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王总别在卫生间好吗|感受丝绸带来的奢华与品质生活

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  汇通财经APP讯——本周三,黄金价格一度上涨1.4%,升破3275美元/盎司,刷新历史新高。此前高点刚刚在本周一创下,显示出市场对黄金作为避险资产的强烈青睐。

  市场避险情绪上升的直接导火索,是美国总统特朗普下令对关键矿产进口展开调查,暗示或将对相关原材料加征新关税,进一步加剧了对全球供应链中断的担忧。

  “大国之间的权力博弈不会停止,黄金的避险属性意味着它在短中期内更可能上涨而非下跌。”——GalaxyFutures分析师王禄晨(LuchenWang)

  贸易政策反复无常,投资者转向黄金ETF和央行购金潮

  自年初以来,黄金累计上涨超过20%。这一涨幅主要受到贸易政策频繁变动和全球经济前景不明的影响。过去一个月,多轮关税声明令全球市场难以建立长期仓位,避险资金因此涌入贵金属市场。

  同时,黄金ETF的持仓持续攀升,显示机构投资者正在不断加码配置黄金。此外,多国央行也在悄然增加黄金储备,以对冲美元波动和地缘风险。

  据市场调查显示,当前包括印度、土耳其及亚洲国家在内的多个新兴市场国家央行均在增加黄金储备,用以分散外汇储备结构。

  美联储降息预期升温支撑金价中期走势

  交易员普遍预计美联储今年将进行至少三次降息,货币宽松政策有望进一步增强黄金的吸引力。低利率环境使得黄金相对于债券和现金类资产更具吸引力,推动其价格走高。

  当前利率预期曲线显示,市场对美联储年内累计降息90个基点的可能性给予高度定价,叠加通胀预期走稳,黄金具备充足上行空间。

  特朗普激化贸易摩擦,多领域政策升级引发系统性担忧

  特朗普不仅对关键矿产发起调查,还对半导体、医药品领域展开政策审查,并在此前已对钢铁、汽车及零部件征收专属关税。市场担心,这一系列措施可能打破全球供应链稳定,最终拖累全球增长。

  高盛集团(GoldmanSachs)预测,在当前多重避险动能支撑下,黄金价格有望在2026年中期触及4000美元/盎司,成为本轮通胀与货币宽松环境下的最大赢家。

  目前来看,全球地缘紧张局势、美元走软、利率下行和市场避险需求正共同构成黄金价格持续上涨的核心逻辑。

  编辑观点:

  当前黄金市场呈现出由“政策不确定性+央行购金+降息预期”共同驱动的结构性牛市格局。特朗普政策变化对全球市场构成深远影响,特别是在关键矿产与科技行业的潜在制裁升级,将进一步打击市场信心。

  在此背景下,黄金作为最后的价值锚点,正被全球资本重新评估。短期来看,若风险资产持续震荡,黄金有望进一步突破3300美元,并向3400美元迈进。

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