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盘锦市(大洼区、盘山县、双台子区、兴隆台区)

摩根大通策略师认为,今年下半年将有入市机会,但现阶段言之尚早。

由MislavMatejka领导的策略师团队在报告中指出:「我们维持看法,下半年某个时候会买入美股,但目前波动料未完结。」

尽管近期获90天关税暂缓及个别豁免,但整体市况仍然充满挑战。

美国实际关税率已由2024年的2.3%急升至23%,股市尚未完全反映下行风险。

策略师团队指出:「市况已较年初大部分人预期更差。」标指从2月高位跌13%,远期市盈率仍处于19倍,这种水平通常出现在经济转差初期而非尾声。

他们认为市场对衰退风险的反应不足。过去五次衰退中,标指由顶至底平均跌37%,远期市盈率更跌至12倍。

相比之下,目前估值倍数仍高,意味股市仍有下调空间。

Matejka指出,虽然恐慌指数(VIX)近期急升后出现技术性反弹,但在经济下滑期间,这种反弹往往昙花一现。「若无衰退,标指三个月内有望录得升幅,但若出现衰退,升市机会仅得两成。」

因此,该行暂持审慎态度,看好必需品、医疗保健和公用事业等防守性板块,同时回避高贝塔风险如增长股和「Mag-7」科技股。

「要持续增持并跨越技术性反弹,我们认为需要三个条件:关税消息趋稳、美国政府换届预期落实,以及美联储转鸽。但后者或需等到就业市场转弱才会出现。」

区域布局方面,策略师预料在动荡时期,环球市场表现将优于以往,理由是估值较吸引、财政支持较强,且较少倚重科技带动增长。

该行还认为,美元这次难以担当避险角色,或进一步支持海外市场的抗跌力。

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