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  随着碳化硅上游衬底行业持续扩产降价,整个行业面临日益激烈的竞争环境。

  一名碳化硅产业链公司高管对21世纪经济报道记者分析,碳化硅衬底的价格竞争最早主要由海外头部厂商推动,大约自2024年下半年在国内有进一步传导。

  这一方面源于海外大厂在全球范围内积极扩产,但需求量并没有快速填补,导致海外建厂原本就面临产能过量的客观环境;另一方面,全球都在推进更大尺寸碳化硅晶圆商用,这也意味着将有更大规模碳化硅产品进入市场。二者结合,令整体市场供给较为丰盈。

  目前新能源汽车行业是碳化硅芯片的最大下游市场,其次是风光储能。随着价格下行,也有望推进包括数据中心、AR眼镜等新领域拥抱碳化硅产品。对于厂商来说,寻求更可持续的增量发展空间也是重要命题。

  但不可忽视的是,如此竞争也意味着行业中将面临市场格局变换,新一轮抢位赛正在打响。

  持续增长

  在整体汽车芯片市场面临库存压力的背景下,碳化硅器件作为汽车芯片市场的一部分,仍然显现出逆势增长表现。

  国内碳化硅衬底厂商天岳先进2024年度财报显示,公司在当年实现扭亏。期内实现营业总收入17.68亿元,同比增加41.37%;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.79亿元,上一年则是亏损约4572万元。

  芯联集成发布2024年度业绩预告显示,公司2024年碳化硅业务实现收入约10.16亿元。

  不过相比之下,天岳先进的收入年增速有所放缓。2023财年公司收入同比增长199.9%至约12.51亿元,增速远高于2024年。同时,天岳先进的碳化硅衬底年产量增速高于收入增速。公告显示,2024年公司碳化硅衬底产量41.02万片,较2023年增长56.56%,产量屡创历史新高。

  从区域市场来看,公司在境外地区的毛利率水平和增速表现领跑。

  从四个单季度表现来看,天岳先进在第三和第四季度,盈利能力出现一定下滑。这与前一个完整财年的表现迥异,2023年度公司还在着力实现扭亏,第三和第四季度就是单季度开始扭亏的时段。

  这侧面与前述碳化硅芯片领域出现价格竞争的趋势相印证。

  CIC灼识咨询执行董事余怡然告诉21世纪经济报道记者,2024年碳化硅(SiC)晶圆市场经历了显著的价格调整,降价幅度达近30%。具体来说,6英寸SiC衬底的价格在2024年中期已经跌至500美元以下,接近中国制造商的生产成本线,而到了第四季度,价格进一步下降至450美元。

  瀚天天成在港股IPO招股书中提到,2024年,6英寸碳化硅外延芯片的价格约为每片人民币7300元,预计到2029年将降至每片人民币4400元,主要原因是碳化硅衬底价格下降。

  沙利文大中华区合伙人兼董事总经理陆景也对21世纪经济报道记者分析,经过激烈的市场价格竞争,目前主流的导电型碳化硅衬底单价已经出现企稳现象,市场竞争趋于理性。之后碳化硅衬底的单价虽然还会继续下降,但下降的主要原因是工艺技术更加成熟推动良率提升,并且衬底大尺寸化推动单位成本下降。

  落地加速

  随着碳化硅晶圆持续从小尺寸向大尺寸量产推进,将为市场带来更为丰富的碳化硅器件产品。

  据21世纪经济报道记者了解,目前碳化硅上游厂商主要在推动用6英寸晶圆大规模替代4英寸晶圆,8英寸晶圆技术也在走向成熟量产过程中。

  对此,前述高管对21世纪经济报道记者表示,“从应用市场看,碳化硅器件有80%应用在新能源汽车上,这一市场的主力就是中国。因此无论全球如何扩产,重要销售目的地还是中国,我们认为,在这种竞争环境中,最重要是平衡效率和成本问题。”多名业内高管对记者表达了类似观点。

  “个人认为,国产碳化硅产品在今年下半年会出现新一轮6英寸衬底价格竞争,明年会面临8英寸衬底价格竞争。”前述高管对21世纪经济报道记者分析,经过这两轮竞争后,预计行业整合将基本完成,2027年左右新格局将出现。“面临竞争有两个着眼点:技术和成本竞争力。哪怕只比竞争对手好一些,就更具备竞争力,最终‘剩者为王’。”他指出。

  价格下降的另一面是应用空间也在扩大。在碳化硅行业发展早期,相对积极采用这类产品的终端厂商是特斯拉,背后就源于大量终端公司对碳化硅彼时较高的应用成本有所顾虑,同时对安全性等方面也在观望。

  如今已经有更多应用领域对碳化硅投入高关注度。

  瀚天天成在港股招股书中提到,2024年电动汽车使用的碳化硅功率半导体器件占全球市场的74.4%;其次是充电基础设施领域,其于2024年的市场份额为7.8%;可再生能源及储能系统领域亦呈现增长势头。

  对此,陆景对21世纪经济报道记者表示,碳化硅衬底成本持续下降,尤其是单位成本持续下降,会加快碳化硅功率器件对硅基IGBT等功率半导体产品的替代,尤其是在高压领域,例如新能源汽车、数据中心、光伏储能等场景。

  “我们认为,目前碳化硅对硅基功率器件的取代趋势比较明显。除了汽车领域之外,工业控制也在导入这类产品,碳化硅工业级MOSFET正在大量取代硅基MOSFET。”前述高管对记者补充道。

  当然在此环境下,国内碳化硅器件公司仍需加速努力以拥抱这一机会。陆景对记者指出,目前国内头部碳化硅衬底厂商的技术实力比较接近海外厂商,但全球碳化硅功率器件市场仍由海外厂商占据主导地位,国内厂商还存在一定技术和规模差距。“随着国产厂商技术能力提升以及国际贸易政策影响,国内碳化硅器件厂商的市场占比有望持续提升。”

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