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  来源:Wind万得

  周一,美国股市再次下跌,原因是特朗普加大了对美联储主席鲍威尔的攻击力度,引发外界对美联储独立性的质疑;与此同时,交易员们几乎未看到全球贸易谈判取得进展的迹象。

  道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌971.82点,跌幅达2.48%,报38,170.41点。标普500指数下跌2.36%,收于5,158.20点;纳斯达克综合指数更是下挫2.55%,收报15,870.90点,创下自今年2月以来最大单日跌幅。

  这轮市场下跌的重要导火索之一,是他再次通过其社交平台向美联储主席鲍威尔发难。他称鲍威尔为“Mr.TooLate,大失败者”,并要求其“立即降息”,否则美国经济将陷入放缓。上周,他还暗示可能“终止”鲍威尔的职务,引发市场对美联储独立性和政策中立性的高度警觉。

  尽管总统直接解雇美联储主席在法律上存在复杂性,但他的言论足以在市场中激起巨大不安。“我们正目睹的是一场围绕货币政策主导权的争夺战,”SimplifyAssetManagement首席策略师MichaelGreen指出,“这令人联想到2020年初期美国政府与美联储间的矛盾冲突。”

  在周一的市场表现中,科技板块遭遇重创,曾被市场追捧的“MagnificentSeven”(七大科技巨头)成为主要的下跌推手。特斯拉股价暴跌5.8%,英伟达下跌超4%,亚马逊和Meta平台公司均下跌约3%。老牌制造商卡特彼勒也下滑2.8%,反映出市场的恐慌已蔓延至传统工业板块。

  这显示出投资者正在快速从高估值、高增长的科技股中撤出资金,转而寻求避险。与此同时,美元持续承压,跌至三年来新低,而黄金则因避险需求激增而飙升至每盎司3,400美元的历史高位。

  除了内政不确定性,国际贸易局势的持续恶化也是打压市场情绪的另一重因素。自美国于4月2日宣布对多国进口商品加征关税以来,市场便开始进入下行通道。截至目前,标普500指数累计下跌约9%,道指下跌9.6%,纳指跌幅逼近10%。

  “我们面对的是一个方向难明的市场。”美国银行高级投资策略师RobertHaworth表示。“没人知道关税最终会演变成什么样,市场无法根据政策走向进行资产配置。”

  他进一步指出,如果这种不确定性持续多个季度,将会对企业盈利预期和战略决策产生重大冲击。在刚刚过去的财报季中,已有不少企业表达了对未来订单、原材料成本及出口市场前景的担忧。

  // 美元暴跌创3年新低//

  今年以来,美元指数持续下行,4月21日刷新近三年低点,盘中跌破98,《纽约时报》近期分析称,美元持续下跌,可能表明投资者开始避开长期以来是全球金融市场“避风港”的美元。

  美媒称,投资者们原本预测,随着关税政策实施,美元会升值。因为传统观念认为,关税会抑制美国人购买进口商品,进而减少对外国货币的需求。美国财政部长贝森特曾提出,美元的升值幅度将大到足以抵消通货膨胀上升的影响。

  然而,美政府宣布的关税规模远超预期,引发剧烈动荡。《华尔街日报》援引分析指出,美元作为可靠“避风港”的地位已经受损。麦格理集团的金融市场经济学家维兹曼表示,此轮美国政策巨变不仅威胁到美元在市场承压时期的避险地位,还可能削弱美元作为事实上的全球货币的地位。这可能会引发一系列负面后果,包括美国政府和消费者的借款成本上升。

  华尔街资深投资者、知名经济学家彼得·希夫(PeterSchiff)日前指出,美国政府混乱的经济政策给美元蒙上阴影,这种情绪正反应在美元指数上。本届政府上台之初,美元指数大幅上涨,但随着一系列经济政策推出并实施,美元开始走弱。

  // 黄金站上3400美元/盎司//

  4月21日,COMEX黄金盘中突破3400美元/盎司再创历史新高。由于全球贸易局势担忧情绪升温,加上对经济衰退的担心导致美元跌至两年新低,黄金价格在周一亚市强劲上涨。

  中信证券此前发布研报指出,近期黄金价格再创新高,主要是海外市场衰退交易与美国关税政策反复变化触发的恐慌交易所致。综合通胀、增长、关税、地缘政治等多个因素来看,当前黄金行情难言结束。

  东证期货则指出,当前,美国贸易政策仍然是黄金市场交易的核心逻辑。美国陆续与日本、欧盟等国展开谈判,但进展较为缓慢,市场继续围绕去美元化的中长期逻辑展开交易。

  中信建投表示,“对等关税”驱动金价上行,COMEX金价不断刷新历史记录,做多黄金成了投资者的一致选择。美国政府反复不定,除了催生的避险需求外,还削弱了市场对美元资产的信任,导致美债遭受抛售、美元指数大幅下挫。可以说,美国这些措施加速全球“去美元化”,全球多元化货币体系的重构,全球央行加大对黄金的净买入,2022-2024年全球央行年购金数量均超1000吨。全球央行叠加投资者的买入力量令金价呈现易涨难跌,重心不断上行的格局。

  高盛报告指出,本月金价的主要拉动力量来自亚洲官方机构买盘。尽管当前金价已显著上扬,但是当前价格仍是一个具有吸引力的入场点,预期金价年底目标价为3700美元/盎司。中期黄金价格风险仍偏向上行,在尾部风险情景下,到2025年底黄金价格可能超过每盎司4200美元。

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