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  金十数据

  周一(4月21日)开盘后现货黄金持续走高,截止发稿,现货黄金突破3350美元/盎司,逼近历史新高,日内涨0.65%。同时,美元指数跌破99关口,为2022年4月以来首次,日内跌0.24%。

  稍早前,特朗普再发惊人言论。他在社交平台上表示,“谈判与成功的黄金法则:拥有黄金者制定规则。”另外,他还表示,“批评关税的商人不擅长商业,但真正不擅长的是政治。他们不理解也没有意识到我是美国资本主义有史以来最好的朋友!”考虑到之前特朗普在社交媒体上关于股票的喊话导致的市场波动,这则关于黄金的帖子耐人寻味。

  另外,根据高盛的对冲基金业务负责人托尼-帕斯夸里埃洛(TonyPasquariello)在稍早前一份报告中的分析,全球资本流动的故事正在成为市场关注的重点,规模与影响力不容忽视。

  高盛给出了美元将大幅下跌的三大逻辑:

  美元被高估了20%这种高估源于美国的“例外主义”——过去10多年,美国优越的资产回报吸引了来自全球的资本流入。

  关税影响将对美国企业利润和家庭支出产生不成比例的打击由于关税的设计及其逐步推出的方式,它们将对美国企业的利润和家庭的购买力产生巨大压力——这两者一直是支撑美国“例外主义”的引擎,而关税正在破坏强势美元的根基。

  这一次,局势更像英国脱欧而非第一次贸易战这次是美国与世界的对抗,使得外汇市场成为焦点,尤其是日元和欧元。这是一个资本账户的故事,大部分资本流入正是来自这里。

  高盛还提醒要注意两个关键数据:

  2.2万亿美元:这是全球金融危机后,美国未对冲的美元超配金额(根据一篇详细的学术论文数据)。

  20%:这是欧元从2017年1月到2018年1月底期间的波动幅度,这也是我们上次看到显著资金流动轮换的时间。

  高盛还给出了一些补充说明:

  我们预期这不会是完全的资产轮换:我们预计这将通过边际需求的变化来体现,而不是对现有美国资产的剧烈抛售。

  相对价格调整主导再分配:很多再分配将通过相对价格调整,而非大量的主动资金流动来完成。

  这主要是股市故事:强劲的美国股市表现是美元超配的主要原因。

  本质上是外汇故事:从根本上说,我们讨论的是国际收支平衡,而技术上缺乏替代投资可能会导致一些投资者简单地对冲外汇敞口(卖出美元,但保持底层资产)。

  美元这些超配分配需要多年积累,也需要时间来解除:然而,值得注意的是,长期投资者的参与程度很高,我们已经从数据中看到了一些变化,虽然数据还很稀少。

  以下是高盛给出的六张关键图示:

  推动美元走高的跨境资金流动出现裂缝的迹象。

  目前,主要是欧元区投资者在抛售美国股票,其他地区仍在稳步购买美国资产。

  外国投资者并未普遍抛售美国国债。虽然他们出售了长期国债(红线),但这些资金首先流入了短期国债(蓝线)。避险效应仍在发挥作用。

  本轮调整的起点,是美国资产在全球投资组合中所占的比例处于历史最高点。

  这在现实中会是什么样子?资产关联性出现断裂。

  货币的持续波动超过其他资产类别。这张图展示了2017年的情况——欧元兑美元的表现最终“超出”其与利差的通常相关性20个百分点,与此同时,大量未对冲的资金流入欧元区股票。

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贵州茅台发布《致广大人才的一封信》:努力在危机中育新机、于变局中开新局马来西亚:考虑购买中国飞机茅台集团:过去一年多措并举引进400余名博硕英才扎根茅台300630,终止上市!日本贸易谈判代表头戴“MAGA”帽竖起大拇指热点涌现!A股并购重组持续活跃“起床后第一件事就是看金价”!有人贷款17万买黄金,网友形容:借钱蹦极!泽连斯基:俄军试图营造一种停火假象
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  • 美国商家:不是阵痛,而是猝死 永贵电器:2024年归母净利润1.26亿元,同比增长24.47% 150亿重庆水果帝国,走向崩盘 腾远钴业:拟设合资公司并在刚果(金)投建铜、钴湿法冶炼厂项目 贵州茅台发布《致广大人才的一封信》:努力在危机中育新机、于变局中开新局马来西亚:考虑购买中国飞机茅台集团:过去一年多措并举引进400余名博硕英才扎根茅台300630,终止上市!日本贸易谈判代表头戴“MAGA”帽竖起大拇指热点涌现!A股并购重组持续活跃“起床后第一件事就是看金价”!有人贷款17万买黄金,网友形容:借钱蹦极!泽连斯基:俄军试图营造一种停火假象 爆发抗议!特朗普最新支持率公布 一场马拉松,引爆周末!多只机器人概念股获增持,基金经理:3年100倍一季度权益基金高仓位运作,科技股成基金经理“香饽饽”消息称美国劳工部员工反对DOGE访问敏感数据被解雇东润公益基金会创始人孔冬梅:推动构建生育友好型的社会迫在眉睫中信建投:短期红利占优,市场静待买点刘煜辉:每一次剧烈博弈,都是中国核心资产倒车接人的重要机会视频|巴菲特:芒格只跟我拍过两次桌子,其中一次就是因为比亚迪。妙可蓝多柴琇:坚定新品类开拓,打造确定性增长田轩:用金融手段、工具支持科技创新 关税等政策冲击,3月赴美游客锐减近12%美国政坛出现罕见一幕:三位前总统接连公开谴责特朗普政府及其政策仓位“大开大合” ,“老基金”,精准择时!大幅下调美股目标价,华尔街“撕报告”,但仍然坚持“今年会涨”美国政府将6000多移民标记已死亡:影响其领取社会福利和拥有合法工作的权利 《封神2》,紧急声明!机器人马拉松夺冠后,他们要量产了!视频|美国痴迷于搞垮中国?萨克斯:关税战 中国能赢1分钟充20度电!华为再掀超充风暴,充电站秒变“加油站”腾讯混元负责人陈妍:重视数据!不希望下一代吃的是大模型吐出来的垃圾第一资本获批收购发现金融 或成为美国最大信用卡公司 长药控股:2024年归母净利润亏损6.28亿元DHL从4月21日起暂停向美个人发送超800美元货件信达证券:低成交量并不是利空信号民生证券:预期或将回摆 机构密集调研5G概念股!多股20CM涨停,4月迄今接待量居前热门股名单 天禾股份:横琴粤科及公司董秘拟合计减持公司不超0.37%股份