氢)生产企业开工率会下降,导致丙烯价格上涨,从而带动下游丙烯酸、丁辛醇价格进一步上涨。公司布局了下游α-烯烃、POE、PAO、超高分子量聚乙烯、乙烯胺等高端化学新材料项目,有望解决当前高端新材料依赖进口的现状,享受市场先发优势。

沈晓炜介绍称,由于公司近两年突破了催化剂的技术和工艺,目前茂金属聚乙烯和POE等产品已进入中试阶段,为后续解决国内高端聚烯烃长期以来依赖进口的难题奠定基础。“茂金属聚乙烯的生产核心在于催化剂、工艺和原料α-烯烃,公司在2023年攻破了α-烯烃的生产技术,现在正在建设10万吨/年的生产装置。”

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