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全球股市再度进入高波动阶段!

今天午后,日韩股市再度跳水,日经225指数午后跌幅加速扩大至1.6%,港股市场也陷入调整区间。MSCI亚太指数亦跌超1%。与此同时,美股期指跌幅扩大,纳斯达克100指数期货跌超2%,标普500指数期货跌1.5%,道指期货跌0.75%。近日反弹势头较强的欧洲期指亦是全线走弱。

那么,究竟发生了什么?分析人士认为,这可能与特朗普贸易政策不稳定有着较大关系。首先是英伟达一季度对H20产品计提55亿美元,接着是荷兰半导体设备公司ASML周三公布的净订单量未达到预期,这表明其关键芯片制造机器的需求可能放缓。特朗普的新关税可能使美国半导体设备制造商每年损失超过10亿美元。

值得注意的是,强积金咨询机构GUM表示,3月,强积金资金净转出最多的五大资产类别为美国股票基金、环球股票基金、混合资产基金(80%至100%股票)、未分类股票基金和混合资产基金(60%至80%股票),美股基金吸引力显著下滑。

大跳水

美股期指表现较差的时候,亚太市场也会跟随。今天,亚太交易时段,美股期指持续杀跌,其中,纳斯达克100指数期货跌超2%。

隔夜,特朗普下令对所有美国关键矿产进口产品征收新关税的可能性展开调查,此外还对药品和芯片进口进行了审查。今天早上的消息又称,在美国政府限制出口H20人工智能芯片后,这家芯片巨头面临55亿美元的计提,这使得该股盘后出现大跌。而受此影响,亚太股市今天开盘也较弱。午后,跌幅更是扩大。韩国方面,SK海力士股价下跌逾2%,三星电子股价下跌2.47%。

欧洲市场期指亦是多数杀跌。荷兰半导体设备公司ASML周三公布的净订单量未达到预期,这表明其关键芯片制造机器的需求可能放缓。ASML第一季度净订单额为39.4亿欧元(44.7亿美元),而路透社预测为48.9亿欧元。

ASML首席执行官ChristopheFouquet在财报发布时表示,需求前景“依然强劲”,人工智能仍是关键驱动力。不过,他补充称,“部分客户的不确定性”可能会导致公司全年营收低于预期。

上周,美国政府宣布智能手机、电脑和半导体将暂时免于其对贸易对手方征收的所谓“互惠”关税。但上周日,特朗普及其高级贸易官员却发表言论,声称电子行业不会获得关税“豁免”,这些商品将被转移到另一个“类别”,此举引发了混乱。

资金大幅流出

贸易争端最大的问题并不是其本身,而是其带来的不确定性。由于这种预期的存在,全球投资会逐渐呈现萎缩趋势。这一点已经在股市上有所表现。

强积金咨询机构GUM表示,3月,强积金资金净转出最多的五大资产类别为美国股票基金、环球股票基金、混合资产基金(80%至100%股票)、未分类股票基金和混合资产基金(60%至80%股票)。美股基金吸引力显著下滑,美国股票基金单月流出高达60亿港元,主要受美股估值过高及关税政策不确定性的影响,一跃成为3月份及年初至今净转出最多的资产类别。

3月份内,资金净转入最多的五大资产类别为强积金保守基金、保证基金、香港股票基金(追踪指数)、欧洲股票基金和预设投资策略-核心累积基金。强积金保守基金和保证基金各自连续两个月蝉联单月资金转入的首位及第二位,可见市场避险情绪持续。其中保守基金年初至今净转入已达近90亿港元,若加上保证基金的净转入额,两者年初至今合共吸引超过110亿港元。

另外,特朗普的政策正激起全球反美情绪。高盛集团最新表示,外国游客减少赴美旅游,全球掀起抵制美国货运动,反美情绪今年恐给美国经济造成高达900亿美元的损失,占其GDP的0.3%。海外抵制美国情绪恐严重削弱美国的服务业贸易盈余,去年美国服务业贸易盈余为2930亿美元,并且高度依赖外国游客的消费。

根据美国国际贸易管理局(ITA)周一公布的数据,今年3月份乘飞机抵达美国的非美国公民人数年减近10%。目前最不愿意赴美旅行的是加拿大人。加拿大航空表示,今年4月至9月期间和美国城市之间的跨境航班预订量年减10%。

根据法国舆论研究所(Ifop)对旅游网站nyc.fr进行的调查,62%的法国人支援抵制美国企业,32%的法国人称已开始抵制包括可口可乐、麦当劳、特斯拉、肯德基和X等在内的美国品牌。

美国晨间咨询公司(MorningConsult)的数据显示,今年3月全球对美国的平均好感度较1月下降20个百分点,几乎所有地区都出现下降,其中加拿大下降44个百分点,墨西哥下降32个百分点,加墨两地消费者对美国尤其不满。

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